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Gold's early trading highs become the key, Europe and the United States pay attention to daily resistance

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The early high of gold becomes the key, and Europe and the United States pay attention to daily resistance." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

On Tuesday, the US CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, lower than expected, injecting vitality into the gold market. Under low inflation, investors' demand for preserving value surges, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September. Gold, as an anti-inflation and safe-haven asset, has significantly increased its attractiveness. Although inflation is currently moderate, the tariff effect may cause prices to rise in the future, driving investors to allocate gold. Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices. The Russian-Ukraine talks and the India-Pakistan conflict are full of uncertainty. The United States may intervene in the Russian-Ukraine peace talks, exacerbating the geopolitical risk premium and prompting investors to increase their allocation of gold. At the same time, the US dollar index fell 0.8%, forming a negative correlation with gold and strengthening the value of gold investment. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase adjusted their expectations and expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time in September, with a rate cut of about 51 basis points throughout the year. Looking ahead to the future market, despite the small economic data on that day, the US Secretary of State's participation in NATO meetings may affect the geopolitical situation. Federal Reserve officials' speeches may also reveal the direction of policy. These factors will have an important impact on the gold market. Investors need to pay close attention and adjust their strategies.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend on Tuesday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 101.79 on the day, and fell to 100.882 at the lowest point, and finally closed at 100.961. Looking back at the market performance on Tuesday, the price was under short-term pressure during the early trading session, and then continued to be weak during the day, and after the US trading, the price fell below the four-hour support position. The daily line finally ended with a big negative. At present, we need to be careful of the price going back to the daily support again and then rising.

From the multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed at 102.90 at the weekly levelRegional resistance, then from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price support position is in the 100.00-10 area over time, so the subsequent bands are bullish. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, the price fell below the four-hour support yesterday. As time goes by, the current four-hour resistance is in the 101.30 area. At the same time, according to the short-term one hour, yesterday's price continued to be weak, and the current price has also been adjusted. So beware of the price again testing the daily support and stopping.

The US dollar index has a long range of 100.00-10, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 101-101.80

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed an upward trend on Tuesday. The price rose to the highest point of 3265.38 on the same day, and fell to the lowest point of 3215.73 on the spot, closing at 3249.88 on the spot. On Tuesday, gold broke through the high point of the early morning of the day after a short-term fluctuation during the early morning session, and then the European and US sessions fluctuated, but the daily line ended in the end. At present, we need to be careful of the price falling back on the daily resistance and gap area before the 3200 falls below.

From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four-month period, so according to the rhythm, there have been four consecutive positives. For the current May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3100 area. So from a mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view, and the price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise. From the daily level, after the opening of Monday, the price gap directly breaks the daily support position, and the previous support will change the resistance. Currently, the upper daily resistance is in the 3302 area, and the gap position is in the 3325 area. At the same time, from the four-hour level, as time goes by, the upper 3257 is currently the key resistance. Although the short-term price is under the four-hour resistance, if the European session time point does not continue to be under pressure, you need to be careful of upward rebound performance in the future. The current 3200 position needs to be wary of repeated market conditions before breaking.

The key position of 3200 below gold is not broken before taking it carefully. The gains and losses of 3256 in the morning trading today became the key

Europe and the United States

Europe and the United States, European and American prices generally showed an upward trend on Tuesday. The price fell to 1.1081 at the lowest point on the day, and rose to 1.1194 at the highest point and closed at 1.1184 at the same time. Looking back on the performance of European and American markets on Tuesday, the price of the morning opening directly received short-term support, and then continued to rise. The price broke the four-hour resistance position in the evening, and the mostThe final closing was above the four-hour key position, and the daily line ended with a big sun. At present, the price is generally located in the weekly support and daily resistance range.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0800, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0960 area, and continues to be bullish from the perspective of the mid-line. The price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price breaks the daily support after fluctuating at a recent high level. At the same time, the price continues to suppress the daily resistance after breaking down. For short-term short-term treatment at 1.1280 on the band, it will only turn upward after a subsequent break, otherwise it will be short-term treatment on the right. From the short-term four-hour level, yesterday's price broke through the U.S. session and closed above the four-hour resistance, the short-term resistance becomes support. In the short term, the upward trend is temporarily based on the 1.1140-50 range, and focus on the 1.1240-1.1280 area above.

Europe and the United States have a range of 1.1140-50, with a defense of 50 points, and a target of 1.1240-1.1280

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Wednesday, May 14, 2025

① To be determined OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report

②14:00 Germany's April CPI final value

③17:15 Federal Reserve Director Waller delivered a speech

④21:10 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech< /p>

⑤22:30EIA crude oil inventories in the United States to May 9th week

⑥22:30EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the United States to May 9th week

⑦22:30EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the United States to May 9th week

⑧The next day at 05:40Federal Daly attended a fireside conversation

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