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Analysis of the latest trends of gold, USD index, yen, euro, pound, Australian dollar and RMB
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Analysis of the latest trends of gold, US dollar index, Japanese yen, euro, pound, Australian dollar and RMB". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Basic news
On Tuesday (May 13), the US dollar index was around 101.60; the spot gold price was around 3,240 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will receive the US CPI report, which is expected to trigger major market trends.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, closed up 1.38% at 101.83 on Monday as the U.S. and China reached an agreement to temporarily cut mutual tariffs to alleviate concerns about a global recession.
According to the US-China joint statement released on Monday, the United States will reduce the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in April this year from 145% to 30%, and the tariffs imposed on US goods by China from 125% to 10%, and the new measures are valid for 90 days.
Hard-haven asset gold plummeted nearly 3% on Monday, mainly because the market risk aversion sentiment cooled after the U.S. and China announced a temporary "rest" in the trade war. Spot gold prices closed down $90.49 on Monday, down 2.72%, at $3234.95/ounce; gold prices plummeted to $3207.71/ounce during the session.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in April will be released, reflecting the latest inflation trend.
Analysts generally expect that the US CPI in April is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, followed by a decrease of 0.1% in March; the year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain at the level of 2.4%. The core CPI of the United States, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in April, followed by a 0.1% increase in March; the year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain at 2.8%level. Analysts pointed out that if the US CPI data is stronger than expected, the US dollar may strengthen further and hit other major non-US currencies and gold prices.
Analysts of Wells Fargo said that the rebound in CPI month-on-month growth in April was mainly a correction to the abnormally sluggish data in March, reflecting the coexistence of the decline in core service inflation and the rebound trend of core xmmarkets.cnmodity inflation. In the future, with the emergence of tariff impacts and the weakening of seasonal factors, there will be great uncertainty in the inflation trend.
Most forecasters said the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report released on Tuesday will show the initial impact of tariffs imposed on China and other countries last month. The impact may be limited, as many imported goods on U.S. shelves last month arrived in the U.S. before the new tariffs came into effect.
Economist Anna Wong and others wrote in a report on Monday: "There is a possibility of moderate inflation in China's import-intensive CPI categories such as toys, footwear and clothing. Retailers found it difficult to pass on price increases without causing a significant drop in demand - although they will still try. If this effect prevails, the net impact of tariffs will not be as inflationary as xmmarkets.cnmonly believed."
The following is xmmarkets.cnpiled by the editor:
Gold prices fell as expected and hit lows yesterday. In the short term, gold prices may further fall to $3150-3100 per ounce. Dollar Index
The United States and China agreed to cut tariffs for 90 days, which sowed the seeds of positive sentiment for the market. The U.S. index once tested our target at 101.97, and then fell back. Now, as long as it is below 102, the index may fall back to 100-99, or even lower in the next few trading days. The US CPI is scheduled to be released today.
Euro/USD
Euro/USD fell to a low of 1.1065 yesterday as the dollar strengthened. If the U.S. dollar index falls as expected, the euro/dollar could rise to 1.13 in the short term.
Euro/JPY
Euro/JPY tested the upper end of the range 165-160, and then fell back. If the decline continues, support levels around 163 may be tested. In general, the euro/JPY needs to achieve a decisive breakthrough towards either end of the above range to further clarify the direction.
Dollar/JPY
Dollar/JPY broke through our target level 147, rising to 148.65, and then the rally paused. As long as it remains at a small place of 148.50-149.00, the pair may fall back to 146-145 in the next few trading days.
U.S./RMB
U.S./RMB has been falling, consistent with our bearish view. As long as it is below 7.20, the decline may expand to 7.15 in the near future and then try to rebound.
Australia/USD
Australia/USD failed to maintain its momentum of rising above 0.64 and turned around and fell from 0.6461. Currently, the pair returns to the narrow range of 0.645-0.635. It is necessary to see whether the exchange rate falls below 0.63 or will rise above 0.645/65.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has fallen below 1.32. If it cannot immediately break through 1.32, it may open the door for the exchange rate to fall to 1.30.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Official Website]: Analysis of the latest trends of gold, US dollar index, Japanese yen, euro, pound, Australian dollar and RMB". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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