The EU faces trade choices, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 26

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.28%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.47%. The German DAX index rose 0.38%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.38%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.17%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.04%.

2. Market news interpretation

The EU faces trade choices

⑴ EU leaders met on June 26, 2025 to discuss whether to support the rapid conclusion of the US-EU trade agreement or strive for better terms. ⑵Most leaders tend to quickly deal in order to take subsequent balancing measures. ⑶ German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz supports the European xmmarkets.cnmission to quickly reach a US-EU trade agreement, emphasizing that Europe is facing a critical period. ⑷ The European xmmarkets.cnmission will ask leaders of 27 member states how they respond to Trump's July 9 trade agreement deadline. ⑸ The United States currently imposes a 10% tariff on most EU goods, and threatens that if negotiations delay, the tariffs may rise to 50%. ⑹Belgian Prime Minister Bart DeWeaver supports the European xmmarkets.cnmission's calm negotiation method. If the final result is unilateral unfair tariffs, the EU needs to take corresponding countermeasures. ⑺The EU has faced a 50% import tariff on its steel and aluminum, a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts, and a 10% tariff on most other goods. ⑻The U.S.-UK trade agreement has been xmmarkets.cnpleted, but 10% of the widespread tariffs remain, and U.S. officials say they will not cut itLow. ⑼Some EU leaders want to protect businesses and accept a 10% tariff baseline. ⑽The EU faces the question of whether to take its own balance measures on the US tariff baseline. It has agreed but has not implemented tariffs on 21 billion euros of US goods, and is still discussing tariff plans for up to 95 billion euros of US imported goods. ⑾One of the EU's balanced options is to impose taxes on digital advertising, which will affect the US tech giants and reduce the US surplus in service trade. ⑿Urban leaders will also ease Slovakia and Hungary’s concerns over the EU’s plan to phase out all Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027, with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzow demanding a postponement of the vote on sanctions against Russia before resolving Slovakia’s concerns.

Russian banking industry is worried about the xmmarkets.cning of debt crisis

According to Bloomberg, Russian banking officials said that Russia's economic outlook is deteriorating, more serious than publicly acknowledged, and the risk of a systemic banking crisis in the next 12 months does exist. Russian banks are increasingly worried about the level of bad debt on their balance sheets, according to officials and documents. People familiar with the matter said they privately warned a large number of corporate and retail customers. Current and former banking officials privately said the situation in Russia is dangerous and said that if the situation does not improve, the risk of the debt crisis spreading to Russia's financial sector next year is increasing. Some people familiar with the matter said official data may have masked the true severity of the debt problem. An internal report from a large bank shows borrowers are postponing repayments, and although public data has not shown serious problems, the reality is that more loans are not being paid as planned. Banks estimate that the scale of bad debts has reached trillions of rubles.

LNG transport ship appears near the Russian Arctic LNG2 project for the first time in months

A LNG transport ship appears to be heading towards the Russian Arctic LNG export plant, which may be the latest effort Moscow has made to restart its eight-month shutdown facility. A liquefied natural gas tanker named Iris is expected to arrive at the Arctic LNG plant late Thursday, according to ship tracking data. The last time the plant exported liquefied natural gas was last October. Whether the ship will still dock at the Arctic LNG 2 facility or load fuel is uncertain. Russia plans to triple LNG exports by 2030, but the plan has been hampered by restrictions from the United States and Europe. If the Arctic LNG 2 project resumes exports, it will indicate that Moscow is still keen to expand supply and find customers willing to buy.

Market turmoil drives a surge in foreign exchange trading volume of Citi hedge funds

Trump announced the implementation of large-scale "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, which triggered the largest single-day electronic trading volume in Citigroup's global foreign exchange team's history. Such sudden market turmoil and the bank's investment in talent and technology have driven the foreign exchange trading volume of Citi hedge fund clients by $1 trillion. The business grew by about 23% over the same period last year, reaching the latest growth rate.$6.1 trillion recorded. Citi has long been known for its strong strength in the forex trading sector, mainly due to its extensive connections with the world's largest enterprises and government agencies. The bank is now trying to expand its client base by increasing its share of hedge fund trading through its system. Although the bank has not disclosed foreign exchange business data separately, according to analysts summarized by foreign media, such growth rate will far exceed the overall growth expectations of fixed income, foreign exchange and xmmarkets.cnmodity (FICC) businesses in 2027.

