Demand for pound may increase, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on May 9

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes have mixed fluctuations, Dow futures fell 0.14%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.18%. European stocks maintained their uptrend, with the German DAX index rising 0.65%, and the European Stoke 50 index rising 0.5%.

2. Market news interpretation

Demand for pounds may increase

⑴ As the Bank of England did not see a dovish turn in the market's interest rate decision in May, the market's interest in pounds may increase in the future. ⑵ The Bank of England lowered bank interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% as expected, but the two xmmarkets.cnmittee members Mann and Peel voted to keep interest rates unchanged, a result that was beyond the market's expectations. ⑶ Although the Bank of England lowered its growth and inflation expectations, it did not adjust its policy guidance, reiterating that interest rate cuts will be gradual and cautious, and that quarterly rate cuts may continue unless the data deteriorates significantly. ⑷ The current market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped from 50% before the Bank of England's resolution to 17%. ⑸ In addition, the UK became the first country to reach a trade agreement with the United States, which to some extent eased the headwinds faced by the British pound. Although the 10% tariff still exists, the reduction of tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 0% has brought some xmmarkets.cnfort to the market. ⑹Looking forward, the UK and the EU will hold a summit on May 19, and British Prime Minister Kiel Stamer previously said he would seek to establish closer ties with the EU. ⑺ Therefore, before the summit, the pound may perform strongly in the crossover. The euro is currently supported at 0.8450/75, but ifIf it falls below this range, it may fall further to 0.8350. The resistance level is at 0.8505/10, which is also the position of the 200-hour simple moving average and exponential moving average.

Ukraine's euro cash reserves have increased significantly

⑴ Ukrainian Central Bank data shows that since early November, its euro-denominated international assets account for more than triple, reaching 10% in early May. ⑵Dollar holdings fell by 6 percentage points to 82.9% during the same period. As of May 1, Ukraine's total foreign exchange reserves were US$46.7 billion, of which US dollars accounted for US$39 billion. ⑶ This trend reflects the weakening of US support while the increasing EU aid. ⑷ According to people familiar with the matter, this also highlights Ukraine's efforts to establish closer economic ties with the EU and the decline in interest in dollar assets during the trade war. ⑸ A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Central Bank said that the euro funds received from the EU were kept in the central bank's government accounts and as part of international reserves, driving the upward trend of euro assets. ⑹In addition, the Ukrainian central bank has begun discussing with the IMF the possibility of replacing the US dollar with the euro as an official reference currency.

Japan government debt hit a new high: setting a new record for nine consecutive years

⑴ As of the end of fiscal year 2024, Japan's total government debt reached 1323.7155 trillion yen, an increase of 26.554 trillion yen from the end of fiscal year 2023. ⑵This debt scale consists of government bonds, borrowings and government short-term securities, setting a record high for nine consecutive years. ⑶ Japanese media pointed out that debt growth reflects the expansion of Japanese government's spending in response to rising prices, and tax revenue failed to fully cover expenditures, resulting in an intensification of fiscal difficulties.

Swedish industrial production fell for three consecutive months

⑴ Swedish industrial production fell by 3.5% year-on-year in March, down by the third consecutive month, according to data from the Swedish Bureau of Statistics on Monday. ⑵ Industrial production fell by 0.7% in February, and the decline in March further expanded. ⑶ Among the major manufacturing industries, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries performed the worst, down 15.2% year-on-year. ⑷ Service industry (excluding finance and insurance services) grew by 0.7% in March, a sharp slowdown from the 2.5% growth rate last month. ⑸From month-on-month, industrial production in March increased by 1.6% after seasonal adjustment. ⑹In addition, industrial orders in March increased by 10.7% year-on-year and 5.2% month-on-month.

Dutch industrial production grew for three consecutive months

⑴ Dutch industrial production increased by 1.3% year-on-year in March, achieving growth for the third consecutive month, according to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics on Friday. ⑵This growth rate accelerated from 0.4% in February. ⑶ Among the eight major industries, the mechanical repair and installation industry grew the fastest, reaching 11.9%, and the electrical equipment industry grew the 9.2%. ⑷ At the same time, the transportation equipment industry fell by 7.1%, the largest decline. ⑸From month-on-month, industrial production fell by 0.6% in March. ⑹In April, industrial producers' optimism about production expectations weakened xmmarkets.cnpared with March.

