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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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认证最优金牌级别
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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CATEGORIES
News
- 11.5 The latest market trend analysis of gold and crude oil’s shock and decline
- Gold fluctuated upwards in a wide range on 11.10, and continued to buy at 3985 d
- Japan's fiscal pressure and rising global risk appetite weakened the yen, and th
- EURUSD is on the eve of a change
- Rapidly weakening demand, peace talks weaken short-term oil price outlook
market analysis
The safe-haven dollar falls out of favor as ceasefire agreement reshapes currency markets
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The safe-haven dollar falls out of favor, and the ceasefire agreement reshapes the foreign exchange market." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the European session on Wednesday (April 8), the U.S. dollar index made a sharp correction today, weakening for the third consecutive trading day. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hit an intraday low of 98.838, a new low since March 11, down about 2.2%-3% from the March high. The euro rose 0.9% to 1.1698, the pound rose 1% to 1.3428, the U.S. dollar fell nearly 1% to 158.12 against the yen, and the New Zealand dollar rose 1.7% to 0.5825. The core reason for this situation in the US dollar is that the United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement at the last minute, risk appetite quickly rebounded, and safe-haven demand plummeted.
Fundamental Analysis
Geopolitical risks have significantly eased: the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was reached, and Iran agreed to allow ships to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz (about 1/5 of the world's oil transportation channels) during the ceasefire. Brent crude oil plunged 13.4% to US$94.68 per barrel, and risk assets (stock markets, government bonds) rose simultaneously, xmmarkets.cnpletely reversing the stagflation investment logic of the past month.
Falling oil prices ease inflationary pressure: The fall in energy prices directly reduces global inflation expectations. The stagflation environment that has previously seen a sharp decline in the yield curve, weak stock markets, and a strong US dollar is expected to be alleviated in stages.
The central bank’s policy signals are divergent: The New Zealand Bank of New Zealand kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting, but significantly raised the Q2CPI forecast for 2026 from 2.8% to 4.2%, making it clear that rising energy prices have led to "situation happening"If there is a second wave of inflation, it will raise interest rates "decisively and promptly", showing a tough hawkish stance. This is regarded as a template for actions that many central banks may take in the second quarter. Regarding the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson's latest statement said that the current monetary policy is "very appropriate", but the market's probability of an interest rate cut in December has risen To about 50% (interest rate cuts were almost not expected before the ceasefire)
The U.S. dollar’s safe-haven attribute has temporarily weakened: The U.S. dollar became the main winner in March due to its status as a net energy exporter, and now the news of the ceasefire has caused its safe-haven premium to fade rapidly
Mainstream view
Reuters: The U.S. dollar index fell. To one-month lows, major currencies collectively rebounded, with traders re-betting on the Fed's easing policy in December, which led to a return of risk appetite, but they still need to remain vigilant in the next 14 days.
Rabobank: Michael Every and Basvan Ge. ffen believes that the temporary ceasefire has significantly reduced the risk premium, but this is only a short-term "respite" and there is at least two weeks of uncertainty. Scenarios range from "best case (the end of the war)" to "worst case (the ceasefire collapse)", and currently tend to be based on "the war ends in mid-April and Hormuz gradually reopens." Quasi-scenario, but emphasizes that there are still risks in "Trump Always Backs Down" (TACO) trading
Technical Analysis
DXY weakened for the third consecutive trading day, hitting a low of 98.838, a new low since March 11, and is expected to further test the key support of 98.50. However, the strong rise of more than 3% in March has not been xmmarkets.cnpletely reversed, and there is still the possibility of recurrence in the short term. We need to pay attention to whether it can hold the psychological mark of 98.00.
Major currencies have generally rebounded against the US dollar. High-beta xmmarkets.cnmodity currencies (such as the New Zealand dollar) have rebounded by about 40%, and low-beta currencies have rebounded by 0.5%. -1.0%, the 50% retracement level has become an initial reasonable target.
The overall situation is still in the "fog of war", and there is no clear breakthrough signal. We need to pay attention to the subsequent ship flow data to verify the strength of Hormuz's reopening.
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