US discusses easing sanctions on Iran, gold prices remain stable and waiting for US economic data, EU considers lowering tariffs on US

Basic news

On Friday (June 27, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,323/ounce, gold prices remained stable on Thursday, investors were waiting for U.S. inflation data to judge interest rate outlook, while paying attention to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; U.S. crude oil trading was around $65.40/barrel, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. With the arrival of the summer driving season, U.S. crude oil inventories have declined due to increased demand, while concerns about supply risks in the Middle East have eased, limiting gains.

Focus on this day

Feder Williams presided over the meeting at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Meeting, and Fed Hamake and Fed Director Lisa Cook attended the "Feder Listening" event.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their historical closing highs as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran continues and a range of economic indicators appear to support the Fed to reduce borrowing costs this year. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board on Thursday and are expected to record weekly gains.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently just one step away from their historical closing highs, and the market once looked to be expected to set a record as the trading day approached. "Obviously, forwarding the rate cut to 2025 is one of the important factors in market price movements, and now it is expected that there will be three cuts this year."

Bank stocks performed well after the Federal Reserve announced a proposal to relax leverage regulation to reduce the holdings of large banks for relatively low-risk assets," said Bill Northey, senior investment director at Bank of America Wealth Management.capital requirements. The S&P 500 Bank Index rose 1.6%. Baird investment strategy analyst Ross Mayfield said the pledge to deregulate when the administration came to power is not just an example, but a signal that there may be more similar measures in the future.

Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin cautioned not to give up his choice easily when economic uncertainty persists, but added that he does not expect tariffs to "inflation as many fear."

San Fed Chairman Daley said a weaker tariff effect could help justify rate cuts this fall. Boston Fed President Collins said on Wednesday that she tends to cut interest rates later this year amid uncertain economic outlook.

Federal Chairman Powell reiterated the Fed's wait-and-see position at a two-day congressional hearing and will wait for the impact of tariffs to make a clear decision before deciding whether and how much interest rate cuts will be cut. Financial markets currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, while the likelihood of a first rate cut this year in September is more than 75%.

Northey added: "From the economic data, including labor market, economic activity and price levels, we find it appropriate to further relax policies by the end of this year. The problem remains the extent of the first rate cut, and more importantly, the timing." Last week, the Federal Reserve released its latest "Economic Forecast Summary", which shows that policymakers expect to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points for the rest of the year. A series of economic data showed that GDP in the first quarter contracted more than previously published estimates as consumer spending fell below expectations, and the number of renewed unemployment benefits reached its highest level in years, indicating a possible crack in the labor market. On the other hand, the sales data for durable wealth orders and the waiting-to-be-completed houses are far higher than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.94% to 43,386.84 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.80% to 6141.02 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.97% to 20167.91 points.

Gold market

Gold prices remained stable on Thursday, with investors waiting for U.S. inflation data to judge interest rate outlook, while paying attention to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with palladium and platinum rising sharply. Spot gold remained flat at $3333 per ounce. US gold futures rose 0.2%, with a settlement price of $3,348.

David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "Gold prices have fallen in the past few trading days due to the easing of the situation in the Middle East. In addition, Trump's tariff measures have led to higher inflation expectations, and the market's eagerly anticipated rate cuts have also been postponed, which has also brought pressure on gold prices."

The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year from September, totaling 50 basis points. Investor's objectivesI was looking at Friday's Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) price index to find more clues about the Fed's policy path.

Spot silver rose nearly 1%, hitting its highest level since June 18, of $36.63. "If silver does break through $37.50, then there is potential for continued gains," said Michael Matousek, chief trader at USGlobal Investors.

Palladium jumped more than 8% to $1,136.68, after hitting its highest since October 31, 2024. Platinum rose 5.1% to $1,423.26, close to its highest since September 2014.

Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, said: "The stronger price of platinum and palladium is just a phenomenon in June, reflecting speculative buying, and some investors have increased their inventory, believing that prices have been undervalued in light of the market."

The World Platinum Investment xmmarkets.cnmission (WPIC) reported in May that China's demand for platinum jewelry has exacerbated the structural market gap. Christian added that platinum prices could hit $1,500 per ounce in the xmmarkets.cning days and fell to $1,200 in two weeks, with palladium likely to fall back to around $1,050 per ounce by mid-July. Oil market

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday as U.S. crude oil inventories fell due to increased demand as the summer driving season approached, while concerns about supply risks in the Middle East were alleviated, limiting gains.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.07% to $67.73 a barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 0.49% to $65.24 a barrel. Crude oil prices both climbed nearly 1% on Wednesday after data showed strong U.S. demand, rebounding from a decline earlier this week. Brent crude oil futures traded below the June 12 closing price of $69.36, the day before Israel began its air strikes.

ANZ analysts say the U.S. driving season has started very slowly but is now stimulating demand.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced Wednesday that U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell in the week ending June 20 as refining activity and demand rose. The EIA said crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels, exceeding the 797,000 barrels expected by analysts in a Reuters survey.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, also supports oil prices, as reports say U.S. President Trump plans to choose the next Fed chairman ahead of schedule, fueling new bets on U.S. interest rate cuts.

The weakening of the dollar has caused oil to lower prices for holders of other currencies, increasing demand. However, signs of mitigation in supply risks in the Middle East offset some of the gains.

Trump welcomes Iran and Israel to end the war quickly and statesWashington may seek Tehran's xmmarkets.cnmitment to abandon its nuclear ambitions in talks with Iranian officials next week.

Foreign market

The dollar fell sharply against the euro and pound on Thursday, falling to its lowest level in three and a half years, as traders expected the Fed rate cut to a greater extent than previously expected, triggering widespread selling of the dollar.

Eric Theoret, a Forex strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, said: "The focus this week is certainly on the Fed, and the prospect of a faster easing of policy and potentially more rate cuts."

Feder Chairman Powell was interpreted as more dovish when he testified in the U.S. Congress this week. He reiterated expectations that inflation should rise this summer, but said "we will cut interest rates as soon as possible" if price pressures continue to be curbed.

Noel Dixon, global macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, said: "Powell has opened the door to a possible rate cut in July," said. "If the next announced consumer price inflation rate is lower than market expectations, "I think the market will start pricing the possibility of a rate cut in July."

FedFunds futures traders set the probability of a rate cut in July at 23%, up from 13% a week ago, while the probability of a rate cut in September was 93%. Overall, traders believe the rate cut was 66 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points last Friday, indicating a third 25 basis point cut.

U.S. President Trump will nominate a new Fed chairman next year, and he is expected to be more dovish than Powell, whose term ends in May.

Trump called Powell "terrible" on Wednesday and said he had three or four xmmarkets.cnpetitors to the highest Fed position in mind. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Trump has begun considering picking and announcing Powell's successor by September or October.

Analysts say the candidate can operate as a shadow Fed chairman to weaken Powell's influence. Chicago Fed President Goulsby said that even if U.S. President Trump nominates a candidate to replace current Fed Chairman Powell, the move will not have any impact on monetary policy until the nominee is confirmed.

The euro rose 0.51% at $1.1719, reaching a high of $1.1744, the highest since September 2021. The pound rose 0.62% to $1.3748, reaching a high of $1.3770, the highest since October 2021.

The Swiss franc hit a 10-and-a-half-year high, at 1 US dollar to 0.799 Swiss franc. The dollar fell 0.72% against 144.2 yen.

Investors are currently paying close attention to the Trump administration’s self-determined July 9 deadline, which is intended to reach an agreement with trading partners to avoid mutual tariffs.

The U.S. Congress is also enacting a tax and expenditure bill, with the Senate aiming to pass by July 4The bill. Dixon said the dollar would be boosted if fiscal stimulus in the bill boosted economic growth and lowered the deficit to GDP. He said that before that, the budget deficit and current account deficit were negative for the US dollar.

In the long run, the dollar is also under pressure due to concerns among international investors about the economy and the dollar's outlook.

Theoret said: "The result of the excellent performance of U.S. assets over the past decade is that many asset managers have long positions in the U.S. dollar far exceeds their real peace of mind."

