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Large energy order of US$750 billion! How the U.S.-European Trade Agreement Reshapes the Euro Landscape

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: US$750 billion energy order! How to reshape the euro pattern in the US-European trade agreement." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday (August 21), the euro fell back against the US dollar, and the exchange rate fluctuated narrowly around the 1.1650 line. The PMI data released by Europe exceeded expectations to boost euro buying, but the market response was relatively mild after the details of the US-EU trade agreement were disclosed, and the intraday volatility narrowed to around 20 points.

Fundamentals: The implementation of the trade agreement has brought about structural impact

The details of the joint statement reached between the United States and Europe on the framework trade agreement have been officially announced. The agreement covers multiple areas such as tariff adjustments, strategic procurement and investment xmmarkets.cnmitments. Under the terms of the agreement, the EU will cancel all US industrial products tariffs and provide preferential market access to US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy products, processed foods, soybean oil and pork. In response, nearly all EU goods entering the United States will apply a benchmark tariff of 15%, a rate designed as a maximum limit, with only the limited circumstances where existing tax rates are higher.

The automotive industry has become one of the focus of the agreement, and the tariffs on automobiles and parts will be reduced from the current 27.5% to 15%, but the time of entry into force depends on the progress of the EU legislative proposal. The two sides will also recognize each other's automotive standards, which will significantly reduce the cost of transatlantic trade. After the pharmaceutical and semiconductor industry xmmarkets.cnpletes the Article 232 survey in the United States and sets a new global tariff rate, the maximum tax rate of 15% will be applied to EU products. Steel and aluminum maintain a 50% tariff, and copper materials will also apply the same tax rate from August 1, but exports within the quota will enjoy a low or zero tax rate under the most-favored-nation treatment.

Strategic procurement xmmarkets.cnmitments in the energy and technology sectors form another important pillar of the agreement. The EU promises to purchase US$750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas by 2028,oil and nuclear energy products and plans to purchase at least $40 billion of U.S. AI chips for xmmarkets.cnputing centers. European xmmarkets.cnpanies are expected to invest $600 billion in the U.S. strategic sector by 2028. These xmmarkets.cnmitments reflect the in-depth integration intentions of both parties in terms of supply chain security and technical cooperation.

The initial value of the HCOB xmmarkets.cnprehensive PMI in the euro zone in August exceeded market expectations, and both manufacturing and service industry data showed signs of improvement, supporting the euro's performance. The narrowing of the interest rate spread of US and Germany further provides support for the euro. The focus of the market has turned to the upcoming U.S. weekly unemployment claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and S&P Global PMI data, which could have a short-term impact on exchange rates.

Technical:

From the 60-minute K-line chart, the euro and the US dollar show a clear range oscillation pattern. The Bollinger band shows that the upper rail is at 1.1668, the middle rail is at 1.1651, and the lower rail is at 1.1634. The exchange rate is currently running near the middle rail. There is a clear sign of the Bollinger band closing, indicating that a directional breakthrough may occur in the short term. From the perspective of price pattern, the exchange rate continued to fall after forming a phased high at 1.1714, and accelerated downward after experiencing 1.1692 highs, reaching the lowest point of 1.1622 support level. Later, it stepped back to the 1.1624 level, forming a short-term double bottom pattern, providing technical support for bulls.

The MACD indicator shows subtle changes, the DIFF line hovers around the zero axis, the value is -0.0000, the DEA line is -0.0001, and the MACD bar chart shows a weak positive value of 0.0001. This entangled state near the zero axis reflects the basic balance of long and short forces in the market and the short-term direction is unclear. It is worth noting that the MACD bar chart turns from negative to positive, indicating that the downward momentum has weakened, but the upward momentum has not been fully released. Judging from the change trend of the bar chart, the green column gradually shortened and turned into a red column, but the height of the red column is limited, indicating that the rebound strength is weak.

RSI indicators provide important overbought and oversold signals. The 14th issue RSI was 50.8757, which happened to be slightly above the 50 neutral level, neither overbought nor oversold, reflecting the equilibrium state of the market. Judging from the RSI's operating trajectory, the indicator rebounded from 38 areas to the current level, reaching a maximum of around 59 during the period, and the overall situation showed an upward trend. The current RSI has exceeded 50 key level upward. If it can stand firm in this position, it will provide further upward action for the exchange rate.

Prevention of Market Sentiment

The current market sentiment is showing a cautious optimistic trend. After the details of the US-EU trade agreement were announced, the market reaction was relatively rational, and there was no excessive pursuit of the rise or panic selling. The trading volume remains at a normal level, indicating that traders have sufficient expectations for the content of the agreement. Judging from the market structure, the buying and selling power near the 1.1650 mark is relatively balanced, with both profit-taking and low-price suppression.

The equity market performed smoothly, and risk preference remained neutral. The market's differences over the Fed's policy path still exist, and some traders believe that economic numbersAccording to improvements, the timetable for interest rate cuts may be delayed, while another part believes that the easing of inflationary pressure creates room for the normalization of monetary policy. This divergence has led to repeated tug-of-warming exchange rates near key technical positions.

Institutional holding data shows that large funds reduced their long positions above 1.1650, but did not turn to short positions on a large scale. The market is paying close attention to the upcoming U.S. economic data, and the expected data may break the current equilibrium pattern.

Future Outlook

Short-term Outlook (1-5 trading days): The exchange rate is expected to maintain a range of 1.1620-1.1680. Technical indicators show that long and short forces are balanced, and there is a lack of clear direction guidance. If the U.S. economic data is weak, the exchange rate may test the 1.1680 resistance level; conversely, if the data is strong, the 1.1620 support level may be backtested. The key support levels are 1.1622 and 1.1600 integer marks, and the resistance levels are 1.1668 (Boletley upper rail) and 1.1692 (earlier highs).

In the short term, we need to pay close attention to the number of applicants for weekly unemployment benefits in the United States and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. If the unemployment data deteriorates or the manufacturing index is lower than expected, it will support the euro's rebound; if the data is improving, the US dollar may gain support, suppressing the euro's performance. S&P Global PMI data will provide the latest evidence of US economic momentum and are of guidance on the direction of exchange rates.

Medium- and long-term outlook (1-3 months): The implementation of the US-EU trade agreement will have a structural impact on the exchange rate. The EU's $750 billion energy procurement xmmarkets.cnmitment and $600 billion investment plan will increase demand for the dollar, which may put long-term pressure on the euro. However, the trade facilitation effect brought about by the tariff reduction may enhance the euro zone's export xmmarkets.cnpetitiveness, partially offsetting the impact of increased demand for the US dollar.

Monetary policy differentiation is still the core factor that dominates exchange rate trends. The ECB maintains a relatively hawkish stance, while expectations of a Fed rate cut are gradually heating up. If this policy differentiation trend continues, the euro may gain relative support. But it should be wary that if the euro zone economic data continues to be weak, the ECB may be forced to adjust its policy stance, and the euro will face downward pressure.

From the technical perspective, the exchange rate needs to break through the key resistance level of 1.1714 to confirm the medium-term upward trend. If this level is not exceeded, a wide range of oscillation pattern of 1.1500-1.1750 may be maintained. The long-term trend line support is around 1.1500, and the gains and losses of this level will determine the direction of the euro's mid-term trend.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: US$750 billion in energy order! How the US-European Trade Agreement reshapes the euro pattern" and is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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Large energy order of US$750 billion! How the U.S.-European Trade Agreement Reshapes the Euro Landscape

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