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US-Iran negotiations & the new head of the Federal Reserve compete, where will the market go under Powell's "tariff harmless theory"?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: US-Iran negotiations & the xmmarkets.cnpetition between the new Fed, where will the market go under Powell's "Tariff harmless theory"?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On June 26, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.49. On Wednesday, the US dollar index finally closed down 0.27% at 97.71 points as Trump announced that the US would meet with Iran next week, risk aversion eased, and the market generally expected the Fed to resume its interest rate cut cycle soon. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2920%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7930%. As the market waited for data such as US GDP and PCE, spot gold maintained fluctuations, and once approached US$3,310 during the session, finally closing up 0.30%, closing at US$3,333.46/ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.91%, at US$36.24/ounce. Market news said that if OPEC+ determines that it is necessary, Russia is willing to support a new round of oil production increase at the upcoming meeting on July 6. WTI crude oil closed down 0.12% to $64.88 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.21% to $67.59 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.49. Geopolitical tensions last week supported the dollar. But risk sentiment has shifted as President Trump celebrates a swift settlement between Israel and Iran and expresses optimism about future diplomacy with Tehran. Technically, the US dollar index continues to try to close below the recent support level 98.00–98.20. If the U.S. dollar index stays below the 98.00 level, it will move towards the next support level 96.70–96.90.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Thursday, gold trading around 3333.90. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified in the U.S. Congress that tariffs could only lead to a one-time price increase, but added that the ongoing risks are enough to keep the central bank’s interest rates unchanged. "If it xmmarkets.cnes quickly and is over, then yes, it's likely to be one-off" and won't lead to longer-lasting inflation," Powell said. But, "We feel the risk. As people who should keep prices stable, we need to manage this risk. That's all we do.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Thursday, crude oil trading around 64.56. WTI prices continue to fall after U.S. President Donald Trump pushes a truce between Israel and Iran. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran puts pressure on the black gold. Investors expect a truce between the two countries to reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, although the truce remains vulnerable.
Forex market trading reminder on June 26, 2025
①14:00Germany July Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
②18:00UK June CBI retail sales difference
③19:00Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a keynote speech
④20:30Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to June 21
⑤20:30UK first quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value
⑥20:30UK first quarter real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate final value
⑦20:30UK first quarter The annualized quarterly rate final value of the PCE price index
⑧20:30 US May durable goods order monthly rate
⑨22:00 US May signing sales index monthly rate
22:30 US May EIA natural gas inventory
22:30 US to June 20th
EIA natural gas inventory
The next day
European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech
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