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market analysis

USD/JPY fell below 148.00 due to slowing U.S. inflation, Fed's bets on interest rate cuts solid

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar/Japanese yen fell below 148.00 due to slowing US inflation, and the Federal Reserve's bet on interest rate cuts is stable." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The yen (JPY) rose slightly against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday as U.S. inflation data fell below expectations, reigniting speculation about the Fed's interest rate cut later this year.

As of press time, the US dollar/JPY fell 0.43% and traded below 148.00, after failing to continue Monday's rebound driven by improved global risk sentiment and easing trade tensions.

This trend followed a sharp rebound on Monday, driven by optimism about a temporary truce between the U.S. and China tariffs. However, optimism has weakened by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which shows that inflation slowing exceeded expectations, putting pressure on the dollar.

The US CPI is lower than expected and rekindles the dovish Federal Reserve's outlook

The US CPI report in April showed inflation pressures eased. Overall CPI rose only 0.2% (monthly), lower than the 0.3% expectation and rebounded from -0.1% in March.

On the year, inflation fell to 2.3%, lower than expected 2.4%.

Excluding the core CPI of food and energy prices with high fluctuations also rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than 0.3%, and the annual rate remained at 2.8%.

These data have strengthened market confidence that the Fed may start cutting interest rates later this year. According to CME Fed Watch Tool, traders are now expecting a 25 basis point cut in September, with confidence increasing.

Federing speeches by Fed spokesman and Powell on Thursday

The unexpected downward trend in inflation puts pressure on the dollar again, and the dollar/yen stagnates after Monday's gains.

Investors are now turning their attention to a series of speeches from Fed officials.

On Wednesday, directors Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson and Mary Daly will speak, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. The market will closely monitor any dovish tendencies that may further support policy relaxation expectations.

The yen is supported by a rate of change in yields and a cautious Bank of Japan outlook

The yen strengthens slightly as U.S. Treasury yields decline slightly due to the CPI report. The narrower interest rate spread reduces the attractiveness of USD/JPY arbitrage trading, providing some support for the yen.

However, due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s continued easing stance, the yen has limited upside potential. The yen's gains could be limited in a situation where the Bank of Japan has no clear signal to tighten its policies.

Key Japanese data will be released soon, including PPI and GDP

Investors are also paying attention to Japan's economic calendar. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday and is expected to grow 4.0% year-on-year in April, slightly lower than 4.2% in March. Softer data suggests that inflationary pressures may be alleviated and reduce the reasons for the Bank of Japan to tighten its policies.

Attention will then turn to the release of Japan's first-quarter GDP on Friday. Economists expect a 0.1% contraction in the first quarter, following a 0.6% increase in the fourth quarter.

A more significant slowdown could undermine expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike this year, while an unexpected upside could provide new support for the yen.

The key resistance level of 148.00 remains unchanged, and the bull momentum is paused at the convergence of Fibonacci

The US dollar/yen fell back on Tuesday after failing to break through the 148.20 level, which is the midpoint of the year-to-date trend.

The region has been acting as a resistance and support, limiting gains in late March and triggering a price reaction in early April, marking its important technological turning point.

As of press time, the pair was trading at close to 147.62, just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 147.14, which was drawn from January highs of 158.88 to April lows of 139.89.

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) provides the next layer of dynamic support at 146.27, strengthening the short-term bull market structure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 58.07, indicating that the bull market momentum remains, but is no longer in the overbought area.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The US dollar/Japanese yen fell below 148.00 due to slowing US inflation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bet is solid". It is carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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USD/JPY fell below 148.00 due to slowing U.S. inflation, Fed's bets on interest rate cuts solid

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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market analysis

USD/JPY fell below 148.00 due to slowing U.S. inflation, Fed's bets on interest rate cuts solid

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XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

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The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason