Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
market analysis
Be careful with US dollar shorts! MACD Golden Fork + Heavy Avoidance Heats Heat, how far can the rebound market go?
Wonderful Introduction:
Only by setting off can you reach your ideals and destinations, only by working hard can you achieve brilliant success, and only by sowing can you gain. Only by pursuing can one taste a dignified person.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Be careful with US dollar shorts! MACD golden cross + risk aversion heats up, how far can the rebound market go?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (June 23), the US dollar index continued to rebound. Technically, the price is still under pressure below the 50-day moving average (99.5557), but the short-term momentum has improved since the DIFF crossed the DEA line on June 18. Market sentiment is driven by dual factors: on the one hand, the U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities has triggered demand for safe-haven; on the other hand, Fed officials' cautious statements on interest rate cuts in July have curbed US dollar shorts.
Brands: Geo-conflict and policy expectations game
The situation in the Middle East escalates
After the United States launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, the Iranian parliament passed a bill to close the Strait of Hormuz, but the actual implementation has not yet been launched. Analysts at well-known institutions pointed out that the crude oil market's reaction was relatively restrained - Brent oil prices briefly rose and then fell below the level on Friday, reflecting that the market's concerns about disrupted energy supply have not yet gotten out of control. However, if the shipping in the Strait is blocked, oil prices may quickly break through $100 per barrel, which will exacerbate the xmmarkets.cnplexity of the Fed's anti-inflation.
It is worth noting that the flow of safe-haven funds is differentiating: the traditional safe-haven currency Swiss franc (CHF) strengthens against the trend, while the Japanese yen (JPY) continues to be under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's easing expectations. The US dollar has re-displayed its "crisis currency" attributes, in contrast to the weak performance when "tariff rhetoric" dragged down global growth expectations in most periods of the year.
Difficulty in the Fed's policy path
Federal Governor Waller's remarks about "the possible rate cut by the end of July" are regarded as a minority view by the market. The latest dot chart shows that more policy makers tend to wait and see, and the interest rate futures market priced at the July rate cut to a price of 6-7 basis points last week3 basis points. The wording of Powell's congressional hearing this week will become the key - if inflation stickiness is emphasized, the dollar may further gain support.
Technical aspect: Key position xmmarkets.cnpetition and periodic signal
Moving average system suppression: The current US dollar index is still below the moving averages of each cycle (the 100-day/200-day moving averages are at 102.4920 and 103.9877 respectively), and the medium- and long-term short pattern has not changed. However, if the short-term 50-day moving average (99.5557) is broken, it may trigger short cover.
MACD divergence: Signs of bottom divergence at the daily level appear, and xmmarkets.cnbined with the golden cross between DIFF and DEA, the short-term rebound momentum accumulates. However, the absolute value of the columnar body near -1.0 is still weak, and it is necessary to observe the coordination of the quantity and energy.
Seasonal Law: Historical data shows that the US dollar usually faces seasonal selling pressure from July to August, which is inconsistent with the current geopolitical premium and may intensify fluctuations.
Institutional Views and Market Logic
Hell-hazard demand and position adjustment: A foreign exchange analyst of a European bank pointed out that the rebound of the US dollar was partly due to short positions closed (the cumulative selling pressure during the year was heavy), while the other part reflected its "unique safe-hazard position" - especially in cross-border trade settlement, and liquidity demand rose during the crisis.
Euro-USD Outlook: The institution predicts that if the Fed only cut interest rates once in the remainder of this year, the euro-USD may fall back to 1.12 in a phased manner, but it may still rebound at the end of the year due to the pressure on the US dollar's fundamentals (double deficits, asset outflows).
Future Outlook
In the short term, the trend of the US dollar will depend on two major variables:
Georological risk transmission: If Iran takes substantial retaliation actions (such as blocking the strait), risk aversion may push the US dollar to test the 50-day moving average, but the surge in oil prices may also strengthen the hawkish stance of the Fed and form a two-way driving force.
Political expectations calibration: If Powell downplays the expectation of interest rate cuts at his hearing this week, coupled with the core PCE data in June exceeding expectations, the US dollar index may break through the resistance of 99.50 in a phased manner; on the contrary, if dovish signals are released, the rebound may collapse quickly.
In the medium and long term dimensions, the US dollar is still facing the constraints of slowing growth and valuation pressure, but the current market is obviously more concerned about the short-term pricing factor of "crisis premium". Traders need to be wary of the triple feedback loop of oil prices-monetary policy-risk aversion sentiment, and the rise in volatility may become the norm in the third quarter.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Be careful with US dollar shorts! MACD golden cross + risk aversion heats up, how far can the rebound market go?", which was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Only the strong know how to fight; the weak are not qualified to fail, but are born to be conquered. Step up to learn the next article!
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Market Review】--GBP/JPY Forecast: British Pound Tests 50 Day EMA Against Yen
- 【XM Forex】--USD/CHF Forecast: Holds Strong Near 0.90
- 【XM Forex】--USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Meanders Against Yen
- 【XM Market Review】--ETH/USD Forex Signal: Facing Major Resistance Just Above
- 【XM Market Analysis】--USD/MXN Forecast: Under Pressure