Oil prices open more than 5% higher, markets worry that Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, gold hits 3450

Basic news

On Monday (June 16, Beijing time), spot gold opened up, touching $3,450 per ounce at the beginning of the session, as geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensified after Israel launched an attack on Iranian energy facilities over the weekend; oil prices also rose sharply at the opening, U.S. crude oil opened more than 5% higher, once hitting $77.49 per barrel due to market concerns about supply and concerns that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Trump said that the United States will continue to support Israel's defensive actions.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower last Friday after Iran launched missiles at Israel in response to Israel's fierce attacks to weaken its nuclear weapons capabilities. An Israeli military spokesman said Iran launched a missile, followed by an alarm from Israel across the country, and explosions came from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Earlier, Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories, causing tensions in the Middle East to escalate and global investor confidence was hit.

Oil prices surged nearly 7% amid concerns that the conflict could interfere with crude oil supply in the Middle East. U.S. energy stocks also rose simultaneously, with ExxonMobil rising 2.2%.

Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at BrownBrothers Harriman, said earlier on Friday, "It looks like we may be in a full-scale military conflict that will eventually lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which will pass through a third of the world's oil supply, could have a considerable impact on global markets."

Aviation stocks are concerned about the possible rise in fuel costs," said airline stocks.Fall. Delta fell 3.8%, United Airlines fell 4.4%, and American Airlines Group fell 4.9%.

The S&P 500 closed down 1.13% to 5976.97 points. The Nasdaq fell 1.30% to 19,406.83 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.79% to 42,197.79 points.

10 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell, with the financial sector leading the decline, down 2.06%, followed by the information technology sector, down 1.5%.

The US exchanges have sold a total of 17.9 billion shares, with an average daily trading volume of 18.2 billion shares in the previous 20 full trading days.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq fell 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%.

Original rose sharply for the second consecutive day, climbing 7.7%, setting a record high, and the xmmarkets.cnpany released an optimistic forecast driven by demand for artificial intelligence services.

The consumer price report released earlier last week was milder, with producer price data weaker than expected, and the number of initial unemployment claims remained largely flat, helping to calm investors' concerns about price pressure caused by tariffs. The market generally expects Fed policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting.

The University of Michigan Consumer Survey shows that consumer confidence improved for the first time in six months in June. The ratio of stocks in the S&P 500 index to rise is 6.1:1.

Gold market

Gold prices surged last Friday, with investors flocking to safe-haven assets after Israel's air strikes on Iran, once again raising concerns about wider conflicts in the Middle East.

Spot gold rose 1.3% to $3428.10 per ounce, just one step away from the record high of $3500.05 set in April. Gold prices rose about 4% last week. US gold futures rose 1.5% to settle at $3,452.80.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "Israel's strike on Iran's targets has sparked a little geopolitical panic in the market. Gold prices will remain high due to the expectation of retaliation in Iran."

Israeli launched a fierce attack on Iran last Friday, saying it had hit Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories and killed military xmmarkets.cnmanders, which could be a long-term action aimed at preventing Tehran from making nuclear weapons.

U.S. President Trump has suggested Iran was responsible for his own fault, after Iran rejected an ultimatum issued by the U.S. in negotiations to restrict its nuclear program.

The weak U.S. inflation data released earlier last week strengthened expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates and increased the attractiveness of gold.

Goldman Sachs reiterates its forecast that the central bank's structurally strong buying will drive gold prices to rise to $3,700 an ounce by the end of 2025 and to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026. Bank of America expects noGold prices will rise to $4,000 per ounce in the next 12 months.

In terms of physical gold, due to the sharp rise in prices, demand from major Asian centers weakened this week, and Indian gold prices broke through the important psychological barrier of Rs 1,000.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to $36.27 an ounce, up 0.9% last week. Platinum fell 5.9% to $1,219.03, up 4.8% last week. Palladium fell 1.3% to $1,041.51, down 1.1% last week. Oil market

Oil prices jumped last Friday and closed up 7% as Israel and Iran launched air strikes, triggering investors' concerns that the war could widely disrupt oil exports in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $74.23 per barrel, up 7.02%, after soaring more than 13% to an intraday high of $78.50, the strongest level since January 27.

U.S. crude oil closed at $72.98 per barrel, up 7.62%. During the session, U.S. crude oil jumped more than 14%, reaching its highest price since January 21. Both indicators crude oil hit the biggest intraday fluctuations since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022.

Israel said last Friday that it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile plants and military xmmarkets.cnmanders, warning that it would be the beginning of a long-term operation to prevent Tehran from making atomic weapons. Iran promises a harsh response.

According to multiple media reports, Iranian missiles hit buildings in Tel Aviv, Israel shortly after the transaction ended last Friday. An explosion also occurred in southern Israel.

According to the Israel Times, the IDF announced the list of nine Iranian nuclear scientists who had been successfully assassinated through military operations on the 14th local time, saying that these scientists had previously contributed to Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Iranian National Petroleum Refining and Sales xmmarkets.cnpany said that the oil refining and storage facilities were not damaged and are still operating.

Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with current daily output of approximately 3.3 million barrels and oil and fuel exports exceed 2 million barrels per day. According to analysts and OPEC observers, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, produce more oil to offset any disruption of idle capacity roughly equals Iran’s output.

U.S. President Trump said on social platforms that "the United States has nothing to do with the attacks of Iran tonight" and warned that if Iran launches attacks on the United States in any form, the U.S. armed forces will "retaliate on an unprecedented scale." In addition, Trump also claimed that the US could “easily facilitate an agreement to end the conflict”, but did not specify how to reach an agreement.

The latest developments have also heightened concerns about the interruption of important shipping channels in the Strait of Hormuz.

About one-fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, i.e. about 18 per day100,000 to 19 million barrels of oil, condensate and fuel. Analysts said Friday that Iran could pay a heavy price to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Foreign market

The US dollar rose against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Friday, and Israel's attack on Iran caused geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the market bought safe-haven assets.

Last Friday, Israel launched violent air strikes on Iran, attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories and killing a large number of military xmmarkets.cnmanders. Iran's national news agency Iran reported that in retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel.

Israel's main ally, U.S. President Trump urged Iran to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, suggesting Tehran rejected the U.S. ultimatum in negotiations to restrict uranium enrichment, and was blamed for the attack.

In afternoon trading, the US dollar rose 0.3% against the Japanese Yen to 143.88 yen and 0.1% against the Swiss franc to 0.8110 CHF. The US dollar ended its downward trend against these two safe-haven currencies for two consecutive trading days.

Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis InvestmentManagers in Boston, said, "Historically, the market will react subconsciously in the face of such geopolitical events, and history tells us that we should ignore such events in a lot of time. There are several things worth highlighting. How long will this action last? Obviously, the longer it lasts, the more severe the impact of confidence will be, and it will eventually put pressure on the market."

The dollar against the yen and the Swiss franc were still down last week due to market concerns about Trump's tariff policies. The dollar fell nearly 1% against the yen, marking its biggest weekly decline since mid-May. The dollar fell against the Swiss franc for the second consecutive week.

MonexUSA's trading director in Washington Juan Perez said the sudden outbreak of the Israeli-Iran conflict was caught off guard, but the current core focus is still on the issue of tariffs and global trade. Once a physical war breaks out and the conflict may become long-term and expand, the US dollar and gold will immediately become safe-haven assets - which is essentially a psychological stress response.

Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.4% against the US dollar to $1.1539, ending its four consecutive trading days of gains. However, the euro continued to rise against the dollar for the second consecutive week.

The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.2, ending the two consecutive trading days of decline. The index remains down for the second consecutive week.

Hell-haven demand drives gold prices to rise. Spot gold rose 1.6% to $3437.21 an ounce. Oil prices jumped to months highs boosted by the Israeli-Iran conflict. U.S. crude oil futures soared more than 8% to $73.76 a barrel.

In the context of the Middle East conflict, investors have basically ignored the data on the first rebound in U.S. consumer confidence in June. Data released by the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday showed that the consumer confidence index jumped to 6 this month0.5, surpassing Reuters' survey expectations of economists.

Monex's Perez said: "The problems we face this year have hit the market's confidence in the US dollar, and it is very difficult to solve them one by one. But at the same time, once a military or armed conflict occurs, there seems to be a consensus around the world: we should turn to the safest asset in history - the US dollar as a safe-haven currency and gold as a safe-haven xmmarkets.cnmodity."

