Iran shouts, "The game is far from over, US military attack on Iran triggers the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

Basic news

On Monday (June 23, Beijing time), spot gold opened near the 3400 level, as the US military attacked Iran over the weekend. Long Nuclear Facility has exacerbated geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and market risk aversion has heated up; U.S. crude oil rose more than 2%, and once rose to US$78.40 per barrel on the opening, the highest since January 20. The market is currently focusing on whether Iran’s counterattack measures include the xmmarkets.cnplete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Shamhani, posted a social platform on June 22 local time that even if the nuclear facilities are destroyed, the game is far from over - nuclear materials, local knowledge reserves and political will still exist. With the right to self-defense, the party who is good at strategy and avoids blind strikes will take the initiative in politics and action. The good show is still to xmmarkets.cne!

The US military attacked Iran's nuclear facilities on Saturday, exacerbating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. After the attack, although the Israeli Prime Minister said that we do not intend to involve the United States in the war. It is not yet confirmed that Iran's nuclear program has been eliminated. However, US Vice President Vance said that he will be xmmarkets.cnmitted to permanently demolishing Iran's nuclear program in the next few years, and the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to finalize This measure is set. In addition, Iran has expressed that at the invitation of Russia, Iran will go to the UN Security Council to hold an emergency meeting this week.

Focus on this day

European Central Bank President Lagarde made an introductory speech at the hearing held by the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs xmmarkets.cnmittee, and ECB Venezuel made a speech.

Stock markets

S&P 500 and Nasdaq index closed lower last Friday, and investors faced Iran-Israel before the weekendThe conflict is uneasy. Market trading fluctuated most of Friday. The S&P 500 closed down last week, while the Nasdaq recorded a weekly gain.

Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear program in the event of Israel's attack, while Europe tried to persuade Tehran to return to negotiations.

The White House said last Thursday that President Trump will decide whether the United States will intervene in the Israeli-Iran air war in the next two weeks. On June 21 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media "real social" that the United States has xmmarkets.cnpleted attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran's Ford, Natanz and Isfahan. According to Reuters, U.S. officials said that U.S. B-2 bombers were involved in the strike on Iran's nuclear base. "Investors are a little nervous about buying stocks in this situation," said Rick Meckler, a partner at CherryLane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. "Early large tech stocks such as Nvidia are one of the biggest negatives for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08% to 42,206.82 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 5,967.84 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.51% to 19,447.41 points. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained basically flat, with the S&P 500 falling 0.2%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.2%.

Trading volume last Friday was higher than the recent average. The day coincides with the "First Day of the Three Witches", which is the date when the quarterly stock options, stock index futures and stock index option contracts expire at the same time.

The US stock exchanges have accumulated 20.91 billion shares, while the average daily trading volume over the past 20 full trading days is 18.06 billion shares. Investors also evaluated the speeches of Fed officials. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last Wednesday, with Fed Chairman Powell warning that inflation could accelerate in the summer as Trump's tariffs impact consumers.

Federal Director Waller said he believes the inflation risk brought by tariffs is not high and the Fed should cut interest rates as early as the next meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin held a more modest view, saying there was no urgency to cut interest rates.

Gold market

Gold prices remained stable last Friday, and fell last week after U.S. President Trump postponed a decision to intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, and the market believes tensions have eased, but on Saturday the U.S. acted to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

Spot gold was basically flat at $3,368.68 per ounce last Friday, the lowest level since June 12, down 1.8% last week. The settlement price of U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $3,385.70.

In times of political and economic uncertainty, gold has traditionally been seen as a hedging tool. Meanwhile, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged last Wednesday. Although policymakers still expect a half-percentage cut this year, they believe the pace of rate cuts will slow slightly, and 2Rate cuts will be 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027.

Spot silver fell 1% to $36.02 per ounce, down 0.7% last week. Palladium fell 0.1% to $1,049 an ounce, but rose 2.1% last week. Platinum fell 3.1% to $1,266.72 per ounce, but rose for the third straight week. Oil market

Oil prices closed lower last Friday as the United States imposed new relevant sanctions on Iran, which marked a diplomatic approach by the United States that was interpreted by the market as bringing hope to reach an agreement through negotiation.

The Trump administration said on Friday that new Iran-related sanctions have been imposed on eight entities, one vessel and one individual for allegedly providing sensitive machinery to Tehran’s defense industry.

The U.S. Treasury Department said in another statement last Friday that it also imposed anti-terrorism-related sanctions against the Houthis, which are allied with Iran, on suspicion of illegal oil trade and transportation. The Ministry of Finance said the sanctions targeted four individuals, 12 entities and two ships because they imported oil and other illegal cargo to support the Houthi forces.

U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.28% to $74.93 in July. The more liquid August contract closed at $73.84. Brent crude oil futures rose 3.6% last week, while U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.7% in recent months.

On Thursday, U.S. President Trump said he could take two weeks to decide whether the United States is involved in the Israeli conflict with Iran. But the United States attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday.

On the 22nd local time, Iranian President Pezekiziyan condemned the United States' attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. He pointed out that this aggression fully demonstrates that the United States is Israel's mastermind of hostilities against Iran.

Rong RenGoh, investment manager at asset management firm Hanya, said: "The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran and introduces a new phase of geopolitical risks. The direct involvement of the U.S. may extend tensions in the region.

Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, but the highest security agency needs to finalize the measure. In the extreme situation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, crude oil prices could soar above $130 per barrel, which would drag global growth and push up consumer prices. On Sunday, the Iranian foreign minister said that Russia should Ross invites Iran to go to the UN Security Council for an emergency meeting.

Foreign market

The US dollar rose to its highest against the safe-haven yen last Friday, and rose against the Swiss franc. Iran supports continuing dialogue with Europe on its conflict with Israel, and tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi said Tehran supports further talks with Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the EU and is preparing to meet again soon after the talks in Geneva. Israel and Iran have had a week-long air battle, the Israeli government has tried to stop Tehran's nuclear ambitions, and market participants are celebrating the United StatesThe country is nervous about the possibility of attack on Iran, which has pushed the dollar to rise sharply. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% last week.

However, the U.S. dollar index remained flat last Friday after Fed governor Waller said that in light of recent inflation data, interest rate cuts should be considered as early as July.

FXStreet senior analyst Joseph Trevisani said: "The market has expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice. The Fed just confirmed this week. Therefore, Mr. Waller's remarks suggest that interest rate cuts may be cut earlier."

Iran said last Friday that it would not discuss the future of its nuclear program in the event of Israel's attack, and Europe tried to persuade Tehran to return to negotiations. The White House said Thursday that President Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the United States may intervene in the conflict. This calmed tense investors worried about the U.S. attack on Iran soon, but the situation has been tense again after the weekend's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar last Friday to $1.1534. The yen fell 0.29% against the US dollar to 145.88 yen.

The recent surge in oil prices has added new inflation uncertainty to central banks in various regions, and they are already struggling to cope with the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on their economy.

While the Fed insisted on forecasts of two rate cuts this year last week, Chairman Powell warned that there will be "quite a lot of" inflation in the future. Analysts believe that Powell's statement has a "hawkish tendency" and further supported the US dollar's rise last week.

瑞郎兑美元持平于0.8166瑞郎，但创下4月第三周以来的最大周线跌幅，此前瑞士央行将利率降至0%。 However, the Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which surprised investors, with the Norwegian kroner falling more than 2% against the dollar last week.

While geopolitical tensions were the focus of market attention last week, concerns about the trade war and its potential impact on prices, corporate margins and overall growth remain as Trump’s tariff deadline approached in early July. This puts pressure on the dollar, which has fallen by about 9% this year. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, which are positively correlated with risk sentiment, fell 0.3% against the dollar.

The pound was flat against the US dollar at $1.3471, giving up the gains after data showed UK retail sales hit the biggest drop since December 2023 last month.

International News

Trump: The United States xmmarkets.cnpleted attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran

On June 21 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media "Real Social" that the United States has xmmarkets.cnpleted attacks on three nuclear facilities in Iran, Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. According to Reuters, U.S. officials said that U.S. B-2 bombers were involved in the strike on Iran's nuclear base.

Iranian President: The United States is the mastermind of Israel's hostilities

On the 22nd local time, Iranian President Pezekichiyan expressed his views on the US's attack on Iran's nuclear facilitiescondemn. He pointed out that this aggression fully demonstrates that the United States is Israel's mastermind of hostilities against Iran. Pezeshiziyan said that although the Israeli attacks have caused significant losses to Iran, it is now a time to put aside differences and activate the huge potential of the whole people. The Iranian people have repeatedly stated that in order to defend the territory and dignity of their motherland, they never fear and never retreat.

South Korea Presidential Office: Lee Jae-ming will not attend the NATO summit

The South Korean Presidential Office announced on the 22nd that President Lee Jae-ming will not attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit scheduled to be held in The Hague, Netherlands from the 24th to 25th of this month. South Korea's National Security Office Director Wei Shengluo said through a written briefing on the 22nd that taking into account the various problems faced by South Korea and the uncertainty brought about by the situation in the Middle East, President Lee Jae-ming decided not to attend the upcoming NATO summit.

Russia: Willing to supply natural gas to Mexico

The Russian Embassy in Mexico said on the 21st that Russia is willing to supply liquefied natural gas to Mexico and is willing to share various technologies in the energy field with Mexico. The Russian Embassy in Mexico posted a post on social media X that day to announce the above news. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Zilyolev said: "We are already working with Mexico. We have excellent LNG technology, and we are ready to share these technologies (with Mexico) and supply LNG (to Mexico)."

Iran asked the United Nations agency to investigate the United States

The head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization wrote a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Grossi today (June 22) morning local time to request an investigation into the United States' attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in violation of international law. The letter stated that the US's actions brutally violated international law, especially the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The letter asked Grossi to cease inaction and condemn violations of international law in accordance with his statutory duties, while taking appropriate measures. Iranian media quoted the chairman of the Iranian parliament's Foreign Affairs xmmarkets.cnmittee as saying that according to Article 10 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Iran has the legal right to decide to withdraw from this treaty. Previously, the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization has repeatedly accused Grossi of favoring the United States and Israel on the Iranian nuclear issue.

U.S. Democratic lawmakers call for impeachment of Trump

According to the NBC, Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic New York State, said that President Trump's decision to attack Iran without Congress's authorization "absolutely and explicitly constitutes the reason for impeachment." She said the disastrous decision of the U.S. president to bomb Iran without authorization seriously violated the Constitution and Congress' powers of war.

The KMT extends cobalt export ban to arouse market attention

The KMT Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Bureau (ARECOMS) announced that it will extend the temporary cobalt export ban for another three months from June 21, 2025; the ban applies to all cobalt exports from Congo that originate from mining, including industrial, semi-industrial, and sub-regulation.mold and hand-mined cobalt; the reason for the extension of the ban is that the market continues to be in high stocks, and the government hopes to regulate market supply through this move.

Putin agrees with OPEC's assessment that oil demand will remain high

Russian President Putin said on Friday that he agreed with OPEC's assessment that oil demand will remain high. "I agree with your forecasts for energy resources and oil demand will remain at a high level," Putin told OPEC's secretary-general Alges at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. He cited OPEC's forecast for oil consumption of 105.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and said that this level "will remain in the near future." He said Russia appreciates the "depoliticized" nature of OPEC and is ready to work further with the organization.

Putin: Russia is ready to support Iran in developing peaceful nuclear energy

On June 20th local time, Russian President Putin said in an interview with the media during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the International Atomic Energy Agency does not have information about Iran's attempt to manufacture nuclear weapons. Putin said Iran has the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Russia opposes the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including Iran's acquisition of such weapons. Russia is ready to support Iran in developing peaceful nuclear energy. Putin also said that Russia has informed Israel many times and there is no evidence that Iran is suspected of intending to obtain nuclear weapons.

Domestic News

Cross-border Payment Pass was officially launched, and its first business was launched in Shenzhen

On June 22, the Cross-border Payment Pass was officially launched, marking that the rapid payment systems in the Mainland and Hong Kong have been interconnected. The reporter learned from the Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China that on the same day, the first cross-border payment service in the country was launched in Shenzhen for the southbound and northbound remittances for mainland residents. In terms of remittance amount, individuals have restrictions on their remittance amount. Cross-border payments are southward facilitating remittances, which are currently available to purchase foreign exchange amounts of US$50,000 per person per year; northward facilitating remittances are daily limit of HK$10,000 per person and annual limit of HK$200,000 per person (calculated by each participating institution).

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