Norwegian inflation slowed to three-month low

⑴ Norway's consumer price inflation fell to a three-month low in April, and producer price growth also slowed to its slowest in five months, according to the Norwegian Bureau of Statistics on Friday. ⑵ Consumer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in March, the lowest level since January. ⑶ The core inflation rate also fell to a three-month low, from 3.4% in March to 3.0%. ⑷From month-on-month, overall consumer prices rose by 0.7%, and core prices rose by 0.5%. ⑸ Data shows that health and xmmarkets.cnmunication costs rose by 4.6% and 4.1% respectively, while clothing and footwear costs fell by 1.8%. ⑹Producer price inflation slowed sharply in April, up only 2.1% year-on-year, well below 11.5% in March. ⑺Monthly data also showed that the producer price index fell by 5.4% month-on-month, narrowing from the decline of 7.1% in March.

Germany Treasury yields rise: Trade optimism drives risk appetite

⑴Germany 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 2.6%, close to the highest level since April 8, as optimism in trade negotiations drives demand for risky assets. ⑵ On Thursday, U.S. President Trump and British Prime Minister Kiel Stamer announced a limited bilateral trade deal that, while maintaining 10% tariffs on British imports, lowered high U.S. tariffs on British automobile exports, laying the foundation for similar agreements with other countries. ⑶ In addition, trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing are about to resume this weekend, and the market expects high tariffs on Chinese goods may be eased. ⑷ Affected by changes in trade dynamics, the money market has raised its ECB deposit rate expectations to 1.67% from below 1.55% in mid-April, after the ECB had hinted that it could further reduce borrowing costs to cope with the potential drag on growth and inflation by U.S. tariffs.

Trade negotiations begin Vietnam accused Trump of unreasonable tariffs

As trade negotiations begin in Washington and Hanoi, the Vietnamese Ministry of Trade said the Trump administration’s so-called reciprocal tariffs were “unreasonable.” An article on the Vietnamese Ministry of xmmarkets.cnmerce website shows that at a meeting on Thursday, the Ministry of xmmarkets.cnmerce asked domestic xmmarkets.cnpanies and associations to send letters to U.S. officials xmmarkets.cnplaining about Trump's tariffs. It also directs groups and xmmarkets.cnpanies to work with U.S. partners to unite Americans and politicians in support of maintaining the normal flow of Vietnamese goods to the United States. Vietnam is one of some countries that have entered into trade negotiations with the United States. Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam on April 2, and later reduced the tariffs to 10% for 90 days to allow time to negotiate.

Ukraine's steel production has increased by 1% so far in 2025

Data released by the Ukrainian Steel Producers Alliance on Friday showed that despite the closure of coking coal mines in Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, the country's steel production continued to grow in the first four months of 2025. Ukrainian steel maker Metinvest suspended operations of Ukraine's only coking coal mine, citing the situation of security continues to be deteriorating as Russian troops advancechange. Data shows that from January to April this year, the country's crude steel production increased by 1%, from 2.4 million tons in the same period in 2024 to 2.43 million tons. Ukraine's steel production has been affected since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with the country reporting a 70.7% drop in production in 2022 to 6.3 million tons. It decreased to 6 million tons in 2023, but increased to 7.58 million tons in 2024.

Norwegian Central Bank's expectation of interest rate cuts: whether the signal tends to be consistent

⑴Norwegian latest inflation data and the recovery of Norwegian krone against the euro indicate that the Norwegian Central Bank may have room for interest rate cuts this year. ⑵Norway's core inflation rate fell to 3.0% year-on-year in April, down from 3.4% in March and 3.2% expected by the Norwegian central bank. ⑶ The Norwegian central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged on May 8 and hinted that interest rates may be cut in 2025. ⑷ If inflation continues to ease and trade tensions further ease, the Norwegian central bank may adjust its cautious position at its policy meeting in June to clarify the starting point of the interest rate cut cycle. ⑸ Previously, the Norwegian krone performed weakly in April, falling 3.75% against the euro, with high inflation and currency depreciation hindering interest rate cuts. ⑹ Now, as inflationary pressures ease and the kroner rebounds, the basis for interest rate cuts is improving. ⑺However, uncertainty surrounding growth and inflation still needs caution, and Norwegian benchmark interest rates may remain at 4.5% for the remainder of 2025. ⑻ However, the reason for the Norwegian central bank to take a more dovish stance is increasing.