French public debt exceeded 3.3 trillion euros

French National Institute of Statistics and Economics released data on June 26, showing that as of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the total amount of French public debt rose to 3345.8 billion euros, accounting for 114% of GDP, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the end of last year. The French National Institute of Statistics and Economics pointed out that the increase in debt this quarter mainly came from the increase in central government borrowings and the widening gap in revenue and expenditure of the Social Security Fund. Public debt increased by 40.5 billion euros xmmarkets.cnpared to the end of 2024. Previously, the French government announced a 10 billion euro reduction in public spending due to its fiscal deficit exceeding the EU's prescribed ceiling. The data reflects that despite the beginning of xmmarkets.cnpression of spending, the pressure on France to control its debt and deficit remains severe.

The number of German corporate bankruptcies reached the highest level in a decade

⑴ On June 26, data released by economic tracking agency Creditreform on Thursday showed that in the first half of 2025, the number of German corporate bankruptcies reached the highest level in a decade as xmmarkets.cnpanies in Europe's largest economy struggled to cope with weak demand, rising costs and uncertainty. ⑵ The agency said that a total of 11,900 corporate bankruptcies were registered in the first half of this year, an increase of 9.4% over the same period last year. ⑶Creditreform chief economist Patrick Ludwig Hanzsch said: "Germany is still in a serious economic and structural crisis." ⑷ He also added that as the financial reserves of enterprises gradually exhaust and loans are sometimes no longer delayed, xmmarkets.cnpanies have more and more problems. ⑸ Hanzsch warned that the risk of bankruptcy remained high for the rest of the year as Germany has been in a recession for the past two years and is not expected to have a significant recovery. ⑹It is expected that the economy will gain more momentum until next year with the government's 500 billion euros (about 586 billion US dollars) investment funds taking effect. ⑺The agency said about 141,000 employees worked in affected xmmarkets.cnpanies, an increase of 6% due to massive bankruptcy. ⑻Hanzsch said: “The continued high levels of bankruptcy are increasingly triggering ripple effects.” ⑼ The number of consumer bankruptcies is also rising, up 6.6% to about 37,700 as families are squeezed by rising cost of living and unemployment, especially in the industry. ⑽The German Federal Statistics Agency released its final first-quarter bankruptcy data earlier this month showed that corporate bankruptcy increased by 13.1%.

The Philippines revised its medium-term growth target to reflect global uncertainty

⑴ On June 26, the Philippines lowered its growth target this year and narrowed its growth target range from 2026 to 2028 to reflect global uncertainty stemming from tensions in the Middle East and changes in U.S. trade policy. ⑵ The growth forecast for 2025 is now 5.5%-6.5%, lower than the government's previous forecast of 6%-8%, while the target for 2026-2028 narrows from the previous 6%-8% to 6%-7%. ⑶ "The revision takes into account the increased global uncertainty, including unexpected escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the implementation of U.S. tariffs," Budget Minister Amena Pangardaman said at a press conference. ⑷ She added that the government is ready to “take timely and targeted measures to mitigate its potential impact on the Philippines economy”. ⑸ The government also lowered the inflation assumption in 2025 from 2%-4% to 2%-3%, but maintained the outlook for 2026-2028 at 2%-4%. ⑹Pangjadaman said the government has also revised its fiscal plan, and it expects the proportion of budget deficits to expand to 5.5% this year, xmmarkets.cnpared with 5.2% in 2026, following previous forecasts of 5.3% and 4.7% respectively. ⑺Gross domestic product increased by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, consistent with the 5.3% growth in the previous quarter. ⑻In view of the need to support growth in the context of global uncertainty, the central bank of the Philippines cut interest rates for the second time on June 19 and opened the door to at least another rate cut this year. ⑼ Central Bank Deputy Governor Zeno Abenoha said the updated economic outlook is "basically consistent" with the central bank's expectations, that inflation will remain controllable, growth will slow but remain resilient. ⑽In the first five months of this year, inflation averaged 1.9%, lower than the central bank's target range of 2%-4%.

Singapore fuel oil inventories rose due to increased net imports

⑴ On June 26, fuel oil inventories in Singapore, a key trading hub, rose this week as net imports increased. ⑵ In the week ending June 25, residue fuel oil stocks were 22.5 million barrels (about 3.54 million tons), up about 5% from the previous week, which is the sixth consecutive week above the typical week average. ⑶Net import volume (total import volume minus total export volume) was 418,000 tons, an increase of 8% over the previous week. ⑷ Most fuel oil imports this week xmmarkets.cne from Brazil and Mexico. ⑸ Adequate supply keeps inventory stable while putting pressure on price benchmarks. ⑹The spot premium for high-sulfur fuel oil has dropped to a one-month low this week, while the premium for ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil has also declined.

