German industrial new orders fell for the fourth consecutive month, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 7

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures rose 0.11%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.01%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.02%. The German DAX index rose 0.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.06%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.29%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.16%.

2. Market news interpretation

German industrial new orders fell for the fourth consecutive month

Data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on the 7th showed that due to weak demand in the automotive industry and other industries, Germany's new industrial orders fell by 0.8% month-on-month in August, the fourth consecutive month. Data shows that in August, new domestic orders in Germany increased by 4.7% month-on-month, and new foreign orders decreased by 4.1% month-on-month, of which new orders from the euro zone and outside the euro zone fell by 2.9% and 5% month-on-month respectively. The German Federal Statistics Office said in a statement that new orders in the automobile industry fell by 6.4% month-on-month that month. In addition, new orders in xmmarkets.cnputer, electronics and optical products manufacturing industries fell by 11.5% month-on-month, and the pharmaceutical industry fell by 13.5%.

French assets temporarily breathed, political uncertainty still dominated the market

⑴French CAC40 index rose 0.1% on Tuesday, basically the same as other major European stock indexes, with the Stokes 600 index and the German DAX index almost no change. ⑵ Resigned Prime Minister Le Cornu is in the final negotiations to break the political deadlock.The market is paying close attention to the performance of French stocks and bonds. ⑶ French bank stocks continued their decline after Monday's sharp decline, but the overall trend was basically in line with that of their European peers. ⑷ Analysts pointed out that despite the political crisis, there is no fundamental disagreement between the parties on reducing the French deficit. The dispute mainly lies in the extent of the reduction. ⑸The performance of French stocks may bottom out when the spread between French government bonds and German government bonds stabilizes, and the banking industry is expected to continue to be under pressure due to its holdings of French debt. ⑹ Since the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024, French asset risk premiums have continued to be high and may rise further. ⑺If the sovereign credit rating drops to the A+ level, it may cause French government bonds to be excluded from high-rating indexes and trigger forced selling. ⑻ Some analysts believe that French government bonds currently have "no investment value" and uncertainty may lead to further widening of the spread between French and German bonds. ⑼ The spread between French and German 10-year government bonds widened to 87.96 basis points on Monday, the highest since early January, and remained at 85.44 basis points on Tuesday. ⑽ Another view is that the adjustment in France and the public bond market has mostly been xmmarkets.cnpleted. Although the outlook is poor, France is "too big to fail."

Report: EU plans to impose sanctions on false flags used by Russia’s “shadow fleet”

The EU has reportedly proposed restrictions on three xmmarkets.cnpanies that provide false flags to sanctioned oil tankers. The documents show that these entities provided false Aruba, Curacao and Sint Maarten flags to at least eight sanctioned vessels. None of the three regions appear on the so-called official flag register of Paris, meaning they don't actually provide the service. The Netherlands sent a notice to the International Maritime Organization in May, warning of xmmarkets.cnpanies offering "false certificates" in the name of Sint Maarten. The proposed measures are part of the latest round of EU sanctions currently being negotiated by member states.

Russia said that the Ukrainian drone attack on the Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant did not cause substantial damage

On the 7th local time, Rosatom reported on the social platform that in the early morning of that day, a Ukrainian drone was suppressed in the area where the Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant was located. The drone exploded after colliding with a cooling tower operating at a nuclear power plant. The cooling tower left black traces from the explosion. No substantial damage or casualties were caused. Radiation levels at the nuclear power plant and surrounding areas have not changed and are in line with natural background values. Currently, Uzbekistan has no response to this.

Steel tariff storm! Britain's 3 billion pounds of exports hang on a thread

⑴ The EU's increase in imported steel tariffs has become the main risk facing the British steel industry. Brussels plans to impose a 50% import tariff on key metals that exceed quotas. ⑵ This poses a major threat to British steel manufacturers. The EU is the most important market for British steel, accounting for about 75% of its total exports. ⑶ Britain’s annual steel exports to the EU are worth about 3 billion pounds, and tariff measures may cut off this largest and most strategic market channel. ⑷The industry is already facing the dual pressures of global xmmarkets.cnpetition and rising energy costs, and the new tariff measures will further worsen its situation.

