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market analysis

Iran accepts a ceasefire plan! Risk aversion sentiment slowed down gold prices, with U.S. oil falling nearly 6%, returning to below $65 per barrel

Wonderful introduction:

Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Iran accepts a ceasefire plan! Risk aversion sentiment has eased to drag down gold prices, and US oil fell nearly 6%, returning to below $65 per barrel." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Tuesday (June 24, Beijing time), spot gold fell, trading around $3,353/ounce, as Iran did not take any action to block oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran accepted a ceasefire plan, the market's risk aversion sentiment eased; oil prices fell, and U.S. oil fell nearly 6%, returning to below $65/barrel, the lowest to $64.38/barrel, the lowest since June 10.

Focus on the day

Stock market

U.S. stock market closed higher on Monday, with the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut as early as July overshadowing uncertainty about the escalating turmoil in the Middle East.

The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed sharply higher. The consumer discretionary sector led the gains, boosted by Tesla. "This round of gains is a bit surprising, and to some extent, the U.S. strike ends uncertainty about whether it will take action. The market is extremely optimistic because June is the time when we expected a pullback," he said. “People don’t want to sell in this market.” Fed vice chairman Bowman said on Monday that “it’s time to consider adjusting policy rates”, and the job market faces more risks than tariff-related inflation concerns. Chicago Fed President Goulsby said that the impact of tariffs on the economy so far has been moderate than expected.

The financial market is expected to cut interest rates at least twice before the end of the year, at 25 basis points each time. The first rate cut is generally expected to be in September.

Tesla has surged 8.2% after it launched its xmmarkets.cnpany in Austin, TexasThe long-awaited autonomous taxi service is available. The day after the United States joined the war, Israel continued to bomb Iran.

Nevertheless, oil prices plummeted and Iran's retaliation did not include blocking oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had previously warned that it would close this important oil transport portal.

Economic, the initial value of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows that the US economy is expanding slightly faster than analysts expect. Another report shows that existing home sales rose in May despite pressure from rising borrowing costs.

Investors are looking at the final value of GDP and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices in the first quarter later this week, as well as the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who will look for clues about the recent direction of monetary policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.89% to 42,581.78 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.96% to 6025.17 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.94% to 19630.98 points.

The consumer discretionary sector led the gains among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500. Only the energy sector closed lower, affected by the decline in crude oil prices. Sportswear xmmarkets.cnpany Nike and parcel delivery xmmarkets.cnpany FedEx are expected to release results later this week.

Gold market

Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors favored the dollar after the U.S. attacked key Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. The market is closely watching Iran's reaction. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3354.03 per ounce. US gold futures fell 0.5% to $3369.10.

KCMTrade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said the U.S. hit on Iran's nuclear facilities has caused the U.S. dollar to gain safe-haven buying in the foreign exchange market. Although the conflict poses risks, the dollar's rise has caused gold to pull back, causing its performance to be unusually sluggish.

Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel continue to fire missiles at each other. Asian stocks fell on Monday, with oil prices briefly hitting a five-month high, but there was no sign of panic selling in the entire market.

The Federal Reserve said in its latest monetary policy report to Congress on Friday that U.S. inflation is high to some extent and the job market is stable, but it suggests that it may have just begun to feel the impact of President Trump's tariffs and reiterated that the Fed can wait for a clearer situation before taking action.

Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao believes that on the technical side, spot gold may retest the support level of $3,348 per ounce, and may move towards $3,324 after falling below it.

Otherwise, spot silver rose 0.1% to $36.02 per ounce; platinum remained stable at $1,264.96; palladium rose 0.6% to $1,050.07.

Oil market

Oil prices plummeted by more than $5 per barrel on Monday, down more than 7%, beforeIran attacked U.S. military bases in Qatar in retaliation for the U.S. attacks its nuclear facilities over the weekend, but did nothing to block oil and gas transport in the Strait of Hormuz.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 7.18%, the biggest daily drop since August 2022 at $71.48 per barrel. The settlement price of U.S. crude oil futures fell 7.22% to $68.51 a barrel. In after-hours trading, both indexes fell nearly 9%.

John Kilduff, partner at AgainCapital, said, "At present, oil flows are not the main target and may not be affected. I think Iran will conduct military retaliation against US military bases or try to strike more Israeli civilian targets."