International News

Trump: Iraq and Israel should reach an agreement to make the Middle East great again

Trump published a statement saying that Iran and Israel should reach an agreement and will also reach an agreement, just like I let India and Pakistan reach an agreement. We will soon achieve peace between Israel and Iran! Many telephone xmmarkets.cnmunications and talks are underway. I did a lot, but never got any honors, but it doesn't matter, the people understand. Make the Middle East great again!

Iranian President: If Israel continues hostilities, it will take a more decisive and harsh response

According to CCTV News, Iranian President Pezekichiyan said at a cabinet meeting on June 15 local time that if Israel's hostilities continue, Iran will take a "more decisive and harsh" response. Pezeshiziyan stressed that it is necessary to firmly oppose Israel's aggression. Recent events once again show that Israel "does not xmmarkets.cnply with any humanitarian, legal and international rules." In addition, Pezeshiziyan also criticized the support of the United States and some Western countries for the Israeli attacks, and stated that just as the appropriate and powerful responses taken by the Iranian armed forces so far, if Israel's hostilities continue, Iran will take a "more decisive and harsh" response.

Iranian Foreign Minister: Tehran does not want the conflict to expand unless it is forced to do so

Araghi said that Iran does not want the conflict with Israel to expand to neighboring countries unless the situation forces it to do so. The foreign minister said that Israel's attack on the maritime South Pars gas field shared by Iran and Qatar was a "blatant aggression and extremely dangerous act." "Dragging the conflict to the Persian Gulf is a strategic mistake, with the goal of dragging the war out of Iranian territory." According to Reuters, the foreign minister accused Israel of trying to undermine ongoing Iraq-US nuclear negotiations, which he believes could have opened the way for an agreement. "The Israeli attack would never have happened without the acquiescence and support of the United States," Araghi said. He added that Tehran did not believe what the United States claimed was that Washington was not involved in the recent attack. "If the United States wants to prove its goodwill, it is necessary to condemn Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities." The Bank of Japan is reported to discuss the reduction in bond purchases in half next week

According to the Nikkei Shimbun on Saturday, the Bank of Japan is considering halving its quarterly reduction in Treasury bond purchases to 200 billion yen from April 2026 (currently a quarterly reduction of about 400 billion yen). Reports say the proposal will be in JapanThe central bank will discuss it at monetary policy meetings next Monday and Tuesday and is expected to receive support from most policy xmmarkets.cnmittee members.

Bar, director of the Israeli State Security Administration, announced his resignation

On the evening of June 15 local time, Ronen Barr, head of the Israeli State Security Administration (Simbet), announced his resignation. On March 21 this year, the Israeli government unanimously decided to remove Director Ronen Balsinbet from his post, which aroused opposition from many parties. Subsequently, the Israeli High Court issued a temporary injunction to "freeze" the decision of the Islamic government to remove Barr from his post. Regarding the government's decision, Barr had told the High Court that the decision was not for professional considerations, but because Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted him to be loyal to the Prime Minister himself on a series of issues.

Zelensky: I do not want to see aid to Ukraine decrease due to the escalation of the Middle East situation

On the 13th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky said at a press conference that the escalation of the Middle East situation will lead to increased aid to Israel, and Ukraine does not want to see aid to Ukraine decrease as a result. In addition, he said that fighting was taking place on the border in the direction of Sume, and the Ukrainian army stopped the Russian offensive in the direction of Sume, and the area gathered 53,000 Russian soldiers, with the maximum depth of the battle being 7 kilometers away from the border. He also denied that the Russian army had advanced to Dnepropetrovsk Oblast.

The Bank of Japan is reported to discuss the reduction in bond purchases next week

According to the Nikkei Shimbun on Saturday, the Bank of Japan is considering halving its quarterly reduction in Treasury bond purchases to 200 billion yen from April 2026 (currently, the scale of Treasury bond purchases decreased by about 400 billion yen per quarter). The proposal will be discussed at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting next Monday and Tuesday, and is expected to receive support from most policy xmmarkets.cnmittee members, the report said.

Domestic News

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The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Oil prices opened more than 5%, the market is worried that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz and the gold price will hit 3450". It is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

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