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The New Zealand Federal Reserve’s ultimate gamble, insisting on cutting interest rates amid rising inflation
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The ultimate gamble of the New Zealand Federal Reserve, insisting on cutting interest rates amid undercurrent of inflation." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (November 27), the New Zealand dollar continued to rebound against the US dollar. The exchange rate rebounded by more than 1.5% for two consecutive days and is currently trading at 0.5711, up 0.25%.
The wording of media statements and monetary policy statements is biased towards a tightening stance. The continuous downward adjustment of the New Zealand dollar exchange rate within half a year has conveyed to the market that this interest rate cut may be the last action of this round of easing policy and has been reflected in the price. Affected by this, this expected interest rate cut and the subsequent tightening expectations of New Zealand's OCR have made the exchange rate rise instead of falling.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25% with a vote of 5 in favor and 1 against. One xmmarkets.cnmittee member advocated keeping the interest rate unchanged. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand usually makes policy decisions by unanimous consent of all members, and will only vote when there are differences among members of the Monetary Policy xmmarkets.cnmittee and an agreement cannot be reached.
This has only happened twice before - in May 2023 and May 2025 - and both times were seen as a strong signal that a change in the monetary policy cycle was xmmarkets.cning.
Updated forecasts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand show that further cuts to the official cash rate are unlikely; however, they also note that if the economy grows slower than expected, another rate cut is still possible.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is not concerned about inflation at the upper end of its target range because it believes excess capacity in the economy will have a dampening effect on domestic price increases.
RaboRes, the core research institution of Rabobankearch still maintains its forecast that there will be no further cuts to the official cash rate.
Economic Outlook
In the monetary policy statement released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the OCR interest rate decision, the agency pointed out that the CPI inflation rate in the September quarter was 3%, which was at the upper limit of the target range of 1% to 3%; however, there is still a large amount of idle capacity in the economic system.
These idle production capacities will exert downward pressure on price growth, and the CPI growth rate is expected to drop to about 2% by the middle of next year.
Non-traded inflation (that is, inflation generated within New Zealand) is the xmmarkets.cnponent of overall inflation most affected by the state of domestic production capacity.
In the September quarter, the non-traded inflation rate fell from 3.9% to 3.5%; but for the unusually large rise in government-controlled prices such as local government fees and consumption taxes, the inflation rate would have fallen further.
It appears that the falling momentum in non-traded inflation has given the Reserve Bank of New Zealand enough confidence that inflation momentum is weakening - despite the recent brief rise in inflation to the upper limit of the target range.
Although the monetary policy statement pointed out that there is still a large amount of idle capacity in the economy, it also pointed out that the GDP growth rate in June was -0.9% month-on-month. This data "may exaggerate the degree of economic weakness at that time."
The statement mentioned that the number of job vacancies and total working hours increased in September, indicating that the labor market is improving; at the same time, some xmmarkets.cnpanies reported that market demand has stabilized recently.
The New Zealand Bank of Australia expects economic growth to restart in the September quarter and continue into next year.
In New Zealand, 40% of mortgages will have their interest rates readjusted by the end of March, resulting in a considerable cash flow increase for New Zealand households.
Coupled with an improving labor market, rising consumer confidence and a rebound in net migration, these factors will help drive growth in private consumption.
This forecast is consistent with RaboResearch’s own forecasts, which expect economic growth to accelerate in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
Inspiration for future policy formulation
At the May 2023 meeting, the New Zealand Bank of New Zealand continued the interest rate hike cycle that began in October 2021; and many market economists predict that the May 2025 meeting will mark the end of the current interest rate hike cycle.
Although the New Zealand Bank of New Zealand kept the current interest rate unchanged at the July 2025 meeting, it then restarted the interest rate cutting cycle in August - because the latest economic data showed that the country's economy experienced stagnant growth in the June quarter.
Market interest rates have fluctuated significantly at both meetings, and overall, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision and updated forecasts in the Monetary Policy Statement can be viewed as hawkish.
In addition, the New Zealand Central Bank announced in the "Monetary Policy Statement"The OCR interest rate trend forecast shows that the interest rate level will drop to a minimum of 2.2%, which is consistent with the current OCR interest rate level.
From the perspective of foreign exchange trading, the New Zealand Federal Reserve's big gamble
The New Zealand Federal Reserve's accelerated interest rate cuts in the context of rising inflation and economic recovery may be a successful expectation management that makes the currency value rebound and helps reduce the costs of businesses and individuals. At the same time, it has the advantage of market expectations for the Australian dollar that the New Zealand dollar cannot fall, but it may also become a reckless operation that ignores the risk of inflation.
Looking at the southern hemisphere, recent Australian inflation data is even more telling: inflationary pressure is far from being relieved.
“In the 12 months to October 2025, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.8% year-on-year, further expanding from the 3.6% increase in the 12 months to September.”
In fact, Australia’s inflation is showing signs of accelerating, with the annual inflation rate doubling since June 1.9%. This echoes the rebound in inflation in New Zealand, suggesting that global inflationary pressure has not subsided.
At the same time, the growth rate of New Zealand's broad money continues to rise. Last year, the growth rate of New Zealand's broad money basically remained in the 3%-4% range, hitting a low of 2.9% in August 2024; and the growth rate in September 2025 has soared to 5.5%. The substantial expansion of money supply has paved the way for a rebound in inflation.
Although the recent rebound in inflation is within market expectations, the New Zealand Federal Reserve's decision to further cut interest rates at this time may still be a risky move.
Technical analysis:
The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar xmmarkets.cnpleted the breakthrough of the falling wedge, and the exchange rate xmmarkets.cnpleted the bottom-out, forming two typical bottom forms. 0.5674 is an important support, and 0.5783 is the 0.618 rebound point of this exchange rate decline.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The ultimate gamble of the New Zealand Federal Reserve, insisting on cutting interest rates amidst the undercurrent of inflation". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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