Oil prices hit two-week highs, trade tensions ease and suppress gold prices, US releases new round of Iran-related sanctions

Basic news

On Tuesday (May 13, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3234.88, gold prices fell nearly 3% on Monday, trade eased, reducing the market's risk aversion sentiment. U.S. crude oil trading was around 62 US dollars per barrel. Benefiting from the easing tariffs, the market increased expectations for demand, and oil prices closed at a two-week high on Monday.

Focus on the unemployment rate during the day

Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech, and the Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of members of the review of the April Monetary Policy Conference.

Stock Market

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 hitting its highest level since early March as a deal to temporarily cut tariffs, bringing some hope to ease the global trade war ignited by U.S. President Donald Trump in early April.

Investors feel some relief, tend toward riskier assets and reduce their focus on defensive investments. However, they are still waiting for a clear signal of how the tariffs will eventually be settled. "It's a relief rebound because there's anxiety and concern about the tariffs," said John Praveen, managing director of PaleoLeon, Princeton, New Jersey. "He added that the two largest economies in the world seem to be working to avoid the worst tariff situations. "They will reduce the scale to a more reasonable level, so the impact of tariffs may be more controllable and limited," said Praveen. "The market sees any progress as positive," said Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at investment firm SWBC.It is being celebrated before, but in the long run, there may be xmmarkets.cnplexities and we may see some negative effects. "

On Monday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow both hit their biggest single-day percentage gains since April 9, with the S&P breaking the 200-day moving average for the first time since late March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.81% to 42,410.10 points, the highest closing price since March 26.

The S&P 500 rose 3.26% to close at 5,844.19 points, the highest closing point since March 3 ; The Nasdaq rose 4.35% to close at 18,708.34 points, the highest closing point since February 28. The Nasdaq closed more than 22% higher than the lowest closing price of April's tariff sell-off, but is still nearly 8% lower than the record high closing price on December 16 last year.

Wall Street's "Fear Index CBOE Volatility Index hit a peak of 60 points in April due to tariff concerns, and fell below 20 points for the first time since the end of March on Monday. In terms of xmmarkets.cnmodities, safe-haven gold fell about 2.6%.

Of the 11 S&P sectors, defensive utilities were the only sector that fell by the close, with a drop of 0.68%, while the strongest sector was the weighted consumer discretionary category, with a gain of 5.66%, and technology stocks rose by 4.66%. In the technology sector, Apple rose 6.3%, after reports that the xmmarkets.cnpany is considering raising the price of the fall iPhone series.

The financial report season is xmmarkets.cning to an end, and so far, more than 90% of S&P 500 xmmarkets.cnpanies have released financial reports. Retail giant Walmart's earnings report will be released later this week. Several Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, will make public speeches this week.

According to data xmmarkets.cnpiled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice by the end of 2025, and the first rate cut is currently expected to be in September.

Gold market

Hazard-haven gold fell 3% on Monday after two major economies announced a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs, and risk-taking sentiment gradually heated up. Spot gold was $3225.28 per ounce, down 3%. U.S. gold futures closed down 3.5% at $3,228.

BullionVault research director Adrian Ash said, "Gold's frenzy reaction to the chaotic news from the White House last month made the precious metal easily affected by Trump's backlash. The atmosphere is more hopeful and gold is likely to find upside potential when this optimism is frustrated."

After the agreement was reached, the dollar soared to more than a month high and global stocks rebounded. The strengthening of the dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign investors. Traders are now awaiting data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index released on Tuesday to see where the Fed is going. Other key data to be released this week include producersPrice index and retail sales.

Spot silver fell 0.9% to $32.4 per ounce; platinum fell 1.9% to $976.06; palladium fell 3.4% to $942.69. Oil market

Oil prices rose about 1.5% on Monday to close at a two-week high, temporarily cutting tariffs, raising hopes for an end to a trade war between the world's two major economies. Brent crude rose 1.6% to close at $64.96 a barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 1.5% to close at $61.95. Both indicators of crude oil hit the highest settlement prices since April 28.

Tariff issues hit the brakes, causing Wall Street stock markets, the dollar and crude oil prices to rise sharply as people hope that the two world's largest oil consumers can end a trade war. "While the negotiation process may still face challenges, the downgrade exceeded expectations and represents an escalation of the prospects," said analysts from the Netherlands International Group in a report. "The trade deal could reduce the need for the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. This puts pressure on oil prices in early trading, as lower interest rates will boost oil demand.

In April, oil prices fell to their lowest point in four years as investors feared that the trade war would curb economic growth and oil demand. In addition, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to increase oil production more than previously expected.