Japanese xmmarkets.cnpanies are in a profit dilemma! Why is the 4-5 percentage point gap so difficult?To surpass

⑴ Although Japan's improving corporate governance has helped increase corporate profit margins since 2000, the 4-5 percentage point gap with U.S. xmmarkets.cnpanies is expected to persist. ⑵ Driven by the tightening of listing standards by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the adjusted profit margin has risen to about 6%. ⑶ However, performance-related xmmarkets.cnpensation, boards with a majority of independent directors, and a higher proportion of female directors are still not xmmarkets.cnmon in Japanese xmmarkets.cnpanies. ⑷ Analysis estimates that even if optimal governance is implemented, profit margins will only increase by 1.5-2 percentage points, and the improvement in return on equity will be even smaller. ⑸ This shows that the profitability gap between Japan and the United States will exist for a long time, and the return on equity of Japanese xmmarkets.cnpanies will still be far lower than that of their American counterparts.

Private credit giants turn to emerging market nuggets

⑴Private credit funds are shifting from riskier Western markets to emerging markets, driven by the pursuit of yields and saturation of Western markets. ⑵ This shift could lead to exponential growth, providing tens of billions of dollars in funding at a time when bilateral loans and foreign aid are shrinking. ⑶ The scale of global private credit assets under management has surged from US$200 million at the beginning of the 21st century to more than US$1.2 trillion. ⑷Currently, emerging markets only receive less than 10% of private credit funds, but saturated markets in the United States and Europe and rising risks have driven this shift. ⑸Emerging market private credit yields are 150 to 300 basis points higher than developed markets, and the risks are generally lower than indicated by the ratings. ⑹ Emerging market xmmarkets.cnpanies are more accustomed to volatility and political instability, making them more resilient than developed market xmmarkets.cnpanies facing new environments. ⑺Most emerging market private credit adopts asset-backed structures, covering a wide range of areas from infrastructure to sovereign budgets. ⑻ Cases such as the Angola Oil Refinery show that private credit fills the financing gap that traditional banks cannot meet through customized repayment terms. ⑼Investors are concerned that the opacity of private credit may bring risks, especially when it is unclear how to handle a major restructuring.

The oil market is undercurrent! Polarization under the OPEC+ production cut game

⑴ On Tuesday, the spot premium of Dubai, the Middle East crude oil benchmark, fell, while the premium of Murban crude oil rose for the second consecutive day after OPEC+ agreed to implement a lower-than-expected production increase plan in November. ⑵OPEC+ decided at its meeting on Sunday to increase its collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November. ⑶ This move contrasts with market expectations for a more aggressive resumption of supply, indicating that the organization remains cautious about increasing its global market share against the backdrop of forecast oversupply in the fourth quarter and next year. ⑷However, the growing supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries continues to strengthen market expectations for oversupply. ⑸ Cash Dubai's premium to swaps fell 28 cents to $0.73 a barrel. ⑹ Mercuria will deliver a batch of UpperZakum crude oil cargo to Mitsui & Co. for shipment in December through the transaction.

The Philippine central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged

⑴ A Reuters survey showed that 14 of 23 economists expected the Philippine central bank to maintain interest rates at 10The key interest rate will be kept unchanged at 5.00% on March 9. ⑵ Most economists predict that the central bank will suspend its easing cycle as inflation has risen slightly recently and the economy remains solid. ⑶The inflation rate rose to 1.7% in September, the highest since March, but has been below the central bank’s target range of 2%-4% for six consecutive months. ⑷The economy grew by 5.5% year-on-year from April to June, and consumption growth was the fastest since the first quarter of 2023. ⑸Since August 2024, the Philippine central bank has cut interest rates by a cumulative 150 basis points. ⑹ Sixteen economists expect the key policy rate to drop to 4.75% by the end of 2025, two predict it will drop to 4.50%, and two expect it to remain unchanged at 5.00%. ⑺The governor of the central bank hinted in August that he might cut interest rates again before the end of the year if economic demand weakens in real terms. ⑻The survey predicts that economic growth will average 5.5% this year and 5.7% next year, and the inflation rate will average 1.8% this year and 2.8% next year.

Macron’s core allies call on him to resign to end France’s political crisis

According to the British Financial Times, one of Macron’s most core allies is calling on the French head of state to resign and hold an early presidential election to end the country’s current political crisis. The French government has collapsed for the fourth time since Macron called early parliamentary elections last year. On the day after the government collapsed, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe publicly urged the president to bring forward the presidential election originally scheduled for 2027. Philippe said: "France needs to get out of this political crisis that harms national interests in an orderly and dignified way. It is too long to experience such chaos for another 18 months." He further pointed out that if new parliamentary elections are held, there is still a "great risk" that a majority party will not be produced, which will further prolong the political crisis in France. Philippe called on Macron to first appoint a prime minister who can handle daily government affairs, and at the same time announce in advance that once next year's budget is passed, an early presidential election will be held.

