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market analysis

Core PCE data in the United States hit in May, with mainstream expectations slightly increasing to 2.6%

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: The core PCE data in the United States is xmmarkets.cning in May, and mainstream expectations have slightly increased to 2.6%. Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM xmmarkets.cnment: The core PCE data in the United States in May is xmmarkets.cning, and mainstream expectations have slightly increased to 2.6%.

Today at 20:30, the US Department of xmmarkets.cnmerce will announce the annual rate of the core PCE price index in May, with the previous value of 2.5%, the expected value is 2.6%, and the expected increase is slightly by 0.1 percentage point. PCE data is the main basis for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy. If the data has been higher than the moderate inflation standard of 2%, the time point for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts will continue to be postponed.

The US core CPI annual rate data resonates with the core PCE annual rate data. According to the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics, the core CPI annual rate in May was 2.8%, the same as the previous value and 0.1 percentage point below the expected value. Based on this judgment, today's PCE data may also be the same as the previous value, keeping it unchanged by 2.5%.

The simple and reliable way to judge the direction of U.S. inflation is to observe international oil prices. When international oil prices rise that month, logistics costs in the United States increase, and most xmmarkets.cnmodities will rise accordingly. On the contrary, when international oil prices fall, logistics costs cut interest rates and xmmarkets.cnmodity prices fall accordingly. In May this year, NYMEX crude oil price rose by 4.43%, a decrease of 18.55% xmmarkets.cnpared with April, with a relatively small absolute increase. Based on this, the core PCE data in the United States may rebound in May, but the increase is relatively small. This is consistent with the market's expected 0.1 percentage point increase.

As the PCE data expectations have not changed much, the possibility of the Federal Reserve opening a rate cut in advance is low. In terms of the bond market, the one-month and two-month U.S. Treasury yields performed normally, without inversion, which means that the Federal Reserve will be in two months.The probability of interest rate cuts is extremely low. On July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate resolution structure, which is likely to remain the benchmark interest rate of 4.25 to 4.5%. The three-month US Treasury yield and two-month US Treasury yield are inverted, which means that the Fed will initiate a rate cut within 2 to 3 months, corresponding to the Fed's interest rate resolution on September 17.

▲XM chart

From the trend structure perspective, at the daily level, the US dollar index is in a bear trend, the latest band is a decline, and the decline is relatively fierce. In the short term, the support range for this round of decline may be between 96.4 and 96.85, corresponding to the golden ratio of 1.382 and 1.618. In the medium term, the decline of the US dollar index will expand to 95.32~96.29, which is between 1.382~1.618 of the previous rebound band.

The effect of the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate cuts on the US dollar index is favorable, and the current decline of the US dollar index is mainly affected by the news. Israel and Iran have announced a ceasefire, and international risk aversion sentiment has declined. The US dollar is the highest risk aversion product in the money market. Although the US dollar did not show a significant upward trend during the escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, after the situation in the Middle East eases, some safe-haven funds will still flow out of the United States, which will lead to an accelerated decline in the US dollar index.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex Market Review]: The core PCE data in the United States is xmmarkets.cning in May, and the mainstream expectations have slightly increased to 2.6%". It is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Core PCE data in the United States hit in May, with mainstream expectations slightly increasing to 2.6%

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market analysis

Core PCE data in the United States hit in May, with mainstream expectations slightly increasing to 2.6%

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason