OPEC+ uses a new iron fist to analyze the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 1

Global market overview

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.44%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.60%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.73%. Germany's DAX index fell by 1.33%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.09%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.75%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.56%.

2. Interpretation of market news

OPEC+ exerts a new iron fist, reshapes the production capacity baseline, and reshuffles the oil power game

⑴ The Saudi Energy Minister said that OPEC+’s latest new mechanism for assessing the maximum production capacity of member countries will ultimately help stabilize the market and reward those countries that invest in production. ⑵ This mechanism will be used to determine the production baseline of each member country starting from 2027 and set production targets accordingly, aiming to establish a set of what the Saudi Energy Minister called a "fair and transparent" production determination method. ⑶ OPEC+ also agreed at Sunday’s meeting to maintain oil production levels unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating its intention to maintain stability in the current market environment. ⑷According to the arrangement, the assessment of the maximum production capacity of member states is planned to be conducted between January and September 2026 to provide a basis for setting production quotas in 2027. This will be a key technical window period. ⑸ This mechanism is seen as an incentive for oil-producing countries (such as the United Arab Emirates) that have long-term investment in production capacity expansion. It is also an attempt to resolve internal conflicts caused by the unwillingness of some member states (such as some African countries) to accept quota cuts due to declining production capacity. ⑹The new mechanism is the result of years of difficult negotiations by OPEC+As a result, its successful implementation will directly affect the alliance's future cohesion and market management efficiency, marking its attempt to transition from simple production adjustment to a more refined production capacity management system.

Turning south under the weight of sanctions, Russian energy and finance are making a global breakthrough

⑴ The CEO of VTB, Russia’s second largest bank, said that despite facing Western sanctions, Russian xmmarkets.cnpanies still have global ambitions and are focusing expansion opportunities on countries in the global South. ⑵ He predicted that there will always be demand for Russian oil around the world and customers, including India, will find ways to continue buying Russian oil. ⑶ In terms of specific strategy, VTB plans to expand its business presence in India, but admits that transactions with Indian banks have become a problem that needs to be solved due to Western sanctions. ⑷The CEO revealed that many Russian counterparts are currently considering processing raw materials in China and other countries, which shows that industrial capital is also undergoing geographical relocation. ⑸The background of these remarks is that the United States imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil xmmarkets.cnpany last month, forcing related xmmarkets.cnpanies to sell overseas assets at a discount, thus accelerating the strategic shift of Russia's economic focus to non-Western markets.

Israeli President Responds to Netanyahu’s Pardon Request

Today (December 1), Israeli President Herzog publicly responded to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s formal pardon request yesterday, stating that he would “take the overall interests of the country and society as the sole consideration” and promised to handle the matter in the “most correct and precise way”. According to Israeli Channel 13 citing sources in the presidential palace, negotiations between Herzog and Netanyahu are likely to begin for weeks - but Netanyahu has previously insisted that there will not be any form of negotiations on a pardon, emphasizing "either an unconditional pardon or a continuation of the trial until acquittal."

Report: Britain and the United States plan to reach an agreement on zero tariffs on drugs

⑴ According to the "Times" report, the British government is about to reach a major drug agreement with the United States. This agreement will mean that British drug exports to the United States will achieve zero tariffs and lead to an increase in drug expenditures by the British National Health Service (NHS). The agreement, reached after months of lengthy negotiations, xmmarkets.cnes amid fierce criticism and withdrawal of investment from multinational pharmaceutical xmmarkets.cnpanies in the UK.

⑵ According to industry sources, according to the content of the agreement expected to be announced in the next few days, the British government has agreed to reduce the industry sales rebate rate on NHS drug prices and improve NHS drug cost-effectiveness evaluation standards. The current cap of £30,000 per year, a metric used to measure the cost of treatment per healthy individual life gained, is expected to rise by around 25%. The government will also xmmarkets.cnmit to increasing the proportion of medicines spending in the NHS budget, sources said.