Japan officially starts the reactor dismantling operation of Unit 1 of Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant

Central Japan Electric Power xmmarkets.cnpany said on October 7, local time, that it has officially started the reactor dismantling project of Unit 1 of Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant in Omaezaki City, Shizuoka Prefecture, which is undergoing scrapping operations. This is the second xmmarkets.cnmercial nuclear power unit in Japan to enter the actual dismantling stage of the reactor, following Unit 2 of the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant in March this year. This operation is the third of the four stages of nuclear power plant decommissioning. Chubu Electric Power plans to xmmarkets.cnplete the dismantling of the reactor body by fiscal year 2035, and xmmarkets.cnplete all scrapping work, including the dismantling of the factory building, by fiscal year 2042.

Hamas senior official: Will not give up national principles and legitimate self-defense rights

Mahmoud Mardawi, a senior official of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), said on the 7th local time that the organization’s struggle is always xmmarkets.cnmitted to ending aggression and reaching an agreement to bring lasting peace to the Palestinian people after long-term suffering. Mardawi emphasized that the organization acted with a sense of responsibility andPut the interests of the Palestinian people above everything else, without giving up national principles and legal right to self-defense. Mardavi said Hamas stressed his desire to end the war and that if the United States takes the matter seriously, negotiations must be conducted and the Palestinian demands must be considered. These are not demands between the various factions of Hamas, but represent the core position of the Palestinian people.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1660, a drop of 0.44%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (Euro-USD) fell in recent intraday trading and closed below 1.1690 again because its trading price was below EMA50 and continued to bear down pressure, which repeatedly hindered the price rebound. Dominantly under the short-term bearish correction trend, its price fluctuates along the trend line, and negative signals appear in relative strength indicators, which have previously reached an overbought level.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3398, a drop of 0.65%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (GBPUSD) fell at its last day level, mainly due to the stability of the current resistance level of 1.3485, which gave up some of the gains previously increased, trying to gain bullish momentum to help break through this resistance level, while trying to release some of the overbought state on the relative strength indicators, especially in the case of negative overlapping signals. Furthermore, the price is affected by the short-term breakout of the small bearish trend line, while the continuation of this dynamic support enhances its chances of recovery and re-raise as it is still trading above the EMA50.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3966.37, an increase of 0.12%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (gold) price fluctuates at the level of the last trading day, trying to unload its overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially as its trading appears above the EMA50, dominated by the short-term major bullish trend and trades along the trend line, this performance represents a healthy signal to strengthen the stability of the positive trend.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 48.446, a drop of 0.09%. Before the New York market, the (silver) price stabilized in the last intraday trading after it fell in today's early trading to collect earnings and unload its overbought conditions based on the relative strength indicator as a positive signal of price momentum recovery and rising again, the main bullish trend dominates in the short term and trades along the trendline, using the dynamic support represented by its trading above the EMA50, strengthening its chances of recovery.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 61.630, a decrease of 0.10%. Crude oil prices have been volatile in recent intraday trading before the New York session, with bullish correction waves dominating the market to recoup some of the previous losses and capitalize on limited recovery efforts in the short term. However, as it trades below the EMA50, in addition to negative signals on the relative strength indicator after forming a negative divergence, negative pressure remains dominant after reaching severe overbought levels xmmarkets.cnpared to the price action, which increases the possibility of more downside in the xmmarkets.cning sessions.

4. Institutional view

World Bank: The U.S.’s imposition of additional tariffs on India will drag down South Asia’s economic growth next year

The World Bank said on Tuesday that the U.S.’s imposition of higher tariffs on Indian exports will drag down South Asia’s economic growth in 2026, although this year’s growth will still be supported by government spending and remain solid. The World Bank expects economic growth in South Asia to slow sharply to 5.8% in 2026, down from its forecast of 6.6% in 2025. The region includes India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives. The report stated: "Growth forecasts for 2026 are revised downwards as some supporting factors are fading, while India still faces higher-than-expected tariff pressure on its exports from the United States." The World Bank raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026 from 6.3% to 6.5%, but raised the growth forecast for the next fiscal year from 6.3% to 6.5%. 6.5% reduced to 6.3%

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: German industrial new orders fell for the fourth consecutive month, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on October 7". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some contents in the article still need to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: