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US dollar index declines, focusing on testimony of Powell's semi-annual policy report

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar index is down, focusing on the testimony of Powell's semi-annual policy report." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The dollar index hovers below $98 on Wednesday in Asian trading, and the dollar fell on Tuesday after Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire and the euro rose to its highest level since October 2021, although Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that he expects inflation to start climbing this summer.

Analysis of major currencies

U.S.: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.92. The US dollar index DXY suffered another heavy blow on Tuesday, giving up its gains in the past two weeks and is now approaching the previous low support range. The decline was not only due to the cooling of risk aversion sentiment brought about by the Iraq-Iran ceasefire, but also because Federal Reserve officials sent a more dovish signal, triggering a rising bet on the market for lowering interest rates. With Trump's announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East and a decline in oil prices, the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe-haven currency plummeted. Fed Chairman Powell is about to attend the hearing in the future, and his remarks may become a watershed in the US dollar trend, and traders are waiting for it. On the technical chart, the US dollar index is struggling around 98.00, and the daily K-line oscillates and hovers near the Bollinger lower track, maintaining a significant downward trend structure. The MACD indicator runs below the zero axis, the bar chart shows slight signs of convergence, and the bulls' strength is not good; the RSI remains around 38, and the weak range has not changed, indicating that the market momentum is still relatively short. From the perspective of K-line pattern, the current US dollar index has tested the 97.60–97.90 area twice, forming the prototype of a "W bottom", but the bulls have limited strength and have not successfully broken through the 99.00 integer mark. Analysis believes that if the position cannot be on the level in the next few days, the structure may evolve into a weak rebound and bottoming out again.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1621, and the euro trend will depend on two major variables: one is whether the euro area canUsing the window of falling oil prices to improve trade accounts, the second is the degree of policy differentiation between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The technical aspect maintains the judgment of "breakthrough and retracement", and the breakthrough direction of the 1.1535-1.1700 range may determine the initial trend of the third quarter. It should be wary that if Trump's tariff remarks ferment again, they may impact the euro through risk sentiment channels. From the daily level, EUR/USD has stood firm above all key moving averages (50-day/100-day/200-day moving averages are at 1.1370, 1.1049, and 1.0847 respectively), and the medium-term trend remains bullish. After the exchange rate broke through the 1.1540 trend line resistance, the measurement target pointed to around 1.1700, which corresponds to the 127.2% Fibonacci expansion level of the rebound wave from June 10-12.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3616, and GBP/USD continued its rally on Tuesday as a proposed ceasefire between Israel and Iran was violated by both sides, despite warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite the continued development of the situation in the Middle East, risk appetite remains strong. On Wednesday, the UK schedule will include speeches from members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy xmmarkets.cnmittee (MPC). In the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the U.S. Senate. Technically, the GBP/USD maintained an upward bias, after a brief decline in the 50-day simple moving average of 1.3407, it then climbed, and seemed to be preparing to make a decisive breakthrough above 1.3600. Momentum remains bullish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, traders should be aware of the existence of geopolitical risks. Therefore, the escalation of the Middle East conflict may pave the way for a callback. If GBP/USD weakens, the first support is at 1.3550.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. The EU is preparing to take more tariff countermeasures to put pressure on the US

The Financial Times reported on the 24th that Bjorn Sebert, chief of staff of the European xmmarkets.cnmission President von der Leyen, said that before the deadline for trade negotiations between Europe and the United States on July 9, the EU needs to coordinate its position and be prepared to take more tariff countermeasures against the US to pose a "real threat" to the US. Seibert said von der Leyen is ready to take tariff countermeasures against the United States to strive for a better agreement. He hopes EU member states support a package of tariffs on €95 billion worth of U.S. goods, and said the EU is also preparing measures against the service industry, including taxes on U.S. technology xmmarkets.cnpanies and restricting U.S. xmmarkets.cnpanies from obtaining public procurement contracts.

2. The U.S. Senate Republicans plan to start voting on the tax bill on Friday

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Thun said Tuesday that he expects to start voting on Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" on Friday, which will keep the votes going until the weekend and disrupt the House of Representatives' plans for adjournment next week. But Thun is confident Congress will submit the bill to Trump by the July 4 deadline. Thun met with House Speaker Johnson about noon Tuesday. A few minutes before the meeting, Thun said he hadn't recently been with JohnsonHave a conversation about the bill. House leadership reportedly told people they are worried about whether the Senate version of the bill will pass. Modifications to state and local tax (SALT) deductions and Medicaid provider taxes are the biggest concern. Regarding SALT, Thun said, "I know this will be the last issue that needs to be solved, and so will the fact."

