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market news
USDJPY rebound band continues, approaching resistance level 146.53
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: USDJPY rebound band continues, approaching the resistance level 146.53". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market: USDJPY rebound band continues, approaching resistance level 146.53
XM foreign exchange market: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in the latest speech that if the economy meets expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to adjust its monetary easing. This means that after the Bank of Japan suspends twice, the probability of restarting interest rate hikes is still very high.
Kazuo Ueda also mentioned: The price situation will be closely monitored because the uncertainty of the global economy remains high. This attitude is consistent with that of Bank of England Governor Carney, who said: I think the only thing we can be sure of is that in the world we are currently in, a lot will happen in the next six weeks or so. Here is a hint at the impact that Trump's radical foreign policy may cause. It is precisely because of this uncertainty that the Bank of Japan suspended interest rate hikes for two consecutive periods, and USDJPY can also get the opportunity to rebound.
▲XM chart
In the medium and long term, the core factor that determines the direction of the yen is still the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. In March, July, 2024 and January 2025, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 20 basis points, 15 basis points and 25 basis points respectively, showing signs of gradual expansion. Interest rate decisions in March and May this year remained unchanged, mainly based on Trump's radical policy considerations. Once uncertainty decreases in the future, the Bank of Japan will inevitably restart interest rate hikes, and the yen will also be significantly boosted (under the premise that Japan's inflation rate is stable). The medium- and long-term trend of Japanese bond yields follows policy interest rates, but the medium- and short-term volatility is relatively highStrong, suitable as a reference for USDJPY trend. Since the end of March, Japanese bond yields have continued to decline, which gives USDJPY an opportunity to rebound.
▲XM chart
From the economic data perspective, Japan's xmmarkets.cnprehensive inflation rate has the latest value of 3.6%, which has the characteristics of high inflation; the core CPI annual rate has the latest value of 3.2%, which also has the characteristics of high inflation. One of the core tasks of the Bank of Japan is to maintain price stability. Faced with a high inflation growth rate, the benchmark interest rate of 0.5% is obviously not restrictive and needs to continue to increase interest rates. Judging from historical data, the inflation rate in the United States is showing a downward trend, so the Federal Reserve is gradually lowering interest rates to prevent an economic recession. Instead of falling, Japan's inflation rate remained at a relatively high level, so the Bank of Japan basically could not follow the Fed's interest rate cut. In the case of monetary policy divergence, the yen may become the biggest winner in this round of the weak cycle of the US dollar index.
▲XM chart
On the trend structure perspective, at the daily level, USDJPY is in a significant short trend. From January 10th to the present, there have been two decline bands in total, with the first round falling to a lowest of 146.5 and the second round falling to a lowest of 139.8, hitting a new low since September 2024. Starting from April 22, as the US dollar index strengthened, USDJPY entered a rebound state. Before the negotiation results between the United States and the United Kingdom came out, technical analysis believed that 145.91 was the rebound resistance level and a temporary high. After the negotiation results came out, market sentiment took a major turn, and 145.91 was broken yesterday. We believe that the low point of the first round of decline is 146.53, which is a reliable resistance level for the current rebound band. If this point is further broken, USDJPY may enter a bottoming state.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.
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