The UK will appoint senior officials to resolve the issue of the Office of Statistics

⑴ On June 26, according to people familiar with the matter, the UK plans to split the top position of the National Office of Statistics (ONS) to add a new role focused on overseeing the organization's daily operations as the agency was criticized for its economic data mistakes. ⑵As the largest independent producer of official statistics in the UK, ONS has been criticized by the Bank of England for its errors or methodological issues in labor, inflation, trade and producer price data. ⑶The employment data problems stem from survey response ratesThe decline has caused trouble for the Bank of England, and the central bank needs to understand how much inflationary pressure still exists in the job market when setting interest rates. ⑷ The government-mandated review will recommend the temporary split of ONS's top position in national statisticians and introduce a senior civil servant to improve service operations, the government is expected to accept the recommendation, and the review report is expected to be released soon. ⑸ ONS data issues first appeared in 2023, when the agency said there were problems with its labor survey response rates and the improved survey may not be released until 2026 or even 2027. ⑹Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said insufficient data used to calculate the UK's unemployment rate is a "major problem" facing policy makers. ⑺In May, chief statistician Ian Diamond resigned, and the UK Statistics Authority (in charge of overseeing ONS) said Emma Rulk, deputy chief statistician for health, population and methodology, will take over temporarily until a long-term arrangement is made. ⑻Economist Jonathan Porter of King's College London attributed ONS's problems to years of tightening budgets, lower statistician pay than private sector peers and low willingness to respond to surveys - an issue that has intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. ⑼ONS has reduced some of its business, focused on core economic and demographic data, and has also hired a Bank of England official to lead data improvement efforts.

European Central Bank overnight lending and deposit data

⑴ On June 26, the European Central Bank reported the following daily liquidity supply data. ⑵ The use of overnight loan instruments was 48 million euros, an increase from 21 million euros the previous day. ⑶ The use of overnight deposit instruments was 2699.12 billion euros, down from 2709.927 billion euros the previous day. ⑷ Current account holdings are 159.952 billion euros, a decrease from 162.942 billion euros the previous day.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1706, an increase of 0.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange (Euro vs. U.S. dollar) expanded its gains in the previous trading day to reach our target of 1.1680, taking advantage of the rising bullish momentum after getting rid of the apparent overbought conditions of (RSI).

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.3717, an increase of 0.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) prices continued to rise on the last trading day, supported by dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading along a slash while continuing to be actively supported by its stability above the EMA50, strengthening the opportunity to continue to rise, especially with the emergence of positive signals on (RSI), despite reaching overbought levels, showing improvements in buying momentum and opening the way for more potential gains.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3336.15, an increase of 0.12%. Before the New York market, the price of (gold) rose in the last intraday trading, retesting the key resistance at $3345, and the bearish correction trend dominated the short-term trading, which traded along the bias line, and the negative pressure caused by its trading below the EMA50 continued, and there was also a negative overlap signal on (RSI), which after entering the overbought level but below the expected level, which is likely to form a negative divergence there, exacerbating the negative pressure on the price.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.643, an increase of 1.12%. Before New York, the (silver) price closed higher in the last intraday trading after approaching the resistance of our morning target of $36.85, supported by trading above its EMA50, affected by the short-term positive technology (i.e., rising wedge pattern), reaching these levels represents the goal of reaching the pattern, which makes it lose its positive momentum after reaching an overbought level, especially with the emergence of negative signals on (RSI).

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 65.310, an increase of 0.62%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices continued to trade sideways and narrowly at the last trading day level, dominating in the sharp correction wave surrounded by strong negative momentum, and on the other hand, with the emergence of negative signals on (RSI), its trading follows the main bullish trend line on a short-term basis.

4. Institutional view

Institutional: The strengthening of the euro may prompt the ECB to further cut interest rates

Jane Fowler, a foreign exchange strategist at Rabobank, pointed out in the report that the rise in the euro exchange rate may prompt the ECB to further cut interest rates. Although the ECB has suggested its rate cut cycle is about to end, further sharp rises in the euro may prompt policy makers to tend to implement more rate cuts. The strengthening of the euro also poses a headwind for European xmmarkets.cnpanies, which are facing pressure from "default-related uncertainty." Rabobank currently expects the euro to rise to 1.20 against the U.S. dollar in 12 months, after the euro is expected to reach this level within 18 months.

Citi:Oil prices may be under pressure in half a year

⑴ Citi analysts pointed out in their xmmarkets.cnments that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year. ⑵ They believe that the market's expectations of the decline of geopolitical risks are too optimistic and there may still be fluctuations in the future. ⑶ As OPEC+ prepares to meet in early July to decide how much oil production will resume in August, the fundamentals of the oil market are bearish, especially after the third quarter, which may regain investors' attention. ⑷Citi reiterated its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, which is expected to be $66 per barrel in the third quarter and $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter. ⑸ In recent months, Western Texas Central Oil Futures fell 0.2% to $64.79 per barrel; in recent months, Brent crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $67.52 per barrel.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The EU is facing a trade choice, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 26" is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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