International News

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent asked Congress to remove the "899 retaliation tax clause"

The U.S. Treasury Department announced an agreement with G7 allies that will protect U.S. xmmarkets.cnpanies from taxes imposed by some countries. In exchange, the Trump administration will remove the "899 retaliation tax clause" from the "Big and American" tax reform bill. "The global minimum tax policy under the OECD Pillar II framework will not apply to U.S. xmmarkets.cnpanies. We will work with other OECD-G20 Inclusive Framework members to jointly implement this agreement in the xmmarkets.cning weeks and months." He added that based on this progress and consensus, I have asked the Senate and House of Representatives to remove the protective clause "899". This clause is mainly aimed at allies that implement digital service tax on U.S. technology xmmarkets.cnpanies or participate in the global corporate minimum tax rate mechanism. Wall Street has previously worried that the policy would reduce the willingness of foreign individuals and businesses to invest in the United States.

The possibility of interest rate cuts in July is bleak. Many Fed officials tend to continue to wait and see

This week, several Fed officials made it clear that it will take several more months to determine that the price increase caused by tariffs will not continue to push up inflation. Remarks by director Christopher Waller and vice-chairman Michelle Bowman, who is in charge of oversight, earlier attracted attention, saying they may support a rate cut at a July meeting if inflation remains under control. However, nearly 12 policy makers, including Chairman Powell, New York Fed President John Williams, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have poured cold water on this view. In addition, three regional Fed presidents have also hinted that they are not ready to cut interest rates at their next meeting. Powell testified in Congress on Tuesday that the Fed may have started to cut interest rates now if it weren't for the uncertainty of future price outlook due to tariffs, and the Fed may have started to cut interest rates only based on the decline in inflation. But there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates at this time.

Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran has no plan to restart nuclear negotiations at present

On the 26th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragic said that Iran has no plan to restart nuclear negotiations. Aragic said that some speculation about restarting negotiations should not be taken too seriously. He made it clear that no agreement, arrangement or dialogue has been reached to initiate new negotiations and Iran has not yet formulated any plans to initiate negotiations. Aragic said,Under the established policy, if Israel stops attacks unconditionally, Iran will terminate its response. Because Israel is the initiator of the conflict, and Iran only defends itself. Therefore, once Israel stops attacking, Iran does not have to continue its defense operations. Aragic stressed that Iran's position is not to accept the ceasefire agreement, but if Israel stops attacking, Iran will no longer continue its military operations. Aragic said that given Israel's consistent past record of conduct, it often unilaterally violates the agreement after announcing a ceasefire and tries to prevent the other party from taking response measures. But Iran is different from Lebanon. If the ceasefire agreement is violated, Iran will give a decisive and immediate response.

The EU summit did not reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia

On June 26 local time, EU leaders issued a statement on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although the statement emphasized that the EU would increase pressure and introduce a new round of sanctions if necessary, including limiting Russia's energy income, it did not introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia as expected. Documents released by the European Council show that 26 heads of state or government of the EU expressed clear support for this. The statement also said that the EU called on member states to strengthen the supply of Ukrainian air defense systems, anti-drone equipment and large-caliber ammunition. The EU also supports accelerating the development of Ukraine's defense industry and promoting its integration with the European defense industry. The EU announced that it will provide Ukraine with 30.6 billion euros in financial aid in 2025, of which 3.5 billion has been distributed through the "Ukrainian Aid Tool" and 7 billion interest from frozen Russian assets.

The EU considers reducing tariffs on goods imported from the United States

People familiar with the matter revealed that the EU is considering reducing tariffs on a range of U.S. imported goods in order to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump. EU leaders are scheduled to hold a meeting in Brussels on Thursday night local time to discuss how much concessions they are willing to win Trump’s support. Other preferential measures under consideration include lowering non-tariff barriers and increasing purchases of products such as U.S. liquefied natural gas. Sources familiar with the negotiations said many European officials and diplomats have now accepted the reality that the Trump administration is unintentionally revoked the 10% benchmark tariff and instead focus on fighting for as many exemptions as possible to mitigate the economic impact of these and other tariffs. Germany and Italy are leading the way to push the EU to quickly reach a preliminary agreement with the United States. Such agreements may only take a few pages and details can be updated in subsequent negotiations, people familiar with the matter said.

White House: Trump will not make a decision on the candidate for the next Fed Chairman in the near future

The White House said that Trump will not make a decision on the candidate for the successor of Fed Chairman Powell in the near future. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may choose Powell's successor as early as this summer. White House officials said Thursday that a decision will not be made for the time being, although the president has the right to change his mind at any time. The official said Trump has several outstanding candidates to offer. Powell's term as chairman will not end until May 2026, so it is rare to select successors in advance.

