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Powell's speech is imminent, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 22

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Powell's speech is imminent, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 22nd". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.33%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.28%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.22%. The German DAX index rose 0.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.05%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.25%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.30%.

2. Market news interpretation

Powell's speech is imminent, and the market turns to hawkish bets

⑴ Recent market trends show that traders tend to bet on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech will be hawkish. ⑵The probability of a money market cut in September has dropped from 90% to 65%, and this shift in expectations has pushed up the dollar exchange rate and caused U.S. stocks to fall. ⑶ At present, the US dollar has covered 50% of the decline due to non-farm employment data. ⑷ The hawkish expectations of Powell's speech may ease the initial reaction of the US dollar and increase the risk of a rapid reversal after a "knee jump reaction". ⑸ Analysts expect Powell to take an uncertain stance, as whether or not to cut interest rates in September will ultimately depend on non-farm employment and CPI data released next month.

The new tax system has caused concerns, India's 10-year treasury bond yield hit a three-year high

⑴ Indian government bonds suffered a sharp sell-off this week, and the benchmark 10-year treasury bond yield hit its largest single-week increase since May 2022. ⑵ On Friday, the yield closed at 6.5510%, the highest closing level since March 28, and the cumulative weekJumped 15 basis points. ⑶ Soaring yields are mainly due to market concerns about the government’s newly proposed tax reform, which may lead to increased fiscal burdens and increased debt supply. ⑷ The reform of the goods and services tax (GST) proposed by Indian Prime Minister Modi simplifies the tax rate to 5% and 18%, and abolishes the previous 12% and 28% tax rates. ⑸Analysts said that despite the rise in yields, government bond auctions are still going smoothly, which makes the market uncertain where the yield will stabilize. ⑹ Traders buy after auction and then short, which may continue until the outlook for debt supply becomes clear. ⑺In addition, the Indian bond market is also closely monitoring the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.

FBI raids Trump's former national security adviser's residence involves confidential documents investigation

According to the New York Post, FBI agents raided the home of former Trump's national security adviser John Bolton near Washington, D.C. on Friday morning. Government officials said the investigation was ordered by FBI Director Kash Patel. According to senior U.S. officials, the investigation allegedly involved confidential documents, which were first launched several years ago, but was later stopped by the Biden administration for "political reasons." Bolton has been accused of including confidential information in his 2020 book The Room WhereitHappened. Trump tried to prevent the book from being published at the time, citing that it disclosed state secrets and said that Bolton violated the confidentiality agreement signed during his tenure, but ultimately failed. The Justice Department, during Trump's first term, launched an investigation into the book in September 2020.

Data reveals a deep recession, can the German economy reverse?

⑴ German Statistics Office downgraded the shrinkage of GDP in the second quarter from a preliminary estimate of 0.1% to 0.3%, indicating that the degree of economic recession exceeded expectations. ⑵ Although weak data such as industrial output and construction in June have suggested a possible downward revision, the revised shrinkage is still greater than analysts expected. ⑶ Nevertheless, Salomon Fiedler of Berenberg Bank said that as quarterly volatility weakens, the German economy is expected to resume growth of 0.1% in the third quarter. ⑷In addition, the European and American trade agreements and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) both point to the German economy that will continue to recover moderately. ⑸ The increased spending of the German government after easing debt restrictions may also drive GDP growth to accelerate in 2026. ⑹Economists believe that the dark period of the German economy may be about to pass and a better situation is expected to xmmarkets.cne.

Expectations for interest rate cuts cool down, euro zone bond yields fell slightly

⑴ On Friday, euro zone bond yields fell slightly, and traders were waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall annual meeting to obtain clues about the path of US monetary policy. ⑵ The euro zone benchmark 10-year German Treasury yield fell 1.2 basis points to 2.74%. ⑶ Ten-year Italian government bond yieldsThe rate fell by 2.4 basis points to 3.59%, and the Italian interest rate spread widened by 1 basis point to 85 basis points. ⑷ The yield on the two-year German Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to the ECB interest rate expectations, is stable at 1.97%. ⑸ The market generally believes that Powell's speech will be the key to assessing whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September. ⑹Commerzbank analysts expect Powell may open the door to a 25 basis point rate cut in September. ⑺However, the money market's current bet on a 25 basis point cut in September has dropped to 65% from 85% earlier this week. ⑻The size and importance of the US economy have enabled changes in the Fed's policy expectations to frequently affect other bond markets.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1614, an increase of 0.07%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the closing low (Euro-USD) in the last intraday trading was affected by the dominance of short-term small bearish waves, and its trend continued to be with the support bias line of the track, confirming the weakness of the positive momentum.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3421, an increase of 0.05%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (GBPUSD) price continued to decline in the last session, with a slight bearish tendency in the short term, and negative pressure continued to exist, as it traded below EMA50, breaking the support level at 1.3420, which was our target in previous reports, with negative signals xmmarkets.cning out despite reaching oversold levels.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3327.53, a drop of 0.33%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell in the last session, and the negative pressure it brought about by stabilizing below the EMA50 continued, slowing the recovery attempt in the previous period, and its trading was traded along with the support bias line of this trend, as small bearish waves dominated in the short term.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 37.834, a drop of 0.74%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose in the final intraday trading, affected by a short-term breakthrough of a small bearish correction bias line, gaining bullish momentum, helping it get rid of the negative pressure of the EMA50, and (RSI) positive signals appeared, opening the way for more profits in the near future after unloading some overbought conditions.

Crude Oil Market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose and is now at 63.590, up 0.13%. Before the New York market, the (crude oil) price fell in the last session, collecting the bullish momentum needed to resume the rise in the correction trend, and using its dynamic support above the EMA50 to stabilize under the dominant bullish correction wave of the intraday level.

4. Institutional View

Bank of the United States: If the dollar weakens and the UK economic growth improves, the pound will strengthen

Bank of the United States said in its report that if the dollar weakens and the UK economic growth improves, the pound may strengthen. Bank of America expects that the Fed's expectation of a return to interest rate cut will still push the dollar to weaken even if inflation rises. Regarding UK economic growth, Sharma pointed out that the third quarter data is crucial to prove that the slowdown in the second quarter was only caused by a temporary shock. He said: "We still believe that the UK's trade agreement with the United States and the EU is conducive to UK economic growth. "Bank of America expects that the pound GBP/USD will rise to 1.45 in the fourth quarter.

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Powell's speech is imminent, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 22

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Expectations for interest rate cuts cool down, euro zone bond yields fell slightly

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

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Bank of the United States: If the dollar weakens and the UK economic growth improves, the pound will strengthen

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Powell's speech is imminent, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 22

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

2. Market news interpretation

Powell's speech is imminent, and the market turns to hawkish bets

The new tax system has caused concerns, India's 10-year treasury bond yield hit a three-year high

FBI raids Trump's former national security adviser's residence involves confidential documents investigation

Data reveals a deep recession, can the German economy reverse?

Expectations for interest rate cuts cool down, euro zone bond yields fell slightly

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

4. Institutional View

Bank of the United States: If the dollar weakens and the UK economic growth improves, the pound will strengthen

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason