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market analysis

Iran's revenge arrow was on the string, and the supertanker turned around urgently!

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the ten thousand white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Iran's revenge is on the string, and the super tanker is turning around urgently!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On June 23, during the Asian market on Monday, spot gold opened near the 3,400 level. As the US military attacked Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, exacerbating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the market's risk aversion sentiment heated up; U.S. crude oil rose more than 2%, and once rose to US$78.40 per barrel, the highest since January 20.

Iran said last Friday that it would not discuss the future of its nuclear program in the event of Israel's attack, and Europe tried to persuade Tehran to return to negotiations. The White House said Thursday that President Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the United States may intervene in the conflict. This calmed tense investors worried about the U.S. attack on Iran soon, but the situation has been tense again after the weekend's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The recent surge in oil prices has added new inflation uncertainty to central banks in various regions, and they are already struggling to cope with the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on their economy.

While the Fed insisted on forecasts of two rate cuts this year last week, Chairman Powell warned that there will be "quite a lot of" inflation in the future. Analysts believe that Powell's statement has a "hawkish tendency" and further supported the US dollar's rise last week.

On June 21 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media "Real Social" that the United States has xmmarkets.cnpleted attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran's Ford, Natanz and Isfahan. According to Reuters, U.S. officials said that U.S. B-2 bombers were involved in the strike on Iran's nuclear base.

Asian market

The Japanese private sector rebounded slightly in June, with the xmmarkets.cnprehensive purchasing managers index rising from 50.2 to 51.4, the highest level since February. The service industry index strengthened, rising from 51.0 to 51.5, lead the recovery. The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose from 49.4 to 50.4, returning to the expansion zone.

S&PGlobal's AnnabelFiddes noted that business activity increased at the end of the quarter, but demand remained fragile. New businesses only grew slightly, while foreign demand for finished products weakened further. The xmmarkets.cnpany said ongoing concerns over U.S. tariffs and global trade uncertainty continue to put pressure on customer orders and export sales.

Nevertheless, there are signs that cost pressures have eased, with input prices rising at the slowest rate in 15 months. Employment has also improved, with the overall rate of employment creation accelerating to the fastest pace in nearly a year.

The Australian private sector showed a slight improvement in June, with the S&P Global xmmarkets.cnprehensive Purchasing Managers Index rising from 50.5 to 51.2. The service industry purchasing managers index climbed from 50.6 to 51.3, while the manufacturing industry purchasing managers index stabilized at 51.0.

According to S&PGlobal's JingyiPan, forward-looking indicators present a mixed picture. While output expectations remain optimistic, differences between industries are clear. New orders and future output in manufacturing are becoming more noticeably weaker, while the service industry continues to gain traction. Weak external demand remains a problem, with export orders showing their biggest drop in nearly a year.

In xmmarkets.cnbination with signs of easing inflation and slowing employment growth, the PMI report supports the RBA's further rate cuts in the second half of 2025.

European market

UK retail sales in May fell -2.7% month-on-month, far lower than expected -0.5%, setting the largest monthly decline since December 2023.

Food store sales fell sharply -5.0% month-on-month, causing the economy to decline, reversing the 4.7% month-on-month growth in April and setting the largest decline in the category since May 2021. Non-food store sales also fell, down -1.4% month-on-month, as department store and household related purchasing activities weakened under cautious consumer sentiment.

Despite setbacks in May, retail sales increased by 0.8% in the three months to May xmmarkets.cnpared with the first three months to February.

U.S. Market

Federal Director Christopher Waller hinted as early as July to be open to interest rate cuts, citing the smallest inflation risk for U.S. tariffs and growing concerns about the labor market.

In an interview with xmmarkets.cnBC, Waller said, “I think we have the ability to do that and it can be done as early as July,” while acknowledging uncertain whether the broader xmmarkets.cnmittee would agree.

Waller highlighted the risks of delaying action and warned against waiting for a significant decline in employment. “If you are starting to worry about downside risks in the labor market now, don’t wait,” he argued.

Regarding tariffs, Waller refuted concerns that tariffs would create continued inflationary pressures, reiterating that the price impact should be limited and one-time.

“Even if the tariffs are introduced later, the impact will remain the same,” he said, calling on the Fed to "start considering lowering policy rates at its next meeting" after suspending the easing cycle for six months.

Canada's retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month to CAD 70.1B in April, lower than market expectations from the previous month-on-month growth of 0.5%. Growth in 6 of the nine sub-industry supports growth, especially automotive and parts dealers. However, sales, excluding cars and fuel, rose only 0.1% month-on-month. In terms of sales, sales increased by 0.5%, but this momentum may not continue. Statistics Canada's pre-estimation for May showed a month-on-month decline of -1.1%.

Trade tensions between Canada and the United States are becoming a major drag on retail. Statistics Canada reported that 36% of retail businesses were affected in April, citing rising prices, shifts in demand and disruptions in supply chains. While most sub-industries achieved sales growth, all nine sub-industries reported some negative impact.

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