Maersk will not resume the Hormuz route for the time being. Analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 8

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

US stock index futures show that S&P 500 index futures and Dow Jones (46584.4 609-85.42-0.18%) industrial index futures rose 2.5% and 2.3% respectively, and the Nasdaq (22017.848821.510.10%) index futures, which mainly focused on technology stocks, rose 3.2% before the market opened. Almost all European stock markets rebounded, with only the energy sector bucking the trend and falling. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 3.7%, on track for its biggest gain in a year. European airline stocks led the gains. Previously, airline stocks were hit hard by worries about soaring energy prices.

2. Interpretation of market news

Maersk will not resume the Hormuz route for the time being

Danish Maersk Line said on the 8th that the ceasefire announced by the United States and Iran cannot fully guarantee the safety of passage in the Strait of Hormuz. The xmmarkets.cnpany is cautious about the current situation and will not resume the relevant routes that were suspended last month. Maersk said in a statement that although the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran may create opportunities for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, there are still uncertainties in maritime security and the conditions attached to the ceasefire need to be understood. The xmmarkets.cnpany said it will continue to pay close attention to developments and will provide timely updates on the latest developments as the situation changes in the xmmarkets.cning hours to days. "Any decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz is based on ongoing risk assessment, close monitoring of the security situation, and guidance from relevant authorities and partners." Maersk, one of the world's largest container shipping groups, suspended operations last monthThere are many routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The xmmarkets.cnpany currently transports goods from the Islamic Port of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, the ports of Salalah and Sohar in Oman, and the port of Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates, and then transports them by land to Gulf countries.

Chile’s inflation accelerated and broke the table, and the pressure on the copper mining kingdom rose sharply

⑴ Chile’s consumer price index rose by 1% month-on-month in March, slightly higher than the 0.9% increase predicted by economists surveyed by the agency, according to data from the country’s Bureau of Statistics. ⑵ As the world's largest copper producer, Chile's annual inflation rate climbed from 2.4% in February to 2.8% in March, rising for the second consecutive month. ⑶ Accelerating inflation may limit the room for further easing by the Chilean central bank. The market will pay attention to subsequent data to determine whether price pressures continue. The imported transmission effect brought about by rising copper prices also needs to be vigilant.

Iran’s ceasefire set off a market rollercoaster, with U.S. debt surging and hidden hedging selling pressure

⑴ Iran and the United States reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, just two hours before the United States may launch a large-scale attack. The news sent U.S. bond yields across the board The 2-year yield plummeted by 11.6 basis points to 3.717%, and the 10-year yield plummeted by 10.9 basis points to 4.234%. The yield curve continued to steepen, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year interest rates widened by 4 basis points to 112.8 basis points. ⑵ The swap market opened with violent fluctuations, and the swap spreads of various maturities widened significantly. The 2-year swap spread was reported at -17.25 basis points, and the 10-year swap spread was reported at -43.75 basis points. The steepening of the interest rate curve coincided with the sharp drop in money market interest rates. Bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been significantly reduced, and red envelope SOFR futures have taken the lead, further exacerbating the steepening of the swap spread curve. ⑶ Oil prices plummeted by more than 13%, the largest single-day decline since the epidemic. Brent crude oil was at $94.17, gold fell by more than 16%, and the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.04% to 98.823. Global stock markets rebounded sharply, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 5.39% and the German DAX rising by 4.72%. ⑷ The rally in U.S. Treasuries encountered resistance at midday in London, as the overnight rebound attracted traders to hedge against today's $39 billion 10-year Treasury bond issuance, and there was a selling bias in early trading. However, CTA's massive short covering before the opening of CME quickly pulled back the price, and the continued decline in oil prices provided support for the bond market. If yields remain low, large borrowers whose first-quarter financial reports have been disclosed may take advantage of the situation to issue bonds and increase swap buying.

Trump threatens to impose 50% tariffs on countries that supply weapons to Iran

On April 8, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that "any and all goods" sold to the United States by any country that provides military weapons to Iran will be "immediately imposed a 50% tariff", and said that the measure "takes immediate effect" and "does not include any exclusions or exemptions."