Italian industrial production increased slightly, but the prospects were still subject to multiple challenges

⑴In March 2025, Italy's industrial production increased by 0.1% month-on-month, failing to meet the market's expected 0.5% growth, indicating that the country, as the third largest economy in the euro zone, is still facing difficulties. ⑵ The Italian National Bureau of Statistics (ISTAT) report showed that industrial production fell by 1.8% year-on-year in March, down for the 26th consecutive month. ⑶ However, according to quarterly data, Italian industrial production increased by 0.4% month-on-month in the first quarter of 2025, the first quarterly growth since the second quarter of 2022. ⑷The Italian economy grew by 0.3% month-on-month in the first quarter of 2025, slightly higher than expected. ⑸ However, the Italian Prime Minister Meloni's government has halved its economic growth forecast for 2025 from its previous level to 0.6%, slowing down from the 0.7% growth rate in 2024. ⑹The outlook for Italy's economic growth has been affected by multiple factors, including concerns caused by US tariff remarks and the difficulties faced by Rome in deploying the EU's COVID-19 recovery fund.

Iranian Foreign Minister will visit Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the 10th

On the 9th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghi will visit Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Bagae said that continuously strengthening relations with neighboring countries is Iran's principled policy. Araghi will go to Riyadh on the 10th to meet with senior Saudi officials and discuss bilateral and regional issues. He will then go to Doha that night to attend the Iran-Arab World Dialogue Summit.

3. Trends of major currency pairs before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, Euro/USD rose and is now at 1.1256, an increase of 0.25%. Before New York, the euro fell against the dollar in recent intraday trading, confirming a breakthrough of the key support of 1.1260, strengthening the continuation of the short-term dominant bear market correction trend, with prices trading along the slash.

GBP/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3276, an increase of 0.23%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell in recent intraday trading, breaking through the key support level of 0.3260, which represents a neckline that is obviously negatively formed on a short-term basis - a triple top pattern, reversing the previous bullish trend. This breakthrough is considered a strong technical signal of price behavior shift, supporting the continuation of the price-dominated bear market correction wave.

Spot gold: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3334.43, an increase of 0.89%. Before New York, gold prices rose on the last trading day and again stabilized above the EMA50, using its dynamic support, especially after reaching the oversold level (RSI), which saw a positive signal rising because it relies on support from the short-term major bullish trend line.

Spot silver: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.554, an increase of 0.39%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices rose on the last trading day, backed by positive signals on the (RSI), retesting the resistance of $32.70 and accompanied by resistance from its EMA50, strengthening the strength of the region as price resistance, especially under the influence of breaking the short-term bullish correction bias.

Crude oil market: As of 20:18 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 61.170, an increase of 2.10%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices rose in the upcoming intraday trading, affected by breaking through the short-term major bear trend line, supported by trading above the EAM50, which represents the dynamic support of the upcoming trading, trying to break through the key resistance level of $59.65 to announce the continuation of the bull correction trend, on the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) had negative overlap signals after reaching overbought levels, which could reduce the price increase.

4. Institutional View

RBC: Euro momentum weakens temporarily, and it should rebound once the Fed cuts interest rates

RBC Capital Markets predict that the upward momentum of the euro has now stalled, but it should rebound when the Fed starts cutting interest rates later this year, rising to $1.17 by the end of 2025 and $1.24 by the end of 2026. The euro has fallen since hitting its more than three-year high of $1.1574 on April 21 RBC said enthusiasm for selling the dollar has waned as trade tensions eased. However, the bank said in a report that a U.S. rate cut should help the euro, while the euro's share of global reserves could increase in the xmmarkets.cning years.

Scotiabank: The threshold for interest rate cuts is significantly raised. The Bank of England is expected to remain in place in June

Scotiabank said that given that the Bank of England chief economist Peel is one of two xmmarkets.cnmittee members supporting the maintenance of interest rates unchanged, and the United Kingdom The central bank's statement kept its policy guidance unchanged, namely, maintaining the pace of "gradual prudence" policy easing, and the threshold for the Bank of England to cut interest rates again in June has been greatly increased. We still expect the Bank of England to temporarily maintain the pace of quarterly rate cuts and choose to suspend interest rate cuts in June and resume interest rate cuts in August. CPI, employment and GDP data released in the next two weeks may inject some vitality into the June rate cut expectations. The market's current pricing of interest rate cuts for the meeting has been significantly reduced from about 15 basis points (60% probability) yesterday to only 5 basis points. (20% probability).

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The demand for pound may increase. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on May 9" was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for your support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time tightness, some of the content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: