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The U.S. GDP fell unexpectedly in the first quarter, and the U.S. index fell below 97 for a while
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US GDP unexpectedly revised downward in the first quarter, and the US index fell below 97 for a time." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 27, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.369. On Thursday, the dollar index fell below 97 intraday, the first time since March 2022, and finally closed down 0.37% at 97.35 points as media reports said Trump was considering announcing Powell's successor as early as September. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2390%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7280%. The 5-year/30-year yield difference in the United States exceeded 101 basis points, the steepest since 2021. The U.S. GDP unexpectedly fell in the first quarter, but initial data and actual personal consumption expenditure were favorable to gold prices. Spot gold remained stable, and fell back after hitting the intraday high of $3,350, and finally closed down 0.17% to close at $3,327.68/ounce; spot silver hit its highest level since June 18, and finally closed up 0.99% to $36.60/ounce. Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday as the summer driving season arrived, U.S. crude oil inventories fell due to increased demand. WTI crude oil closed up 0.43% to $65.16 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.47% to $67.91 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.36. Because policy tensions between Trump and Powell have curbed their risk aversion needs. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that before considering rate cuts, central banks need more time to measure the impact of tariffs on inflation. Technically, the most recent support level of the US dollar index is in the range of 96.70–96.90. Break below this level will push the U.S. dollar index to the next support level of 95.40 –95.60.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Friday, gold trading around 3314.80. Gold is struggling to rebound despite the dollar approaching a three-and-a-half-year low and U.S. Treasury yields plummeted. ??
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Friday, crude oil trading was around 64.86. Investors cheered and oil prices plummeted after Israel and Iran announced a formal ceasefire agreement on Tuesday. The Middle East tensions that broke out when Israel attacked Iran on June 12 highlighted the sensitivity of prices to potential damage to the Strait of Hormuz. WTI oil fell by about $10.00 a barrel in 24 hours as the market accepted the possibility of a truce between Israel and Iran. However, the inventory report released this week shifts attention to supply and demand dynamics. WTI's price peaked at $76.74 on Monday before falling to a low of $63.73 on Tuesday. Wednesday's EIA report showed oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the past week, surpassing analysts' expectations of 600K barrels.
Forex market trading reminder on June 27, 2025
14:45France June CPI monthly rate initial value
17:00Eurozone June industrial prosperity index
17:00Eurozone June economic prosperity index
19:30Feder Williams presided over the meeting
20:30Canada April GDP monthly rate
20:30U.S. core PCE price index annual rate
20:30U.S. core personal expenditure monthly rate
20:30U.S. core PCE Price Index Monthly Rate
21:15 Federal Reserve Hamak and Director Cook attended the event
22:00 Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June
22:00 Expected Final Value of the U.S. One-year inflation rate in June
The next day 01:00 Total oil drilling in the week from the United States to June 27
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