After Iran retaliated, claiming that it launched a missile attack on Udid Air Base, the largest military base in the Middle East, Qatar, the oil market began to sell.

In the early Asian session, Brent crude oil prices rose nearly 6% as investors fear Iran's retaliation would disrupt oil exports in the Middle East Gulf region. Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in southern Iran, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil supply is to be transported to refineries around the world.

Iran, the third largest producer of crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Monday that the U.S. attack on its nuclear facility expanded the scope of legal targets for its armed forces.

A source with direct knowledge of the situation said that after the attack, freight or production of Qatar Energy xmmarkets.cnpany was not interrupted; a U.S. military official told Reuters that no other U.S. military bases in the region were found to have been attacked by Iran, except for Qatar.

Kpler analyst Matt Smith said, "This is somewhat of a minority of the two evils. They seem unlikely to try to block the Strait of Hormuz."

Even so, ship tracking data shows that at least two supertankers turned around near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. military strike against Iran, as conflicts in the region force ships to accelerate, suspend or change their voyages.

EnergyAspects said in an article that if Iran or other forces launch a "pre-release signal" attack on a heavily defended U.S. military base without U.S. casualties, the attack could be the first step to ease tensions. “Unless there are signs that Iran will retaliate further, or Israel/US will escalate the situation, we may see some geopolitical risk premiums fall in the next few days.”

In view of the Middle East crisis not yet affecting supply, investors are still weighing the extent of the geopolitical risk premium. HSBC said on Monday that Brent crude is expected to soar above $80 a barrel given the increased likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz, but oil prices will fall again if the threat of interruption does not become a reality.

Foreign Market

USDMonday fell after Fed vice chairman of financial regulation Bowman said the Fed should consider a rate cut as soon as possible and that market expectations that Iran's response to U.S. bombing of some of its nuclear facilities will be limited.

Federal Bowman said the timing of a rate cut may soon be as she is increasingly concerned about risks in the job market and less about the inflationary issues of tariffs.

Helen Given, head of trading at MonexUSA in Washington, said, "Bowman is a well-known hawkish person, so any signs of turning to easing and rate cuts she gives will keep the dollar lower."

Feder funds futures are currently priced at a 58 basis point cut this year, indicating that two 25 basis points expected to be a sure thing, and the possibility of a third rate cut is also rising.

Traders raised their bets on more rate cuts after Fed governor Waller said last Friday that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting, July 29-30. Before Waller made the xmmarkets.cnments, traders had set the rate cut this year at 46 basis points.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby also said on Monday that the surge in tariffs has had a smaller impact on the economy so far than expected.

The dollar was boosted by the Federal Reserve's "hawkish hold on" last Wednesday, when the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Chairman Powell said policymakers expected inflation to rise in the summer due to Trump administration tariffs. Powell will testify before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The dollar was under pressure on Monday as Iran's retaliation against U.S. bombing seems more likely to be limited. Iranian military said on Monday Iran launched a missile strike against the U.S. Udid Air Base in Qatar. Iran called the attack "destructive and powerful", but U.S. officials said there were no casualties in the United States.

Earlier, the dollar was boosted by fears of widening conflict in the Middle East and investors took off riskier positions. The rise in the US dollar is mainly due to traders taking out the US dollar as a financing currency. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn GlobalForex in New York, said the deals include betting on stronger emerging market currencies with higher risk.

The yen also recovered most of the lost land that had earlier been on concerns about rising Japanese oil costs. Bank of America strategists said that if oil prices continue to rise, the US dollar/yen may rise again, noting that almost all of Japan's oil is to be imported, with more than 90% of which xmmarkets.cnes from the Middle East.

The yen fell 0.09% against the US dollar New York late in trading to 146.22 yen, hitting 148.02 yen during the session, the weakest since May 13.

The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.45. It had risen to 99.42 earlier, the highest since May 30. The euro rose 0.39% against the dollar to $1.1567. Pound rose 0.51% against the dollar to 1.3$517, earlier fell to $1.3367, the lowest since May 20.

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Iran accepts a ceasefire plan! Risk aversion sentiment slowed down gold prices, with U.S. oil falling nearly 6%, returning to below $65 per barrel

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