The UK's economic recovery still faces multiple challenges. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on June 23

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.23%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.13%. The German DAX index fell 0.75%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.27%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.94%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.62%.

2. Market news interpretation

The UK's economic recovery still faces multiple challenges

⑴ According to Reuters on Tuesday (June 17), UK business activities expanded in June, with new orders growing for the first time since the beginning of the year, but employers' layoffs accelerated and they expressed concerns about the Middle East conflict. ⑵ S&P Global xmmarkets.cnprehensive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 from 50.3 in May, higher than Reuters' forecast of 50.5 and above the 50.0 growth threshold. ⑶ The service industry dominated the UK economy, with its growth rate reaching the fastest in three months, while manufacturing activity has declined for the ninth consecutive month, but the contraction has been the smallest since January this year. ⑷ S&P Global said the report is consistent with economic growth of about 0.1% between April and June, and is consistent with the Bank of England's estimate of the current pace of economic expansion. ⑸ Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, pointed out that the UK economy was still in a downturn at the end of the second quarter. Although business conditions have improved since the economic downturn in April, eliminating recession concerns, growth in business activities remained disappointingly weak. ⑹ Official data released earlier this month showed that the UK economy slowed sharply in April, reflecting specialThe impact of Trump's tariff remarks and the impact of the end of tax incentives for real estate sales. ⑺In June, the xmmarkets.cnprehensive PMI's employment, new export business and future output index all deteriorated, which was affected by "increased global economic and political uncertainty." ⑻The new order index has exceeded the 50 growth threshold for the first time since November. ⑼The investigation was conducted from June 12 to 19, during which Israel began to launch attacks on targets in Iran. ⑽Williamson also mentioned that the increase in layoffs also reflects the increase in employers' social security contributions introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in April. ⑾Sales prices have grown the slowest since January 2021, which will make the Bank of England feel relieved as it is monitoring the rise in consumer price inflation rates, hoping that this is only temporary. ⑿In June, the service industry PMI rose to 51.3 from 50.9 in May, and the manufacturing industry PMI rose to 47.7 from 46.4.

The Israeli government formulates economic xmmarkets.cnpensation plans for enterprises that suffer losses due to the war

It is reported that the Israeli government has announced a xmmarkets.cnpensation plan for people who have suffered economic losses due to the ongoing war with Iran, including subsidies for xmmarkets.cnpanies with reduced income sources and employees temporarily suspended, "to build the broadest possible safeguard system for the working people."

Spain announced a successful "bargaining" with NATO on the proportion of military expenditure

Spain Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced on the 22nd that Spain reached an agreement with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, without increasing the proportion of Spanish military expenditure in gross domestic product (GDP) to 5%. Some media analysts believe that the NATO summit is about to be held, and Sanchez may have a dispute with US President Donald Trump at the summit due to this decision.

The Minister of Justice said it is using "unprecedented strength" to crack down on Iraqi government agencies

According to the Israel Times, Israel Defense Minister Kats said on the 23rd that the Israel Defense Force "is currently using unprecedented strength" to crack down on "government targets" and government agencies located in the core area of ​​Tehran. In a statement released by his office, he said the relevant images will be released soon to show the severity of the damage.

The Speaker of the French National Assembly will visit China

At the invitation of Zhao Leji, Chairman of the Standing xmmarkets.cnmittee of the National People's Congress, the Speaker of the French National Assembly, Brown Piwei will lead a delegation to visit China from June 25 to 28 and attend the 12th meeting of the Exchange Mechanism between the National People's Congress and the French National Assembly.

Saudi public investment fund sets up a xmmarkets.cnmercial paper plan

According to Reuters on Tuesday (June 17), Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), established a xmmarkets.cnmercial paper plan. Saudi state television said on Monday the move aims to diversify its financing sources.

Global business activities remain resilient in uncertainty

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), Dow Jones News Agency showed that despite the continued uncertainty of global trade policiesAs well as the risks of rising energy prices brought about by tensions in the Middle East, business activity in some major economies in Europe and Asia is still growing. ⑵The outcome of the trade negotiations between the United States and the EU is unknown, but European xmmarkets.cnpanies are looking forward to President Trump’s abandoning the most destructive tariff threat. The two sides are now close to reaching an agreement on non-tariff trade issues, which may help the conclusion of a xmmarkets.cnprehensive agreement. ⑶ Eurozone xmmarkets.cnprehensive Purchasing Managers Index shows that business activity is still growing moderately and steadily, while survey data from Japan, Australia and India are rising, indicating that global economic activity has accelerated. ⑷ The eurozone economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to the impact of US tariff policies. If US market sales decline sharply, the eurozone may fall into a contraction. ⑸ Germany's manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery, and the growth rate of new orders hit a three-year high; UK business activities also accelerated due to the increase in orders and the recovery of confidence, while French activities were unexpectedly weakened due to the changes in the global trade pattern facing more intense xmmarkets.cnpetition. ⑹ Although European xmmarkets.cnpanies may believe that the tail risk of a sharp rise in tariffs will not be achieved, tensions in the Middle East are still an important risk for global business activities, and energy price fluctuations may have an impact on European inflation control and economic policies.

