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The price of gold is waiting for the CPI test at 4760. Iran has said that there will be no dialogue before peace in Lebanon. Crude oil may test the 100 mark again.

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: The gold price is waiting for the CPI test at the 4760 mark, Iran has said that there will be no dialogue before peace in Lebanon, and crude oil may test the 100 mark again." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In early trading in the Asian market on Friday (April 10, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,760 per ounce. Gold prices rose on Thursday, supported by the weakening of the US dollar. At the same time, investors assessed the durability of the fragile ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and awaited the US March CPI data released on Friday; US crude oil traded at US$98.43 per ounce. barrels, although after the attack on Lebanon, the Israeli Prime Minister stated that he would launch direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible, Iran stated that it was prepared for various situations, and oil prices may test the $100/barrel mark again. In addition, sources said that Iran has informed the negotiation mediator Pakistan that the Iranian delegation will not participate in peace talks with the United States until a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index rising 0.58%, the S&P 500 Index rising 0.62%, and the Nasdaq Index rising 0.83%, mainly boosted by progress in Middle East peace negotiations, which eased market concerns about the fragile ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

The S&P 500 index regained key technical levels on the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, while the volatility index, known as the "fear gauge," fell to its lowest level since the war began.

In terms of economic data, GDP growth in the fourth quarter was lower than expected, but PCE inflation was in line with expectations. Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that policymakers are increasingly concerned about potential interest rate hikes to deal with the inflationary impact of the war.

Among the sectors, the energy sector fell the most, and the consumer discretionary sector saw the largest gain; in terms of individual stocks, Amazon rose 5.6% after its CEO disclosed that its AI service annualized revenue exceeded US$15 billion, and ConstellationBrands rose 8.5% as quarterly sales narrowed, while Applied Digital fell 8% as losses widened.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, with spot gold closing up 1.6% at $4,789.67 per ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,818.00, mainly supported by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, while investors assessed the durability of the fragile ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and awaited U.S. March CPI data to be released on Friday.

Although Israel bombs more targets in Lebanon, Iran demands that Lebanon be included in the ceasefire, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of being lifted, geopolitical risks still exist, but the market cautiously interprets the prospect of a ceasefire.

RJOFutures strategists said that the weakening of the U.S. dollar has helped gold stabilize, while Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to remain stable in the second quarter and rebound in the second half of the year, noting that if the Federal Reserve avoids raising interest rates or the conflict is resolved, it may refocus on the issue of fiat currency depreciation.

In terms of other precious metals, spot silver rose 2.9% to $76.24, platinum rose 3.8% to $2,106.01, and palladium edged up 0.3% to $1,558.75.

Oil market

International oil prices closed higher in volatile trading on Thursday, but Brent crude oil settled below US$100 per barrel for the second consecutive trading day, with gains narrowing to 1.2% at US$95.92/barrel (as high as US$99.50 during the session). U.S. crude oil futures closed up 3.7% at US$97.87 per barrel (as high as US$102.70 during the session). In early trading, as the market had doubts about the durability of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and concerns about continued obstruction of energy transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rose by more than 5%. Later, the Israeli Prime Minister stated that he would launch direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible, including discussing the disarmament of Hezbollah, and the increase in oil prices subsequently narrowed.

Despite the ceasefire, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below 10% of normal levels on Thursday, with Iran warning ships to stay within its territorial waters to demonstrate control.

In addition, the Saudi National News Agency reported that the attack had caused the country's crude oil production to decrease by approximately 600,000 barrels per day, and the east-west oil pipeline oil volume to decrease by approximately 700,000 barrels per day. After settlement, the gains in both indicators expanded by more than 1 US dollar.

Traders pointed out that even if the strait is reopened, Saudi Arabia's export flexibility will still be damaged in the short term, and Israel's attacks on more targets in Lebanon have put the ceasefire agreement in jeopardy; analysts said that oil tankers may sail in mined waters and intensified military presence, and insurance premiums and shipping costs will remain high.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar rebounded weakly on Thursday, with the market focusing on whether the US-Iraq ceasefire agreement can be maintained. The agreement is in jeopardy because Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon and Iran failed to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iranian negotiators left for Pakistan to participate in the first peace talks, Tehran said that as long as Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, there will be no agreement, while the Israeli Prime Minister seeks toSeeking direct dialogue with Beirut to disarm Hezbollah, US President Trump said that the US military will continue to be deployed in and around Iran until the agreement is fully implemented.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1698 against the U.S. dollar, hitting a one-month high of $1.1721 earlier; the pound rose 0.27% against the U.S. dollar to $1.343; the Japanese yen weakened, with the U.S. dollar rising 0.27% to 159.02 yen; the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.49% and 0.57% respectively.

In terms of economic data, the PCE price index in the United States rose by 0.4% month-on-month in February, in line with expectations, but inflation in March may rise further in the context of the Iran war, and the Federal Reserve is expected to be reluctant to cut interest rates for some time; Japan's consumer confidence deteriorated for the first time in three months in March, xmmarkets.cnplicating the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates. Governor Kazuo Ueda said that real interest rates are obviously negative to maintain a loose environment.

International News

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%, and the expectation of a rate cut during the year has risen to 35.2%

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.4%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 2.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 1.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by December rose to 35.2% (22.3% the day before), the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 59% (74% the day before), and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively was 5.8% (22.3% the day before). 3.7%)

Iran said that the control of the Strait of Hormuz has entered a new stage

The Naval xmmarkets.cnmand of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement in the early morning of April 10, local time, saying that the control of the Strait of Hormuz has entered a “new stage.” The statement did not specify specific control measures in the new phase. Earlier, Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei stated that Iran would not let go of any aggressor and would pursue xmmarkets.cnpensation for war losses and the blood debt of its martyrs. Management and control of the Strait of Hormuz will also enter a new stage.

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The price of gold is waiting for the CPI test at 4760. Iran has said that there will be no dialogue before peace in Lebanon. Crude oil may test the 100 mark again.

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The price of gold is waiting for the CPI test at 4760. Iran has said that there will be no dialogue before peace in Lebanon. Crude oil may test the 100 mark again.

Related News

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for a Reason