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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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The strong US dollar cannot hide the confidence of the Swiss franc, and the long-short struggle under the fluctuation pattern of the US dollar/ Swiss franc
Wonderful Introduction:
Green life is full of hope, beautiful fantasy, hope for the future, and the ideal of longing is the green of life. The road we are going tomorrow is green, just like the grass on the wilderness, releasing the vitality of life.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The strong US dollar cannot hide the confidence of the Swiss franc, and the long-short struggle under the fluctuation pattern of the US dollar/ Swiss franc." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (June 23), the US dollar/Cheng Franc (USD/CHF) encountered obstacles below the 0.8200 mark and traded around 0.817. Although the US dollar index (DXY) climbed to near its nearly two-week high due to the hawkish support of the Federal Reserve, the overall exchange rate trend remained weak, mainly limited by the Swiss franc's safe-haven demand and the support of the Swiss central bank's stability maintenance signal. Currently, the US dollar/SCHF is operating within the volatile range built over the past week, and the market chooses to wait and see.
State analysis:
The latest interest rate dot chart of the Federal Reserve shows that although two interest rate cuts are still expected in 2025, there is only one interest rate cut of 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027. In addition, the market is concerned that the new tariff policy proposed by US President Trump may intensify inflation, further weakening expectations of monetary policy easing, and the US dollar remains strong in the short term. However, the US dollar/CHF did not rise effectively, indicating that the market's current price of US dollar positive is relatively sufficient.
On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has sent a signal that it no longer tends to continue to cut interest rates, hitting the market's expectations of a return to negative interest rates, making the Swiss franc relatively strong. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has revived and global trade uncertainty has increased, and the risk aversion sentiment has heated up. The Swiss franc, as a traditional safe-haven currency, has suppressed the rebound space of the US dollar/Cherro Franc.
Technical:
From the chart, the daily K-line of the US dollar/Schwanstein band is currently operating within the convergence range between the lower and middle rails of the Bollinger band, and the fluctuation amplitude gradually narrows, showing a typical Bollinger band extrusion pattern. The current Bollinger band lower rail is at 0.8099, and the Bollinger middle rail is 0.8209.The upper track is 0.8319. The recent price test has not been able to continue to fall below the 0.8100 resistance, and it has not effectively broken through the 0.8250 resistance, and the exchange rate has formed a significant box structure.
In terms of MACD indicators, the DIFF line and DEA line are still below the zero axis, but tend to converge. The MACD bar chart turns slightly red, indicating that the bears' momentum has weakened but the bulls have not yet formed a breakthrough force. The RSI indicator runs around 45 and has not entered the oversold zone, indicating that although the exchange rate is under pressure, it does not constitute a technical rebound condition. The overall situation is still a weak oscillation pattern.
It is worth noting that the recent low point 0.8054 and the previous low 0.8039 form the prototype of a double bottom structure. Analysis believes that if this area can be maintained, the possibility of a technical rebound may be stimulated.
Prevention of market sentiment:
The current market is in a typical period of uncertainty dominance. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is hawkish, strengthening the expectations of the US dollar; on the other hand, the Swiss National Bank's policy stance is unexpectedly tough, enhancing the resilience of the Swiss franc. At the same time, risk aversion sentiment has a dual role in supporting and suppressing the exchange rate, making it difficult for market sentiment to form a consistent direction. Traders tend to wait and see, waiting for more fundamental catalysts and technological breakthrough signals.
The short-term volume is in a moderate state, and no obvious breakthrough behavior is seen, indicating that the main funds are also waiting for the signal to be clear before intervening. Emotional indicators show that market greed and fear are intertwined, bears dare not intervene in large quantities, and bulls have not formed a joint force.
Future Outlook:
Analysts believe that if the exchange rate can continue to maintain the support belt of 0.8100–0.8050 and become stronger with the technical indicators, it is not ruled out that a technical rebound will be launched. The first upward target is 0.8250, and further pay attention to Bollinger's upper track of 0.8319. However, if the 0.8050 line falls, the US dollar/CHF may re-enter the downward trend, testing the low point within the year.
In the medium and long term, the divergence between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the Swiss National Bank's position will still dominate the exchange rate trend. Analysts believe that if the US dollar continues to be strong and the US Treasury yield remains high, and risk aversion sentiment gradually declines, the US dollar/Cherro Franc is expected to gradually rise and leave the current consolidation range. On the contrary, if the Swiss franc continues to gain hedge support or the US dollar rise stagnates, the US dollar/ Swiss franc may continue to have a weak consolidation pattern until a new macro signal triggers directional choices.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The strong US dollar cannot hide the confidence of the Swiss franc, and the long-short struggle in the US dollar/ Swiss franc fluctuation pattern" is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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