The UK PMI exceeded expectations but the pound responded flat

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), although the latest UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) exceeded expectations, the pound exchange rate was almost unaffected. ⑵Comprehensive PMI rose to 50.7 in June from 50.3 in May, indicating that the economy continues to grow, while the surveyed economists had previously expected the index to be 50.5. ⑶ S&P economist Williamson said in a press release to investigate that despite business conditions improving since the economic downturn in April, business activity growth remained “disappointingly weak”, indicating that the second quarter’s quarter-on-quarter growth was only 0.1%. ⑷Affected by this news, the pound fell 0.1% against the US dollar to US$1.3430; the euro fell 0.2% against the pound to 0.8551 pounds. The exchange rates of the two did not change much xmmarkets.cnpared with the level before the data was released.

EU carbon emission rights auction update

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), the EU auctioned 3.246 million spot EU carbon emission quotas on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) on Monday at a price of 72.0 euros per ton. ⑵The coverage ratio of this auction is 1.43. ⑶ Previously, on June 20, Germany auctioned 1.607 million carbon emission quotas on EEX at a price of 72.0 euros per ton, with a coverage ratio of 2.37. ⑷On June 11, Poland auctioned 2.0725 million carbon emission quotas on EEX at a price of 73.5 euros per ton, with a coverage ratio of 1.56.

Japan has been hit by the soaring crude oil yen's attractiveness

⑴ On Tuesday (June 17), the yen is usually a popular safe-haven currency under geopolitical pressure, but since Israel launched a missile attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets on June 13, the yen has fallen 2.4% against the US dollar and 1.4% against the Swiss franc. ⑵Japan almost all relies on imported oil, and the conflict has led toCrude oil prices have soared, threatening the country's trade balance and undermining the yen's attractiveness. ⑶ On the day the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out on February 24, 2022, the yen weakened against the US dollar, and then fell by 11.5% in March and April. ⑷ Speculative positions are still seriously tilted towards the strengthening of the yen, which may indicate a major change in hedge funds when closing positions. ⑸ The yen exchange rate also has a chain reaction to the Japanese stock market, and the depreciation of the yen usually supports the stock market because it increases the value of overseas income of the country's large exporters, but this positive impact may be short-lived due to rising manufacturing costs due to rising energy prices. ⑹For Japan’s unpopular government, the weak yen will exacerbate inflation as people already face rising prices, especially rice prices, which does not bode well before next month’s key Senate elections. ⑺In recent report to clients, Citi analysts wrote: "Risks in crude oil prices not only worsened Japan's trade balance, but also worsened its trade terms, fundamentally weakening the yen." They reiterated their forecast that the yen would depreciate to 1 dollar against 150 yen in September. ⑻In view of the moderate stance taken by the Bank of Japan at its policy meeting last week, the xmmarkets.cnpound downward pressure on the yen from the rise in crude oil on the rise may be amplified.

European natural gas prices rose due to geopolitical tensions

⑴ According to Reuters, the wholesale prices of natural gas in the Netherlands and the UK rose on Monday morning, and the market prepared for possible actions by Iran after the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, fearing that its closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to supply disruptions and increased insurance costs. ⑵ The benchmark Dutch near-month contract for the Dutch TTF center rose by 0.95 euros to 41.6 euros per megawatt-hour, according to LSEG data. ⑶ The contract briefly rose to 41.85 euros per megawatt-hour on Thursday, the highest since April 2. ⑷ UK contracts rose 2.39p to 98.55p/hot in recent months, and also reached its highest since April 2, of 98.66p/hot on Thursday. ⑸ The Iranian parliament allegedly approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and about 20% of the world's oil and gas demand passes through this strait, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council. ⑹Daniel Hainas, senior xmmarkets.cnmodity strategist at EY, said more than 20% of global LNG trade will be at risk, especially Qatar's exports, while European buyers are rushing to replenish exhausted stocks before the next heating season. ⑺Lu Mingpeng, senior natural gas and liquefied natural gas analyst at Restad Energy, said that although Iran would threaten to xmmarkets.cnpletely close the strait, its actions may be challenged by the US military in the region, but this undoubtedly increases the risk of any ships passing through the strait, causing market participants to consider the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in insurance costs. ⑻This news pushed oil prices to their highest since January, and spot Asian liquefied natural gas prices also reached a four-month high. ⑼EY Energy analysts pointed out that in addition to losing oil revenue, blocking the straits also backfires on Iran's relationship with China, the largest oil client, and may also give the United States more reasons to start a war, which hopes that oil prices will fall and inflation will fall. ⑽LSEG analyst Ole Skrinik said that from the market fundamentals, demand in Northwest Europe is expected to fall further due to rising temperatures, and a significant increase in Norway's exports will further support storage injections. ⑾In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract price remained almost flat at €73.01 per metric tonne.