3. Fed Williams: Tariffs and uncertainties will slow down U.S. economic growth and inflation will rise this year

Feder Williams expects U.S. economic growth will slow down and inflation will rise this year, largely due to the impact of trade tariffs. "I expect uncertainty and tariffs to curb spending, reduce immigration, and thus slow labor growth," Williams said, "so economic growth is expected to slow down sharply to around 1% this year, with unemployment rising from its current 4.2% to 4.5% at the end of the year. He also expects inflation to rise to 3% as Trump's tariff policy drives prices, and then gradually slows to the 2% target in two years. Williams did not make any forward-looking xmmarkets.cnments on interest rate policy. "Keeping this moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is perfectly appropriate for achieving maximum employment and price stability goals," he said of the FOMC meeting. The Fed's current interest rate stance "gives us time to closely analyze newly received data, evaluate the changing prospects, and evaluate the risk balance of achieving our dual mission goals."

4. Powell suggests waiting

Fed Chairman Powell said we just recommend everyone wait a little longer and wait for more signs. There are no signs of weakness in the labor market at this time. If we see a weaker labor market, we will take steps to adjust. As long as the economy remains strong, we can give a brief pause here. There may be many future interest rate paths. Inflation may not be as strong as expected. If so, it is recommended to cut interest rates as soon as possible; if the labor market is weak, it is also recommended to cut interest rates as soon as possible, but if inflation and labor market perform strongly, it may cut interest rates later.

5. The unexpected decline in consumer confidence in the United States was subject to widespread concerns about the economy

The unexpected decline in consumer confidence in the United States in June was subject to concerns about the economy, labor market and personal financial prospects caused by trade policies. Data released by the World Federation of Large Enterprises on Tuesday showed that the consumer confidence index fell 5.4 points to 93. This is lower than expected by all economists surveyed. The expected indicator reflecting consumers' outlook for the next six months fell 4.6 points to 69, while the status indicator fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The decline in confidence almost wiped out nearly half of the rebound in the previous month, highlighting consumers' continued anxiety about the possible impact of the increase in U.S. import tariffs. Despite moderate inflation over the past three months, some consumers have become more cautious in spending.

Institutional View

1. Dutch International Bank: If Powell suggests a rate cut, the US dollar may fall further

Dutch International Bank analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that the dollar could fall further if Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a further rate cut when he testified to Congress at 22:00 tonight. He said Powell suggested the risk of a rate cut increased after Fed governor Waller and Bowman supported the first rate cut in July. The market may see any change in Powell's cautious attitude on the issue of interest rate cuts as a sign that Trump's pressure to cuts has "breaking through the shield of Fed's independence." This could lead to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar.

2. German think tank IFO: Germany's corporate confidence improved better than expected in June. Institutions: The US dollar soared under the escalation of the Middle East.

The US dollar rose to its highest level in nearly a month because the US crackdown on Iran stimulated demand for this safe-haven currency, while highlighting the risks brought about by rising oil prices. Currently, investors are worried that rising oil prices may exacerbate inflation and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. During the day, the US dollar rose 1% against the Japanese yen, after reports that Israel launched a new round of attacks on a key nuclear facility in Iran. "The rise in geopolitical uncertainty, and the risk of triggering another energy price shock, provides more support for the dollar in the short term, while the Fed is reluctant to cut interest rates again."

3. Institutions: PMI data suggests that the future prospects of the UK are undercurrents

A survey released on Monday showed that Britain's business activity expanded moderately in June as new orders grew for the first time this year, but employers cut jobs faster and were worried about the Middle East conflict. The S&P Global UK xmmarkets.cnprehensive PMI, which measures the private sector economy, rose to 50.7 from 50.3 in May, further slightly above the 50.0 growth threshold. The service industry, which dominates the UK economy, has achieved its fastest growth in three months. Factory activity has declined for the ninth straight month, but it was the smallest contraction since January. S&P said the report is consistent with the economic growth rate of about 0.1% between April and June, and is also consistent with the Bank of England's estimates of the basic pace of current economic expansion. Additionally, S&P said the consolidated PMI's employment, new export operations and future output index worsened in June, which was affected by "increased global economic and political uncertainty."

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