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The foundation of the US-Iran ceasefire is unstable, and crude oil rebounds after a sharp fall to focus on deadlock and negotiations
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The foundation of the US-Iran ceasefire is unstable, and the rebound in crude oil after the plunge focuses on deadlock and negotiations." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM: The foundation of the US-Iran ceasefire is unstable, and crude oil rebounded after the plunge to focus on deadlock and negotiations
XM: On Thursday, as Tehran stated that several terms of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement After being violated, the market's optimism about the ceasefire subsided, and international oil prices, which had plummeted the day before, rebounded again. The news that the United States and Iran had reached a ceasefire on Wednesday caused WTI crude oil to plummet by more than 14%, and Brent to fall by nearly 12%, both falling below the $100 mark. Market sentiment remained cautious as details remained unclear after Washington pledged to suspend airstrikes against Iran for two weeks and initiate dialogue.

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Traffic conditions in the strait have also changed little since the ceasefire and the so-called opening of the strait were announced a day ago. The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed on Wednesday, with hundreds of ships seeking exits. Only three ships were observed leaving the area on Wednesday, ship tracking data xmmarkets.cnpiled by Bloomberg showed. It is reported that two fully loaded Chinese oil tankers are anchored near the Strait of Hormuz. They are expected to become the first oil tankers to leave the Persian Gulf just one day after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement came into effect. Shipowners are hoping to find out whether they can safely transit the vital waterway after the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire agreement late Wednesday.
Previously, Washington promised to suspend air strikes against Iran for two weeks and seek dialogue with Iran, which triggered a rebound in cross-asset markets. However, Israeli attacks in Lebanon and the continued effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to undermine the ceasefire agreement. Market participants pointed out that it is very difficult to return to the pre-conflict situation.
Many shipping agencies stated on the 8th that ships had been passing through the Strait after the ceasefire was announced. However, shortly after Israel attacked Lebanon, Iran suspended the passage of oil tankers through the Strait. According to a report by Iran News TV on the 8th, the Strait of Hormuz has been xmmarkets.cnpletely closed, some tankers were forced to return, and a large number of ships are still stranded. Previously, Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the condition that Iran "fully, immediately and safely" open the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran agreed to the opening, it required ships to "pass through coordination with the Iranian armed forces." The two sides' struggle for control over "who manages the strait and who collects tolls" has not been resolved by the ceasefire.
The first round of talks between the United States and Iran will be held in Islamabad on April 11. After the negotiation period ends on April 24, the results of the negotiations will directly affect the direction and fluctuation of oil prices. Analysts predict that during the negotiation period, international oil prices will most likely maintain a high level of volatility. If there is some progress in the negotiations and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, oil prices may fluctuate around US$90 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs’ base case expectation is that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually increase starting this weekend, followed by Persian Gulf exports gradually returning to pre-war levels within a month. Under this scenario, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
If the negotiations remain deadlocked on core differences, or if Israel's continued escalation of attacks on Lebanon causes Iran to withdraw from the ceasefire agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will once again be blocked for a long time. Goldman Sachs warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for another month, Brent crude oil prices will average over $100 per barrel by 2026. Other analysts pointed out that if the shutdown time is extended and production decreases in some areas, Brent crude oil may reach US$120 per barrel in the third quarter and US$115 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The trend of oil prices after the sharp drop depends on the stance of the US and Iranian representatives at the Islamabad negotiation table on April 11, and whether traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually restored. In the short term, oil prices will repeatedly test highs and fluctuate - rebounding to around $100 may encounter profit-taking selling pressure, and falling back to the $90 line will gain support because the geo-risk premium has not xmmarkets.cnpletely dissipated.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The foundation of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is unstable, and the rebound of crude oil after the plunge focuses on deadlock and negotiations". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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