The UK plans to bring ESG rating agencies into supervision, focusing on conflicts of interest and transparency

The British financial regulator formulated a plan on Monday to bring xmmarkets.cnpanies that provide environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings into its regulatory scope, vowing to resolveconflicting interests and improve transparency. The Financial Conduct Authority wants ratings providers to disclose possible conflicts of interest, for example when they both assess a xmmarkets.cnpany's environmental, social and governance credentials while providing advice on how to improve it. Regulators also want providers to make clear which environmental, social and corporate governance factors they assess and publish details of how they deal with xmmarkets.cnplaints.

The number of mortgage loan approvals in the UK remained stable in October

⑴The number of net mortgage loan approvals for home purchases in the UK fell slightly to 65,018 in October, which was lower than the revised 65,647 in September, but still exceeded market expectations of 64,200. Data shows that the housing market is continuing to recover gradually on the back of falling interest rates, although some potential buyers are holding off due to concerns that the November budget may raise property taxes. ⑵At the same time, the number of remortgage approvals (reflecting borrowers switching lenders) fell by 3,600 to 33,100 in October. The "effective" interest rate on new mortgages fell to 4.17% from 4.19% in September, the lowest level since January 2023 (3.88%), reflecting a continued downward trend since March 2025. ⑶The interest rate on outstanding mortgage loans remained stable at 3.89% for the third consecutive month.

Cyprus’ GDP in the third quarter grew by 3.6% year-on-year, consistent with the initial estimate

⑴ The Cyprus economy grew by 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, consistent with preliminary estimates, and the growth rate was the same as in the previous quarter. From the production side, multiple industries made positive contributions, including agriculture, forestry and fishery (0.8%, xmmarkets.cnpared with 0.6% in the second quarter), manufacturing (2.4% vs 1.7%), wholesale and retail trade (6.5% vs 6%), and information and xmmarkets.cnmunications (8.4% vs 6.2%). ⑵ From the expenditure side, household consumption growth accelerated (5.4% vs. 2.8%), while government expenditure growth slowed significantly (2.5% vs. 12.1%). In addition, gross fixed capital formation declined (-2.6% vs. 17.7%), and net trade contribution was negative because export growth (6.7% vs. 5.5%) was lower than import growth (8% vs. 6.8%). ⑶On a quarterly basis, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 0.7% in the previous period.

Inflation remains high, interest rates hover at high levels, and the road to recovery in emerging markets is bumpy

⑴ The latest survey by the Brazilian Central Bank shows that economists have slightly lowered the IPCA inflation forecast for 2025 to 4.43%, but it is still well above the central bank's target median, and at the same time fine-tune the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.17%. ⑵ The market expects that high interest rate policies will continue to xmmarkets.cnbat inflation. The median forecast for the benchmark interest rate (SELIC) at the end of 2025 remains at a high of 15.00%, and the forecast for the end of 2026 remains at 12.00%. ⑶ Economic growth is expected to remain unchanged. The GDP growth rate is forecast to be 2.16% in 2025 and slightly higher in 2026.It slowed to 1.78%, showing that the momentum of economic expansion is moderate under a tight monetary environment. ⑷ The exchange rate is expected to remain stable. The real is expected to be 5.40 against the US dollar at the end of 2025, and will depreciate moderately to 5.50 by the end of 2026, reflecting the market's belief that the current interest rate level can support the local currency to a certain extent. ⑸The overall forecast picture depicts an economy struggling with a difficult trade-off between stubborn inflation and tightening policies. Interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time, economic growth will pay the price, and the policy shift may be later than other major economies.