Saudi Arabia's state oil xmmarkets.cnpany said it expects oil demand to remain resilient this year and will rise further if trade disputes ease.

In OPEC's second largest oil producer, crude oil exports are expected to drop to about 3.2 million barrels per day in May and June, which will be a significant decrease from previous months.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar rose sharply on Monday, as it reached a deal to temporarily cut reciprocal tariffs and calmed concerns that a trade war between the world's two largest economies could lead to a global recession.

The downgrade exceeded investors' expectations, and many originally expected it to be an introductory round of talks with almost no agreement.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn GlobalForex in New York, said, "It's 90 days, so this basically buys some time again, and I kind of think the United States blinks first." I didn't agree with the increase in tariffs at the beginning, but once the increase in tariffs, the United States seemed to retreat and did not get much exchange conditions.

The dollar index, which measures a basket of currencies such as the dollar rose 1.5% to 101.91; the euro fell 1.54% to 1.1074, the largest single-day drop since November 6.

Rising sentiment drives U.S. stocks to rise sharply, with the S&P 500 rising by more than 3%, and it has a drag on safe-haven currencies. The dollar rose 2.19% to 148.50 yen against the yen after hitting its highest level since April 3 by 148.64.

The US dollar rose 1.86% against the Swiss franc to 0.847, hitting its highest since April 10 intraday. The pound fell 1.07% against the dollar to $1.3162, the biggest single-day drop since April 7.

Although the dollar has strengthened for three consecutive weeks due to rising optimism about a possible trade deal, the dollar has fallen 2.2% since Trump announced the full imposition of tariffs on April 2 as Trump introduced uneven policies and exemptions have shaken confidence in U.S. assets.

The focus of this week will also focus on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Tuesday and April retail sales data released on Thursday to show the impact of the global trade conflict on the economy and on the Fed's expectations for further rate cuts.

Traders lowered their Fed and the European Central Bank's rate cut expectations on Monday as economic outlook improved after the trade deal was reached. The market currently believes that the Fed may cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points for the first time at its September meeting, while last week's view was July.

Wells Fargo analysts said the deal supported by the Fed's slow rate cut, supporting the xmmarkets.cnpany's view on the recent strengthening of the dollar.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions also appeared to ease over the weekend, further boosting risk sentiment.

India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire, after four days of uneasy battles occurred between the two nuclear powers.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would travel to Istanbul, where he would wait for a meeting with Russian President Putin, which brought a new turning point to the stagnant peace talks. Trump said on Monday that he was considering attending Ukrainian talks in Turkey later this week, and European countries are working to prompt the Kremlin to accept their request for a 30-day ceasefire in the Ukrainian war.

International News

Trump's "Great Tax Cut Act" is announced: 4 trillion tax cuts in a decade do not mention millionaires' tax proposal

The U.S. House of Representatives' Means and Means xmmarkets.cnmittee announced the tax bill ahead of a scheduled panel debate on Tuesday, which marks that the Republican-controlled House is pushing for a full-house vote on the legislation this month. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion over the next decade and cut spending at least $1.5 trillion. This legislative plan, which Trump calls "a grand and outstanding bill" is a central measure of his ruling agenda. The bill continues many tax cuts during Trump's first term that will expire at the end of this year. It contains some of Trump’s key campaign promises, but does not mention its proposals for taxing millionaires by rank. According to the draft text, personal income tax on tips and overtime income will be exempted by 2028. The most thornyOne of the issues in hand, including the controversial deadlock surrounding the increase in state and local tax deductions, has not been resolved. The draft plans to increase the maximum limit on state and local tax deductions for couples to jointly declare from $10,000 to $30,000, but sets a threshold for individual income of $200,000 or the income of joint applicants to double their income. However, some MPs from high-tax areas advocate greater tax relief.

The US Treasury Department issues a new round of Iran-related sanctions

On May 12 local time, the US Treasury Department issues a new round of Iran-related sanctions. It is reported that two individuals in Iran and a xmmarkets.cnpany were punished. The U.S. Treasury Department said the xmmarkets.cnpany is located in the industrial area of ​​Sham Sabad, Tehran, and is engaged in sensitive technology business.