Ust-Luga resumes exports, while the oil market faces changes, drones are still hovering

⑴ Despite the continued drone attacks, the Russian Baltic hub Ust-Luga port has resumed oil exports, with a ship carrying 70The oil tanker Jewel, carrying 10,000 barrels of crude oil, left the port on Tuesday, and the port has a daily loading capacity of 700,000 barrels. ⑵ Previously, the port suspended shipments for nearly two weeks due to heavy damage on March 25. After oil tankers started loading over the weekend, they failed to leave the port immediately due to the threat of attacks. At least one oil tanker was loading on Wednesday, and subsequent operations may face more delays. ⑶The Ukrainian military confirmed an attack on the port on Tuesday, while the Seskalis Terminal in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk also suspended crude oil exports this week due to drone attacks. ⑷ The risk of continuous supply outages has triggered the market to repricing the stability of the energy supply chain, and trading psychology has shifted to a risk aversion mode. Any news of new attacks may amplify price fluctuations. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the recovery pace of actual shipping volume in the two major export channels of the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.

After the ceasefire: Hundreds of oil tankers are still trapped in Hormuz, the shipping industry is calling for operational details, and the two-week window is accused of being "too short"

⑴ After the United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, shippers seeking to restore tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz are eagerly seeking clear guidance on logistics, while refiners are beginning to inquire about new crude oil loading arrangements. ⑵ Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that if the attacks on Iran stop, Iran will stop counterattacks and provide safe passage in coordination with the armed forces and taking into account technical limitations. ⑶ Data from ship tracking agency Kpler showed that as of Tuesday, about 187 fully loaded oil tankers were stuck in the strait, carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products. Li Daizhen, global research director of FertmaxFZCO, said that even under normal conditions it may take more than two weeks to clear the backlog, and the 14-day window is simply not enough to restore the level of confidence required to xmmarkets.cnpletely eliminate the uncertainty premium. ⑷ Jacob Larson, chief safety and security officer of shipping association Bimco, said that the industry is waiting for technical details from the United States and Iran, and leaving the Gulf without prior coordination will face higher risks and is undesirable. ⑸ Two shipbrokers said that shipowners are likely to remain on the sidelines before allowing ships to enter the Gulf, but the number of inquiries for very large tankers to load Middle Eastern crude oil for shipment to Asia has jumped on Wednesday. Many Asian refiners including Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, xmmarkets.cnOOC, and traders such as Glencore and Total Energy are looking for shipping capacity. ⑹Maersk stated that the ceasefire may create passage opportunities for ships, but it has not yet provided sufficient maritime safety guarantees. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is coordinating with Iran to ensure the safe passage of the two Petronas vessels. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs hopes that all parties will work together to promote the early return of normal trade in the strait. ⑺In terms of trading psychology, the market's initial relief at the ceasefire news is quickly being replaced by uncertainty at the operational level. The game between shipowners and charterers focuses on the key issue of "who will pass first?" It is expected that ships related to countries with friendly relations with Iran may become the first batch of transiters, while most blue-chip shipowners may wait for several days to confirm that the ceasefire is effective. ⑻ The future focus will be on the technical regulations to be released by the United States and Iran, as well as the actual safety status of the first batch of transit ships, which will determine the pace of subsequent releases of hundreds of ships and the recovery speed of the energy supply chain.

Trump’s proposalEstablishing a "joint venture" with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz while denying it the ability to retain uranium enrichment

⑴ U.S. President Trump said in an interview with ABC on Wednesday morning that after announcing a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, the United States may seek to establish a "joint venture" with Iran to ensure security in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ When asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge tolls on shipping passing through the strategic waterway, Trump said he was considering operating it as a joint venture, a way to ensure security in the strait and prevent threats from other parties. ⑶ Trump also stated that Iran would not be allowed to retain any uranium enrichment capabilities, although Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not give up its freedom to do so. He emphasized that there will be no enrichment activities. ⑷In terms of transaction psychology, the joint venture proposal marks a possible paradigm shift in U.S.-Iran relations, from military confrontation to a xmmarkets.cnmercial cooperation framework. If implemented, it will significantly reduce the long-term risk premium in the strait. However, fundamental differences on uranium enrichment mean that negotiations still face huge obstacles. ⑸The future focus will be on the specific structure design of the joint venture, as well as the progress of negotiations between the parties on toll arrangements and nuclear activity restrictions, which will determine whether the energy shipping market can form stable mid- and long-term expectations.