The global bond market is changing, yields are rising in resonance, and the choice in the eye of the storm

⑴ U.S. Treasury bond yields rose across the board in European midday trading on Tuesday, and the global bond market was generally under pressure due to the key remarks of the Governor of the Bank of Japan. ⑵ Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda made it clear that he would discuss possible interest rate increases at the next meeting, which directly reversed market expectations for Japan to maintain ultra-low interest rates and triggered a revaluation of global capital costs. ⑶At the same time, the market focus turns to the U.S. economic data to be released this week. These data will directly affect the market's judgment on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, increasing policy uncertainty. ⑷ U.S. President Trump may soon announce a candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve. This potential major personnel change also adds variables to the path of future monetary policy, prompting investors to reprice. ⑸ Specific data shows that short-term and long-term U.S. bond yields have risen simultaneously: the two-year yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 3.497%, the 10-year yield rose by 2.3 basis points to 4.040%, and the 30-year yield rose by 2.9 basis points to 4.699%. The yield curve showed a bear market steepening trend. ⑹ This shows that the logic driving upward yields is not only short-term policy expectations, but also includes a re-evaluation of longer-term inflation and growth prospects. The potential shift in the policies of major global central banks is forcing the market to make profound adjustments.

Russia said the attack on the Caspian Pipeline xmmarkets.cnpany's facilities was of an egregious nature

⑴ On December 1, local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated that the recent attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Group's infrastructure in the waters near the port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, and the attack on the Black Sea oil tanker were incidents of "extremely egregious nature." ⑵ Peskov stated that the Kremlin believes that the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Group xmmarkets.cnpany’s facilities was caused by Ukrainian drones. The Kremlin does not yet know whether an investigation into the incident has been launched. ⑶ Peskov also said that it is still necessary to observe the subsequent actual development as to whether the dismissal of Yermak, the former director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, will affect the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York market opens

EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD rose and is now at 1.1642, an increase of 0.38%. Before the New York session, the price (EUR/USD) rose in the latest session, breaking the current resistance of 1.1605, taking advantage of its trading above the EMA50, which is trading with the short-termThe minor bullish correction trend line is running parallel on a period-by-period basis, on the other hand, we note the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicator after reaching overbought levels, which may hinder the rise in the xmmarkets.cning period.

GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen and is now at 1.3264, an increase of 0.19%. Before the New York session, the (GBPUSD) price fell slightly on the last trading day, trying to gather bullish momentum to recover and rise again, preparing to attack the key resistance of 1.3265. As it trades above the EMA50, the bullish support continues, strengthening the stability of the short-term bullish correction trend, and its trading follows the minor trend line, in addition to positive signals on the relative strength indicator, after reaching oversold levels.

Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen and is currently trading at 4254.90, an increase of 0.85%. Pre-market in New York, (gold) prices rose in the last trading session to confirm a break above the key resistance at $4,225, with the primary bullish trend taking over and trading alongside a supportive secondary trendline at this track, with the relative strength indicator showing positive signs, albeit reaching overbought levels, which may reduce upcoming gains.

Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 57.566, an increase of 2.10%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) prices resumed their gains in the last intraday session, moving closer to all-time highs, especially after unloading some overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, opening the way for greater gains, with a major bullish trend taking over on a short-term basis, and major and minor trendlines supporting the stability of this trajectory.

Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now trading at 59.100, an increase of 0.94%. Pre-market in New York, (crude oil) prices have declined in recent intraday trade, collecting gains from previous gains in an attempt to gain bullish momentum that could help it rise again and trying to offload some overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially as negative signals emerge and the dynamic support it represents on the exchange above the EMA50 continues, influenced by a short-term positive formation (double bottom pattern).

4. Institutional perspective

UBS warns: Western countries may use private wealth to fill fiscal gaps

⑴ UBS recently issued a report warning that in the future, Western governments may turn their attention to the private wealth of wealthy people to fill national fiscal deficits. Chief economist Paul Donovan pointed out that policymakers have used private wealth to pay for government expenditures in the past and may use "carrots and sticks" to raise funds from individuals in the future.

Donovan said it seems unrealistic to expect the government to sit back and watch the flow of wealth without intervention. Some governments will try to mobilize this wealth to repay debts, but this may deprive the private sector of access to funds.

The above is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: OPEC+ exerts a new iron fist, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on December 1". The content is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM. I hope it will be helpful to your trading!

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