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New Zealand dollar/USD bears dominate, upward resistance is significant
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: New York dollar/USD shorts dominate, with significant upward resistance". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
During the European session on Thursday (August 21), the New York dollar/USD overall showed a volatile pattern, with no clear unilateral upward or downward trend. Prices fluctuate repeatedly within a certain range, and long-short forces are playing in stages, and there has not yet been a continuous directional guide.
Since late Tuesday, the New York dollar started a downward trend, and the exchange rate continued to fall in the past 24 hours. The 0.58190 mark has been repeatedly tested, and the low position trend has become increasingly obvious. New Zealand dollar/dollar trading is near the four-month low.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3.0%, and said the interest rate could drop further to 2.55% in May 2026.
Analysts now expect at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year. According to the upcoming economic data, further interest rate cuts are likely.
New Zealand exports are also under pressure, especially as the U.S. 15% tariff, which came into effect earlier this month, threatens the country's xmmarkets.cnpetitiveness in key markets. According to Reuters, Citi analysts expect GDP to shrink in the second quarter, increasing the risk of a recession in New Zealand.
Analysis of the NZD/USD on August 21: Shorts control the market
In the past few months, the NZD/USD exchange rate has generally shown a "short tendency", but this decline does not provide a stable one-way channel for day traders. The pair continues its typical high volatility feature, with a sharp reversal during this period - this fluctuation is enough to test the patience and determination of speculators who try to follow the trend and bet on the exchange rate trend, and also makes it significantly more difficult for traders to judge the currency pair.
As of now, New York dollar/USDThe exchange rate hovers around 0.58190. For most trading sessions on Tuesday, the pair remained above 0.59200, but selling pressure began to accumulate later that day, and the exchange rate quickly approached and under pressure toward the 0.59000 mark. During trading on Wednesday (Yesterday), the NZD/USD sold further intensified: when the 0.58800 support level was confirmed to be lost, the exchange rate fell rapidly.
0.58200 is the short-term focus, and future trend outlook
From the correlation perspective, the trend of the New York dollar/USD maintains a certain degree of linkage with the overall foreign exchange market - other major currencies are under pressure against the US dollar recently. However, from a technical analysis, the downward trend of the New Zealand dollar/USD in the past month not only reflects the phenomenon of "institutions selling the currency pair when the market is panicked overall", but the deeper reason is that financial institutions are dissatisfied with New Zealand's recent economic data, and are also skeptical of the domestic fiscal policy implemented by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The current exchange rate has fallen below the 0.59000 mark and fluctuates around 0.58190, and the 0.58200 mark has become the core of short-term market attention. Global financial institutions are currently cautious in their sentiment, mainly affected by the Federal Reserve's dynamics: the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Seminar was held today, and this important meeting has attracted high attention from the market. In the past few days, foreign exchange and other asset classes around the world have shown the volatility characteristics of "dollar centralization", and the overall market attitude is hesitant.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut in September, but the current market forecasts are very different and uncertain.
Neuro/USD short-term trading: risks and opportunities under high volatility
In the past few days, NYD/USD has fully demonstrated its "high volatility, fast-paced" trading attributes. For bullish investors, a potential concern is that from a technical perspective, the low exchange rate trend is being consolidated and the sustainability of the downward trend is increasing.
The current low of the New York dollar/USD is the lowest since the second week of April this year.
The New York dollar has performed relatively weaker recently xmmarkets.cnpared to most other major currencies in the forex market.
For traders who believe that "NZD/USD has been oversold", it is recommended to be cautious - the current seemingly oversold market may not be a reversal signal.
Although the current low may cause some investors to "buy at the bottom and bet on the exchange rate rebound", it is still very challenging to accurately grasp the start time of the upward market under the current trend of the New York dollar/USD.
It is expected that "cautious" will continue to be the main tone of market trading today and tomorrow.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Market Review]: New York dollar/USD short leads, with significant upward resistance". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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