The United States discusses easing sanctions on Iran to return to the negotiating table

According to xmmarkets.cnN, four people familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration has discussed that it may help Iran obtain up to $30 billion in funds for civilian nuclear projects, easing sanctions and unfreezing billions of dollars of restricted Iranian funds—all part of its efforts to push Tehran to return to the negotiating table. Sources said that despite the intensive military strikes against Iran in the past two weeks, key figures in the United States and the Middle East have held secret consultations with Iran. Discussions continue this week after the ceasefire agreement was reached. Trump administration officials stressed that several proposals have been made, which are in their initial stages and are still evolving, but there is a core condition that is not negotiable: Iran will xmmarkets.cnpletely stop uranium enrichment activities, which is exactly what Iran has always claimed to need. But two sources described to xmmarkets.cnN that at least one preliminary draft proposal contains several incentives for Iran. Trump administration officials and people familiar with the matter revealed to xmmarkets.cnN that the terms under discussion include: an estimated investment of $20-30 billion in Iran's newly built non-concentrated nuclear energy project for civilian energy purposes. One official insists that the funds will not xmmarkets.cne directly from the United States, but rather tend to let Arab allies pay for it.

Netanyahu hopes to meet with Trump to confirm the next move

According to AXIOS, three Israeli officials revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hopes to meet with President Trump at the White House in the xmmarkets.cning weeks to celebrate the U.S.-Israel joint bombing of Iran’s nuclear program. Two Israeli officials said Netanyahu's advisers had had preliminary discussions with White House officials about possible visits, but no specific date has been set. Such meetings will provide opportunities for leaders on both sides to consolidate their narrative about the success of Iran’s operations and to discuss joint next steps in the region. An Israeli official revealed that the visit could take place in the second week of July.

Domestic News

National Development and Reform xmmarkets.cnmission: Research and formulate relevant policies to encourage domestic reinvestment of foreign-invested enterprises, and promote overseas investment cooperation steadily and orderly

On June 27, the Party Group of the National Development and Reform xmmarkets.cnmission published an article in the Study Times, pointing out that further xmmarkets.cnprehensively deepen reform and opening up. We will ensure the implementation of the tasks of economic system reform. Deepen the construction of a unified national market, carry out actions to clean up and rectify market access barriers, promote high-quality development of investment promotion, deepen bidding reform, and accelerate the creation of a market-oriented, law-based and international first-class business environment. Taking the issuance and implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law as an opportunity, we will promote the implementation of various support and guarantee measures in detail. Continuously deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises and deeply promote the optimization of the layout and structural adjustment of the state-owned economy. Expand high-level opening up to the outside world. Accelerate the improvement of the high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road" mechanism. Innovate and improve service trade, and study and launch a number of new opening-up measures in the fields of telecommunications, education, culture, medical care, finance, etc. Research and formulate relevant policies to encourage domestic reinvestment of foreign-invested enterprises to promote overseas investment cooperation in a safe and orderly manner.

National Development and Reform xmmarkets.cnmission: Optimize the investment and investment in the central budget, and speed up the issuance of the central budget investment plan

The Party Group of the National Development and Reform xmmarkets.cnmission issued a document in the Study Times, pointing out that efforts should be made to expand effective investment. Increase efforts to implement the "two-level" construction. Coordinate "hard investment" and "soft construction", organize and implement with high standards, and at the same time improve the investment mechanism, improve investment efficiency, and ensure that all tasks of the "two-level" construction are done and xmmarkets.cnpleted. Make good use of various government investment tools in a coordinated manner. Optimize the investment and investment directions within the central budget, speed up the issuance of investment plans within the central budget, implement the "negative list" of local government special bond investment directions and the "positive list" for the scope of project capital, and actively and steadily carry out the "self-review and spontaneous" pilot project. Establish new policy-based financial tools to further solve the problem of insufficient capital and supporting funds for project construction. Support and encourage the development of private investment. Increase efforts to promote high-quality projects to private capital. Standardize the implementation of new government-social capital cooperation (PPP) mechanisms.

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