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Small non-agricultural ADP employed 62,000 people, far exceeding the expected value of 40,000
Wonderful introduction:
Spring flowers will bloom! If you've ever experienced winter, you've experienced spring! If you have a dream, then spring will not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have a garden full of flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Small non-agricultural ADP employment of 62,000 people, far exceeding the expected value of 40,000." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
XM: Small non-farm ADP employment was 62,000, far exceeding the expected value of 40,000.
XM: Small non-farm ADP data is an important reference indicator for Friday's non-farm employment report. According to data released yesterday, the number of ADP employed in the United States in March was 62,000, which was much higher than the expected value of 40,000 and slightly lower than the former 63,000. Although the latest value is xmmarkets.cnparable to the previous value, the higher-than-expected result has been able to boost market confidence.
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According to historical data, the historical peak of ADP appeared in August 2021. In the past four years, the overall downward trend has been maintained. Four times in 2025, ADP data fell into negative values, but this has not yet happened in 2026. 2025 is the year when U.S. President Trump will crack down hardest on illegal immigration. The labor market will suffer a significant impact, and it is understandable that the number of employed people will be negative in some months. In 2026, Trump has significantly reduced ICE's authority due to budget issues. Especially for sensitive places such as hotels, consumers, and airports, public arrests will no longer be carried out. This has eased tensions in the labor market to a certain extent, so this year's ADP data will most likely be better than 2025 overall.
The U.S. non-farm employment report for March will be released at 20:30 tomorrow. Among them, the number of new non-agricultural employment is the most concerned. The previous value was negative 92,000, and the expected value was only 55,000. Although the expected value is positive and the previous value is negative, the data looks optimistic. However, according to the longer periodJudging from historical data, the monthly non-agricultural employment of 55,000 people is in the relatively bottom area. If tomorrow's data cannot significantly exceed the expected value of 55,000, it is expected that the U.S. dollar index may still be under pressure.
In fact, in addition to Trump’s immigration policy, AI artificial intelligence, which is currently being focused on, also has an impact on the labor market. AI artificial intelligence can replace some repetitive human labor, so business owners will choose to stop recruiting or reduce recruitment quotas for some grassroots positions. Although this kind of impact is not as violent as ICE, it lasts for a long time and shakes market confidence, so it still needs to be focused on.
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In terms of market conditions, at the daily level, the U.S. dollar index has shown signs of breaking through the rising channel. The rising channel formed in the past two months no longer has a binding effect. Since March 13, the U.S. dollar index has formed a relatively typical shock structure, with an upper limit of 100.51 and a lower limit of 98.85. The K-line has been within the upper and lower limits for nearly a month. In the absence of new strong expectations, the U.S. dollar index is likely to maintain the day's sideways fluctuation pattern.
In the long term, the U.S. dollar index hit a stage high of 114 in September 2022 and has been in a downward trend since then, without forming a reliable bottoming structure. Therefore, the U.S. dollar index may continue to move toward 90, 80 or even 70 below. However, this long-term short trend does not refute the current possibility of a mid-term rebound. Therefore, how the U.S. dollar index develops still requires a detailed analysis of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the current international status of the United States.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not rely on this report as your sole reference. Analysts' views may change at different times and will be updated without notice.
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