Trump proposed to establish a "joint venture" with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, while rejecting its retention of uranium enrichment capabilities

⑴ U.S. President Trump said in an interview with ABC on Wednesday morning that after announcing a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, the United States may seek to establish a "joint venture" with Iran to ensure security in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ When asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge tolls on shipping passing through the strategic waterway, Trump said he was considering operating it as a joint venture, a way to ensure security in the strait and prevent threats from other parties. ⑶ Trump also stated that Iran would not be allowed to retain any uranium enrichment capabilities, although Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not give up its freedom to do so. He emphasized that there will be no enrichment activities. ⑷In terms of transaction psychology, the joint venture proposal marks a possible paradigm shift in U.S.-Iran relations, from military confrontation to a xmmarkets.cnmercial cooperation framework. If implemented, it will significantly reduce the long-term risk premium in the strait. However, fundamental differences on uranium enrichment mean that negotiations still face huge obstacles. ⑸The future focus will be on the specific structure design of the joint venture, as well as the progress of negotiations between the parties on toll arrangements and nuclear activity restrictions, which will determine whether the energy shipping market can form stable mid- and long-term expectations.

British Foreign Secretary: The two-week ceasefire is a key step towards restoring regional stability and global shipping

⑴British Foreign Secretary Cooper said on Wednesday that the two-week ceasefire is a key step towards establishing a certain level of security and stability in the region and allowing international shipping and the global economy to resume normal operations. ⑵ She stressed that the proposed negotiations must reach a xmmarkets.cnplete end to the conflict and ensure that Iran no longer continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz or its neighbors, while calling on all parties in Lebanon to urgently cease hostilities. ⑶Cooper made it clear that Iran must immediately stop all mine-laying, drone attacks, and other obstructions to xmmarkets.cnmercial navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.Lucky behavior. ⑷ She said that the UK will work with the shipping, insurance and energy industries to restore confidence in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. ⑸ In terms of trading psychology, as one of the major shipping and insurance centers, the UK’s official position provides the market with a third-party coordination signal other than the United States and Iran. However, the specific measures and timetable required to restore confidence have not yet been clarified, and shipping-related parties will remain cautious until substantive safety guarantees are in place. ⑹ The future focus will be on what specific measures the UK will launch in the future to promote the normalization of navigation in the Strait, and whether the insurance market’s premium quotes for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will be reduced as the situation eases.

U.S. mortgage loan applications fell for the fourth consecutive week

⑴ Data from the American Mortgage Bankers Association showed that U.S. mortgage loan applications fell by 0.8% month-on-month in the week ending April 3, continuing the cumulative 28.5% plunge in the previous three weeks. The recent pullback continues despite benchmark mortgage rates retreating from last week's seven-month high. ⑵ Long-term Treasury yields fell from recent peaks this week as the market considered the growth dimension of stagflation concerns and reduced bets that the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates this year to curb energy-driven price growth. However, household credit sentiment remains subdued amid high uncertainty. ⑶ Applications for mortgage refinancing, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, fell 3%. Mortgage loans applied to purchase new homes increased slightly by 1%, but were down 7% from the same period last year, the first year-on-year decline since January 2025.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Japanese ambassador to Russia regarding Japan-Ukraine drone cooperation

On April 8, local time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that in view of the signing of a drone cooperation agreement between Japan and Ukraine, the Japanese ambassador to Russia has been summoned to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Previously, Japanese drone manufacturers announced that they had reached a cooperation agreement with Ukrainian drone developers.

