Oil prices rise nearly 3%, gold prices boosted by dips, Trump's visit to the Middle East sparks geopolitical concerns

Basic news

On Wednesday (May 14, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3255.50, gold prices rose on Tuesday, driven by dips. At the same time, the weaker than expected inflation data released by the United States also provided support for gold prices; US crude oil trading was around 63.66 US dollars per barrel, US oil rose nearly 3% on Tuesday, boosted by temporary tariff reduction reports, Trump visited the Middle East, and Iran issued a neutral warning to neighboring countries, which also triggered market concerns about the geopolitical situation boosted oil prices.

Stock and Nasdaq Index closed higher for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as inflation data was lower than expected, raising optimism among investors during the trade truce. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell, with the biggest drag on the stock market, which plummeted 17.8%, after the insurance giant suspended annual performance expectations and its CEO stepped down.

The S&P 500 index rose for the first time this year since late February, after data showed that U.S. consumer prices rebounded moderately in April, with overall inflation rising by 0.2% last month, while economists expected to rise 0.3% and decline by 0.1% in March. CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, while CPI rose 2.4% in March.

Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth in Neapolis, said: The sustainability from yesterday was positive, and the CPI data did not interfere with the market trend.

Schleif described Monday's improvement in trade relations as "an overnight transition from iceberg to80 degrees spring day, and said the 90-day suspension of tariffs happened to catch up with retailers importing goods, accumulating inventory for back-to-school and year-end holiday shopping.

After the tariff truce, several brokers lowered the probability of a U.S. recession. Traders tend to bet the Fed will sluggish interest rate cuts by the end of September, but still expect to cut rates twice by the end of the year, at 25 basis points each.

After Tuesday's inflation data and Monday's trade easing, R. Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group, said: "This does give the Fed the ability to focus on the labor force side of the dual task in the next meeting. If we don't see inflation rebounding from now until the end of the year and trade policy can bring some certainty, then Fed officials will restart the rate cut cycle," McKinney said. "Not because of the weak economy, but because the slowdown means that inflation-adjusted federal funds rates are still restrictive and there is room for a downward adjustment. "

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.64% to 42,140.43 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 5,886.55 points; the Nasdaq rose 1.61% to 19,010.09 points.

Six of the 11 major industry sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the technology sector the largest gain, closing up 2.25%; healthcare stocks The biggest drop, closing down 2.97%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq regained their declines since the Liberation Day, when U.S. President Trump announced xmmarkets.cnprehensive reciprocal tariffs.

Gold market

Gold prices rose Tuesday after a sharp drop the previous day, driven by dips, while weaker than expected inflation data released by the U.S. also supported the price.

Spot gold rose 0.4 %, to $3,246.95 per ounce, U.S. gold futures settlement price rose 0.6% to $3,247.8.

Gold prices hit new highs in 2025 due to concerns about economic slowdowns after U.S. President Donald Trump’s full tariffs, strong central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions and increased funds from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau announced Tuesday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously predicted that CPI would rise 0.3% month-on-month.

The report is indeed slightly favorable for the precious metals market, because it is not a problematic inflation report and will not allow the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate cuts. "Financial markets expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in September.

Spot silver rose nearly 1% to $32.89 per ounce, platinum rose 1.4% to $985.92 per ounce, and palladium rose 1% to $955.15 per ounce.

Oil market

Crude oil futures climbed more than $1.60 per barrel on Tuesday, boosted by temporary tariff cuts and better-than-expected inflation reports. Brent crude oil settlement price was $66.63 per barrel, up 2.57%. U.S. crude oil closed at $63.67, up 2.78%.

John Kilduff, partner at AgainCapitalLLC, said this morning's data also gives the Fed room to start taking some action. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% in the 12 months to April, the smallest year-on-year gain in four years, causing Wall Street xmmarkets.cnpanies such as JPMorgan Chase and Barclays to lower their forecasts for the U.S. recession in the xmmarkets.cning months, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday.

OPEC+, which consists of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, is planning to increase oil exports in May and June, which is believed to limit the room for oil upside. In other respects, signs generally indicate that demand for refined fuels remains strong. "Although the outlook for crude oil demand worsens, positive signals from the fuel market cannot be ignored." The dollar fell on Tuesday, giving up some of the gains that had been sharply gained the day before, as inflation data were lower than market expectations. The U.S. Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, lower than the 0.3% expected by economists surveyed by Reuters, and the Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% in March.

Nevertheless, inflation may rebound in the xmmarkets.cning months as U.S. tariffs raise the cost of imported goods.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at AnnexWealth Management, said that while the overall figure of inflation is better than expected, there are signs that tariffs have pushed up prices. The heat of tariff reduction is a good thing, as price impacts will soon begin to penetrate consumers’ shopping baskets, and a trade restart may mean that the Fed can gradually resume rate cuts later this year. "

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, fell 0.67% to 101.05; the euro rose 0.81% to 1.1177.

The dollar is still nearly 3% lower than the level when President Trump announced tariffs on April 2. Trump's measures have prompted overseas investors to reduce their investment in U.S. stocks and bonds.

The dollar fell 0.57% against the yen to 147.6 yen, which had risen more than 2% the day before. The dollar fell 0.54% to 0.841 against the Swiss franc, and climbed 1.6% on Monday.

The easing of trade tensions has caused market participants to lower the probability of a recession, while also lowering expectations for the timing and extent of the Fed's interest rate cut this year. Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Barclays, have recently shrunk their forecasts for the U.S. recession andViews on the Fed's easing policy.

According to LSEG data, it is currently believed that the Fed may cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting, while the previous view was to start a rate cut at its July meeting. Currently, the rate cut in 2025 is estimated to be about 51 basis points.

The pound rose 0.95% against the US dollar to $1.3297, the biggest single-day gain since April 28.

International News

U.S. officials: The next trade agreement will be announced when Trump returns to China

U.S. National Economic xmmarkets.cnmission Director Hassett said that when U.S. President Trump returns to the United States (Trump is visiting the Middle East), Trump will announce the next trade agreement. Hassett also said that there are about 20-25 agreements on the trade negotiation table at present.

Affected by US tariff policies and other factors, the German economy will continue to decline

The latest report released by the German Economic Research Institute on the 13th stated that the German economy is still in recession, and the report predicts that Germany's economic output will fall by 0.2% this year. Previously, the German economy had shrunk for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024. Germany is suffering from severe impacts from the U.S. government tariff policies and global uncertainty, and citizens remain cautious when making bulk procurements.

The United States and Ukraine signed additional execution documents for the mineral resources cooperation agreement

Ukraine and the United States have signed additional documents on the natural resources cooperation agreement, which is a key requirement put forward by US President Trump and is crucial to maintaining military aid to Ukraine. The move marks the imminent conclusion of a major profit-sharing agreement between the two countries to ensure U.S. investment opportunities in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs' Press Office revealed to reporters in Kiev on Tuesday that the two sides have signed two documents, specifying the operating mechanism of the investment fund jointly established by Ukraine and the United States. The fund has been planned in a mineral agreement previously approved by the Ukrainian parliament, which requires Ukraine to supplement fund funds through a tax share of new mining licenses and other payments, while the United States can participate through financial investment or military aid.

The U.S. oil industry is struggling due to the impact of US tariff policies

The U.S. oil industry is struggling due to the double blow of US government tariff policies and falling oil prices, especially smaller producers, are in an increasingly difficult situation. It is reported that the U.S. government's abuse of tariffs has damaged the interests of U.S. oil producers, especially the equipment they use is mostly imported from countries such as South Korea, Brazil and Mexico. The report quoted a research from an industry consulting firm that the prices of pipes used in the U.S. oil industry are expected to rise 40% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year. Kirk Edwards, former chairman of the Permian Basin Oil Association, said frankly that he expressed disbelief that the U.S. oil and gas industry was "being used as a scapegoat throughout the tariff plan." The article said that in the face of the US government's abuse of tariffs and falling oil prices, smaller independent American oil producers are in a more difficult situation than industry giants such as ExxonMobil and Chevron.Difficult. In the past few weeks, independent U.S. oil producers have announced a total cut of $1.8 billion in spending, as evidenced.

Trump declared that Saudi Arabia will invest $1 trillion in the United States far exceeding the previous announcement of the White House

U.S. President Trump, who is visiting the Middle East, said that Saudi Arabia will invest $1 trillion in the United States. Trump's actions in the Middle East lasted four days. In order to consolidate relations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he used Leah as his first stop on his first overseas trip since returning to the White House. CEOs of well-known American xmmarkets.cnpanies accompanied him. Trump said at the Saudi-US Investment Summit, "Look at the presidents they used to have, sometimes they sometimes have less than a trillion dollars in a few years, and we basically did it in two months." As Saudi Arabia's actual powerhouse, Crown Prince Salman initially promised only an additional $600 billion in the United States within four years, a figure consistent with what was disclosed in the White House press release. But Trump is obviously not satisfied. He repeatedly stated before his visit that he hoped Saudi Arabia would "combine" the investment figures to $1 trillion. The official has not disclosed the specific details yet, and it is not clear what aspects the digit differences are mainly reflected. The practical operability of these promises is also questioned, and it is important to know that $1 trillion is almost equivalent to Saudi Arabia's GDP.

The UK recommends setting a country quota cap for steel imports

The UK Trade Relief Agency (TRA) recommended on Tuesday that country quota caps should be imposed on certain categories of steel imported into the UK to help protect the UK's steel production industry. The government agency said in a statement that the quota cap measures will take effect from October 1 this year.

Trump poll approval rating rises

According to Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump's approval rating rises to 44%, 2 percentage points higher than the poll at the end of April. 59% of respondents believe that this year's recession will be attributed to Trump, while 37% blame former U.S. President Biden.

Domestic News

Oil and gas exploration technology continues to innovate. Shale gas has become an important successor area for my country's oil and gas production increase.

On the 13th, it learned from Sinopec that a shale gas exploration well located in the Sichuan Basin has a ridge depth of more than 5,300 meters, breaking the record of ridge depth of shale gas wells in my country and providing reference experience for my country's ultra-deep shale gas exploration. my country has the characteristics of "rich coal, poor oil and less gas" and is a major oil and gas importer. In recent years, with the continuous innovation of key technologies for oil and gas exploration and development, shale gas is becoming a successor field for my country's oil and gas exploration and sustainable increase in storage and production.

International Investment Bank raises China's stock ratings Analysts of foreign-invested institutions believe that rising risk appetite is expected to drive more funds into A-shares

China-US economic and trade talks add confidence to the global economic pressure relief, and foreign-invested institutions are speaking out to demonstrate their "boost" enthusiasm for Chinese assets. On May 13, JPMorgan raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025, UBS in its latest reportIt is believed that China's economic growth expectations are expected to improve. In terms of capital markets, Nomura raised China's stock rating from neutral to tactical overweight, becoming the first major Wall Street bank to raise China's stock rating this week.

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