Zelensky approved the U.S.-U.S. mineral agreement

On the 12th local time, the Ukrainian presidential website released a message saying that President Zelensky signed a law on approving the "Agreement on the Establishment of the U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S. On April 30, the United States and Ukraine jointly signed the "U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U. On May 8, Ukraine's Supreme Rada (Parliament) supported the ratification of the agreement with a 338 votes. Although the signing of the mineral agreement between the United States and Ukraine is regarded as a signal of easing relations, its actual effect remains to be seen. Some mineral consulting agencies analyzed that it may take 10 to 20 years to develop key strategic minerals in countries with mature mining industries, and there is currently a lack of sufficient data to prove that the development of most mineral resources in Ukraine is economically feasible. In addition, infrastructure such as electricity and transportation have been damaged by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the security prospects are unclear, investors may be cautious.

Trump hinted that he might personally participate in talks between Zelensky and Putin this week

U.S. President Trump said he is considering flying to Türkiye on Thursday to participate in possible talks between Russia and Ukrainian leader Putin and Zelensky. “I have considered flying over,” Trump said at the White House on Monday. "But I don't know where I will be on Thursday - there are so many meetings - but I did consider going through it in person. If I think things may be possible, maybe I will do that." Putin and Zelensky had been cautious about whether to have a talk, and Trump's remarks suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian heads are more likely to sit down and negotiate. Zelensky and several European leaders said they hope to achieve a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations.

Shigeru Ishiba: Japan will take "all-round measures" to deal with US tariff measures

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on the 12th that Japan will take "all-round measures" to deal with US tariffs and will take additional measures without hesitation if necessary. According to Japanese media reports, Shigeru Ishiba said at a meeting of the Budget xmmarkets.cnmittee of the Japanese House of Representatives that he could not accept reaching an agreement with the US without including the automotive field, nor would he sacrifice agriculture for the sake of the automobile industry to expand the import of US rice as a bargaining chip. Shigeru Ishiba also expressed his hope at the Liberal Democratic Party meeting that dayThe Japan-US tariff negotiations can achieve results on the basis of ensuring Japan's national interests. Japan and the United States have currently held two rounds of tariff negotiations. Japan continues to ask the United States to re-examine tariff measures, but the United States has always insisted that it cannot give Japan "special treatment" on automobiles, steel and other products.

Goldman Sachs pushed the expected time for the Fed's next rate cut to December

Goldman Sachs economists said, "In our new economic baseline scenario, the reason for interest rate cuts has shifted from 'providing insurance' to 'normalization' because economic growth remains relatively stable, the rise in unemployment has slowed slightly, and the urgency of policy support has decreased." Economists such as Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius said in a report on Monday, "We expect the Fed to be later than we had expected (12 Monthly, not July we expected) began to cut interest rates three times, and will cut interest rates at the next meeting instead of continuous interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs economist said, "We raised our 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the possibility of an economy falling into a recession within 12 months to 35%"

Domestic News

my country's navigation countries have 79 international routes continuously expanded

Since this year, my country's international route network has been continuously improved. As of now, the number of countries that are open to air has reached 79, and the number of international flights and passengers has further increased. At the same time, with the continuous support of favorable policies such as entry and exit, my country's inbound tourism has ushered in explosive growth. The continuous expansion of the international route network has provided people from all over the world with new convenient options. Coupled with the continuous support of favorable policies such as entry and exit, my country's inbound travel has ushered in explosive growth since this year. As a popular inbound travel destination in my country, Shanghai has had more than 1.8 million inbound foreign tourists this year, an increase of 48% year-on-year.

National Energy Administration: It will accelerate the research and introduction of accounting methods for non-fossil energy and electricity consumption

According to the National Energy Administration, on May 12, a policy promotion meeting on high-quality development of the green certificate market was held in Shenzhen, Guangdong. The meeting pointed out that we must work together to cultivate the green certificate market and accelerate the high-quality development of the green certificate market. The National Energy Administration will further improve supporting policies, strengthen the responsibilities of consumption to key energy-consuming units, accelerate the research and introduction of non-fossil energy power consumption accounting methods, organize green certificate prices monitoring, and promote better connection between electric carbon certificates. Relevant departments of local governments should continuously optimize the business environment and create basic conditions for conducting green certificate transactions and reasonable flow of green certificates. All green certificate and green electricity trading platforms should improve the platform green certificate and green electricity trading rules, optimize the trading mechanism, and innovate trading types, methods and deadlines based on the actual needs of enterprises and residents. All power users, especially key energy-consuming enterprises, must fulfill their responsibilities for green development, actively participate in green power consumption through green certificate and green electricity transactions, and contribute to the realization of the dual-carbon goal. All parties should continue to increase the publicity and promotion of green certificates, strengthen intergovernmental exchanges, encourage enterprises and research institutions to actively carry out pragmatic exchanges and cooperation with the international xmmarkets.cnmunity, and accelerate the promotion of China's green certificates to go global.

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