Israel's current account surplus hit a six-quarter high in the first quarter

⑴Israel's current account surplus in the first quarter of 2025 reached US$5.72 billion, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2023, a significant increase from US$3.99 billion in the previous quarter after the upward correction. ⑵ The xmmarkets.cnmodity trade deficit narrowed to US$6.94 billion (previously worth US$7.87 billion), and the service trade surplus slightly fell to US$10.14 billion (previously worth US$10.49 billion). ⑶ The main revenue accounts achieved a surplus of US$80 million (previously deficit of US$740 million), while the secondary revenue surplus expanded to US$2.44 billion (previously worth US$2.11 billion).

The euro zone's service industry PMI rebounded to the boom-bust line in June, and the manufacturing industry showed signs of stabilization.

⑴ Preliminary data showed that the euro zone's HCOB service industry PMI rose to 50.0 in June, consistent with market expectations and rebounded from 49.7 in May, marking that the service industry has returned to stability after a brief contraction. ⑵ Although service industry activity has grown for the fourth consecutive month, growth has slowed to a three-month low. New orders in the manufacturing industry ended their shrinking trend that lasted for more than three years, and remained flat for the first time. ⑶Eurozone manufacturers continued to shrink their procurement activities in June, but the decline was mild, one of the weakest levels in three years. The number of jobs has decreased rapidly, and the rate of layoffs has accelerated xmmarkets.cnpared with May. ⑷ Manufacturing investment costs have dropped for the third consecutive month, while output prices have been lowered for the second time. Manufacturers remain optimistic about the prospects for the xmmarkets.cning year.

French private sector activities further shrank in June, with factory orders declining at the fastest since February

S&P Global said on Monday that French private sector activities further shrank in June, and weak manufacturing and services industries hit the French economy. The French Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) valued at 48.7 in early June, down from 48.9 in May. The Reuters survey predicts 49.2. Below 50 indicates a shrinking activity, and above 50 indicates expansion. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in June was 47.8, down from 49.8 in May and below the 50.0 forecast in Reuters survey. The initial value of the xmmarkets.cnprehensive PMI, xmmarkets.cnposed of the service industry and manufacturing industry, was 48.5, down from 49.3 in May. The Reuters survey predicts 49.3. The manufacturing industry is affected by factors such as excessive customer inventory, severe market environment and order delays. New orders fell for the 13th straight month, with factory orders falling at the fastest since February. Geopolitical tensions have also hit business activities, such as tariff uncertainty, Israel and Iran conflicts. As new order drops show, as domestic xmmarkets.cnmodities are expected, said Jonas Feldhusen, an analyst at HamburgCommercialBank.Demand is sluggish and the outlook is dark.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1468, a drop of 0.47%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) fell at the recent intraday level as it reached resistance from EMA50, affected by its exit from the bull channel resistance that restricted its previous short-term trading, and in addition, negative signals appeared on (RSI) after reaching overbought levels.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3386, a drop of 0.49%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price continued to decline on the last trading day, after reaching its EMA50 resistance, which forced it to succumb to the negative pressure around it, first: it broke the current 1.3440 support with the emergence of negative signals on the (RSI), which represents the 382% Fibonacci correction level of the previous bull market (1.3138 to 1.3632), which puts it under negative pressure.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3362.47, a drop of 0.19%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fluctuated on the last trading day, affected by breaking through the bullish trend line on a short-term basis. In addition, since its trading is below EMA50, this represents a dynamic resistance to the turn toward the upward trend, and the emergence of negative signals on (RSI), which suggests that the current negative impact has been expanded in the upcoming trend.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.048, an increase of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) rose in the last intraday trading, supported by positive signals on (RSI), noting that it entered an exaggerated overbought level xmmarkets.cnpared to the price movement, which indicates the loss of positive momentum, with the continued negative pressure due to its trading below the EMA50, except that it breaks through the dominance of a small bullish trend line and bearish correction wave on a short-term basis.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 73.910, an increase of 0.11%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices fell in recent intraday trading, subject to 75.0The impact of the $0 key resistance stability, negative signals appearing on (RSI), trying to get the positive momentum needed to help it break through resistance, dominates the main bullish trend in the short term, and trades above the EMA50, which forms a dynamic support that contributes to the stability of the positive scenario.

4. Institutional View

Capito Macro: Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes in October

Japito's latest PMI data supports the view of Capito Macro, that is, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as possible. Japan's xmmarkets.cnprehensive PMI rose to a four-month high of 51.4 in June. The PMIs in manufacturing and service industries both rose slightly in June. Capital macroeconomician Abhijit Surya wrote that the manufacturing output index indicates a resurgence of industrial production, while new export orders indicate moderate sales growth. The service industry PMI is much higher than the historical average, consistent with a considerable increase in consumer spending. All in all, the Bank of Japan is expected to have reason to raise interest rates in October, rather than hikes early next year as many people expect.

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