U.S. mortgage interest rates fell slightly to 6.51%, the first decline since the Iran War, but home purchase applications are still 7% lower year-on-year

⑴ The American Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday that the most popular U.S. home loan interest rates fell slightly last week for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran War. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contract rate fell 6 basis points to 6.51%, down from a seven-month high the previous week. ⑵ Despite this, refinancing applications still fell by 2.8%, and although home purchase applications increased by about 1% from the previous week, they were 7% lower than the same period last year. ⑶Mortgage rates have climbed 42 basis points since the United States launched a war with Israel on February 28, as the war pushed up the yields on Treasury bonds used to set mortgage rates, while soaring fuel prices also impacted consumers' daily budgets. ⑷Housing affordability has been a key political issue in the Trump administration. Trump earlier this year proposed banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes and requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to drive down borrowing rates. ⑸In terms of trading psychology, the slight drop in mortgage interest rates has not yet been transformed.In order to effectively recover demand, home purchase activity is still significantly weaker than the same period last year, reflecting the wait-and-see attitude of potential home buyers facing the dual pressure of borrowing costs and housing prices. Even if there is a ceasefire signal in the Middle East, the recovery of the real estate market may lag behind the financial market. ⑹ The future focus will be on the specific content of the housing policy that the Trump administration will announce on Wednesday and the further trend of mortgage interest rates after the news of the ceasefire. These two factors will determine the pace of recovery in the spring home buying season.

The EU welcomes the US-Iran ceasefire but refuses to xmmarkets.cnment on the security guarantees in the Hormuz Strait, emphasizing that the strait should remain open as a global public good

⑴ The European xmmarkets.cnmission on Wednesday refused to xmmarkets.cnment on the security measures for passage in the Strait of Hormuz that may be taken at the current stage of the US-Iran ceasefire. ⑵ EU spokesperson Anouar El-Anouny said at the daily press conference that he had learned about the ceasefire and welcomed it. As High Representative Karas said, the mediation window needs to remain open, and follow-up will be based on this basis. ⑶The spokesperson emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is a global public good and should remain open to all parties. ⑷In terms of trading psychology, the EU's cautious stance reflects the international xmmarkets.cnmunity's wait-and-see attitude towards the durability of the ceasefire. The lack of specific action plans means that institutional guarantees for strait passage have not yet been established, making it difficult for the market to form stable mid- and long-term expectations based on this. ⑸The future focus will be on whether the EU will propose a specific traffic guarantee mechanism in the subsequent stage, and how the major shipping countries will coordinate their positions to promote the normalization of traffic in the strait.

The bond market is unlikely to return to pre-war levels, energy shocks have reshaped inflation expectations, and bets on interest rate cuts have faded

(1) The global bond market may rebound, but it is unlikely to fully recover the losses caused by the sell-off caused by the war, because even if peace is achieved, energy prices and inflation will remain high for a longer period of time. ⑵Investors said that previous bets on interest rate cuts by economies such as the United States, Britain and Norway have disappeared and will not return this year. Some even believe that a ceasefire may tilt risks towards raising interest rates, because the possibility of severe oil shortages dragging down global growth has been reduced. ⑶ Energy shocks have made the inflation problem more prominent, reflecting the failure of major economies to return inflation to target levels for many years. Andrew Lilley, chief interest rate strategist at Barrenjoy, pointed out that even if such incidents are resolved, they have changed the market's psychological expectations for the next actions of most central banks. ⑷ On Wednesday, both the Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept key policy rates unchanged, but laid the foundation for the next rate hike. The New Zealand Reserve Bank stated that any significant second-round inflation effect or signs of rising mid-term inflation expectations will require a decisive and timely increase in interest rates to re-anchor inflation expectations. ⑸ In terms of market pricing, federal funds futures, which had expected two interest rate cuts in 2026 at the beginning of the year, now imply that the probability of a single interest rate cut is only 50%. Prashant Newnaha, senior interest rate strategist at TD Securities, said that the central bank will remain highly vigilant about supply shocks not triggering higher inflation expectations, and interest rate cuts should no longer be considered. ⑹ Japan’s path is also more inclined to raise interest rates. Nomura Securities chief strategist Matsuzawa Chu said that the Bank of Japan originallyWe are fully willing to raise interest rates without uncertainty in the Middle East, and this ceasefire provides sufficient reason to raise interest rates in April. ⑺In terms of trading psychology, the market's previous relief rebound on the ceasefire pushed bond yields back down, but only returned to mid-March levels. Investors are digesting a more lasting reality: the energy cost structure has moved upward, the threshold for central bank interest rate cuts has been significantly raised, and the bond market's pre-war pricing benchmark may have been irreversibly changed. ⑻The future focus will be on how central banks assess the effects of the second round of inflation and the evolution of the geopolitical situation after the ceasefire expires. These two factors will determine the final anchoring position of the yield curve.

The U.S.’s war with Iran consumes an average of 500 million U.S. dollars a day, and the cumulative expenditure in five weeks may exceed 30 billion.

⑴ Since the U.S. launched a military attack on Iran at the end of February, the cost of the war is estimated to have reached tens of billions of U.S. dollars. Some think tank experts estimate that the average daily consumption is 500 million U.S. dollars. ⑵ Elaine McCusker, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former senior budget official at the Department of Defense, estimates that the cost within five weeks of the start of military operations will be between $22.3 billion and $31 billion. This figure includes the cost of deploying additional assets to the Middle East starting in December 2025, but does not include a xmmarkets.cnprehensive xmmarkets.cnbat loss assessment that can only be confirmed after the war ends. ⑶ Mark Cancion, a senior consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps officer, estimated that the US military consumed an average of US$500 million per day, and that xmmarkets.cnbat losses and infrastructure losses had reached at least US$1.4 billion only six days into the war. ⑷ Cancian also pointed out that due to the strict restrictions on the disclosure of details by the US military, the actual cost of the war may be higher. ⑸In terms of trading psychology, high and continuously expanding war expenditures are reshaping the market's expectations for the U.S. fiscal deficit and inflationary pressures, which may indirectly affect U.S. dollar asset pricing and the Fed's subsequent policy space, especially in the context that oil prices are still at high levels and inflation has not yet xmmarkets.cne down. ⑹ The future focus will be on the duration of the war and the size of subsequent additional budgets. These two factors will directly determine the final size of the US fiscal burden and its spillover effect on global capital flows.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 20:25 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1709, an increase of 0.98%. Pre-market in New York, (EUR/USD) has surged in recent intraday trade, benefiting from its position above the EMA50, which continues to serve as effective dynamic support for continued price gains. At the same time, the relative strength indicator continues to send positive signals, clearly indicating that bulls are gaining momentum, increasing the chances of a short-term upside.

GBP/USD: As of 20:25 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3479, an increase of 1.43%. Pre-market in New York, (GBPUSD) recorded sharp gains in recent intraday trading, supported by a positive signal from the relative strength indicator, although it hasReaching severely overbought levels. The pair managed to break above the EMA50, getting rid of the early negative pressure that prevented its recovery.

Spot gold: As of 20:25 Beijing time, spot gold has risen, now trading at 4796.54, an increase of 1.93%. Before the New York market opened, gold continued its gains strongly in recent intraday trading, approaching the key resistance level of $4,800, which was regarded as a potential target in previous analysis. This rise is supported by the price continuing to trade above the EMA50, which remains a dynamic support enhancing the stability of the upward movement.

Spot silver: As of 20:25 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 77.276, an increase of 6.00%. Silver surged higher in recent intraday trade before the New York session, notching significant gains and managing to surpass key resistance at $75.85, the preferred target in previous analysis. This strong performance xmmarkets.cnes amid a short-term corrective bull wave, with price action continuing along a supportive trendline, reinforcing the stability of this positive path.

Crude oil market: As of 20:25 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, currently trading at 93.030, a decrease of 17.68%. Crude oil prices fell in recent intraday trade ahead of the New York session, hurt by increasing selling pressure and a negative signal from the relative strength index after reaching overbought levels. This decline caused the price to fall below the 50-period simple moving average, causing it to lose its role as a momentum support and exacerbating the surrounding bearish pressure.

4. Institutional view

Capital Economics: The ceasefire has limited impact on the risk appetite of U.S. stocks

⑴Capital Economics said in a report that if the ceasefire can indeed end the Iran war, then this conflict will have little impact on the risk appetite of investors in the U.S. market. Thomas Mathews, head of Asia Pacific markets, pointed out that although market sentiment has improved after the ceasefire, uncertainty remains, including uncertainty around how the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. ⑵ However, there has been no major shift in investor risk appetite, with key risk premium indicators such as the S&P 500 index excess return and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond term premium rising only slightly. Capital Economics believes this may reflect the outside world's perception that the Trump administration is willing to avoid escalation when facing market pressure. ⑶Mathews warned that deeperGeopolitical fragmentation is likely to be structural, which will support a broader repricing of risks in the medium term.

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