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The US dollar index remains downward, the market is waiting for the initial data requested by the United States

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Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The US dollar index remains downward, and the market is waiting for the initial data of the United States to request." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Thursday, the US dollar index fell slightly. This trading day, we need to pay attention to the Bank of England's interest rate resolution, changes in the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States, the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in April, and the New York Fed's 1-year gold increase expectation in April. Russia implemented a ceasefire from 0:00 on May 8 to 0:00 on May 11 local time, and investors also need to pay attention to the relevant news about the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.78. After the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, the US dollar index initially fell to 99.50 due to the rising risks in both the continued inflation and its dual tasks. The policy statement conveyed a cautious tone, emphasizing that while the labor market remains solid, uncertainty about the economic outlook increased. Traders briefly expected as many as three rate cuts this year, but market confidence waned as the press conference proceeded. Technically, on the upside, the first resistance level of the US dollar index was 100.22, which supported the index in September 2024, and breaking through the 100.00 integer mark will be a bullish signal. A strong rebound will return to 101.90, a level that has been a key level in December 2023 and once again serves as the basis for the reversal of the head and shoulders pattern in summer 2024. On the other hand, the 97.73 support level could be tested quickly under any substantial bearish headlines. Further down, the relatively weak technical support is at 96.94, followed by the lower limit of this new price range. These will be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning new lows not seen since 2022.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1317, and the euro/dollar remained medium on Wednesday, still hovering around the 1.1300 mark, after the latest Fed interest rate decisions matched traders’ expectations, despite the new “waiting and watching” warning from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The economic calendar for Europe remains strictly at the middle level this week, leaving Fiber traders to wait for the Fed’s increasingly cautious attitude. Technically, the euro/dollar found a temporary bottom above the 1.1200 mark, supporting the price movement into the 1.1300 zone. The bulls fell from a more than a month high that just exceeded 1.1500, but the downward action still is limited as euro traders wait for key market development before pushing any direction.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3297, GBP/USD fell back on Wednesday, with a drop of one-60, and the market remained firmly on the side of the safe-haven currency USD. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained interest rates as a general expectation, but Fed policymakers still insisted on a "wait and see" attitude, which suppressed the risk appetite of the mid-week market. The Bank of England (BoE) will hold a meeting on Thursday and is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. Technically, GBP/USD fell significantly, falling below the main price mark of 1.3300, and the price trend fell into a short-term consolidation trap. Despite intraday weakness, GBP/USD remained firm at the recent momentum high, and trading was close to a multi-year high of above 1.3400.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. Wall Street analysts: Signs of recession are exposed behind the U.S. employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 2nd of this month showed that the number of non-farm jobs in the United States increased by 177,000 in April, far higher than the market expectations of 138,000. In this regard, Wall Street analysts in the United States pointed out that although this number performed strongly, it is difficult to conceal the signs of the arrival of the U.S. economic recession. JPMorgan Chase Chief Asset Management Global strategist David Kelly said that although non-farm employment data does not show that US xmmarkets.cnpanies are laying off large numbers of employees or the unemployment rate is rising sharply, if US tariff policies are not reversed in time, the impact of tariff policies will eventually pull the US economy into the abyss of recession.

2. Powell: Tariffs are "far beyond expectations", and the Fed's process to achieve its goals may be postponed until next year

Federal Chairman Powell said at a press conference that the tariffs imposed by US President Trump on April 2 local time "far beyond expectations." CurrentTariff levels could lead to slowing economic growth and could drive long-term inflation to rise. "If the announced significantly increased tariffs continue to be implemented, inflation and unemployment may rise and economic growth may slow down. The impact on inflation may be short-lived, reflected in one-time changes in price levels, but may also be more durable," Powell said. Powell said that given the scope and size of the tariffs, the risk of inflation and rising unemployment will certainly increase. If tariffs are ultimately maintained at current levels, the Fed's process to achieve its goals could be delayed until next year.

3. Goldman Sachs raises U.S. inflation expectations

Goldman Sachs economists expect U.S. core PCE inflation to grow by 3.8% by the end of 2025 (previously forecast at 3.5%) and 2.7% by the end of 2026 (previously forecast at 2.3%). xmmarkets.cnpared with these forecasts, the latest core PCE data was only 2.6%. Goldman Sachs said the dollar weakened due to tariff news, which amplified the direct impact of tariffs on prices rather than offset it.

4. South Korea's foreign exchange reserves fell to their lowest level in five years at the end of April. South Korea's foreign exchange reserves fell to their lowest level in five years in April, as the authorities took measures to stabilize the market to alleviate the impact of global trade fluctuations. Data released by the Bank of Korea on Thursday showed that as of the end of April, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves were US$404.67 billion, a decrease of US$4.99 billion, the lowest level since April 2020 and the largest monthly decline since April 2024. The Bank of Korea said foreign exchange swap transactions with South Korean pension funds were one of the factors that led to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves. The transaction is intended to temporarily reduce dollar demand in the foreign exchange market. In early April, the won fell to its weakest level in 16 years due to the influence of US President Trump's xmmarkets.cnprehensive tariff policy. Later, the Korean won/USD reversed its trend and rose 3.3% that month, the largest single-month increase since November 2023.

5. Asian currencies have strengthened and reduced their allocation of US dollar assets has become a trend. Recently, Asian currencies have appreciated significantly against the US dollar, and Asian exporters, insurance institutions, etc. have closed their positions in US dollar positions, accelerating the return of funds. The above changes are just a small step for global investors to reduce their asset allocation. Analysts believe that in the future, no matter how the US tariff policy is adjusted, further reducing the allocation of US dollar assets has become an inevitable choice for many countries, regions and institutions. Zhang Jiqiang, director of Huatai Securities Research Institute and chief analyst of fixed income, believes that unless the US tariff policy significantly changes, the US dollar will have a weak trend. The US tariff policy weakens the US dollar cycle, and its policy uncertainty weakens the US dollar's safe-haven attributes, leading to the "American exceptionalism" shaking and driving capital outflows. Under the influence of multiple factors, the US dollar continues to weaken.

Institutional View

1. Minsheng Macro: The Federal Reserve's subjective willingness to cut interest rates in June is not strong

The research report of Minsheng Securities' macro team said, why do we think the Federal Reserve's subjective willingness to cut interest rates in June is not strong? One is the United StatesThe current data-based policy framework is "lagging", and the biggest problem before the June meeting is the inability to obtain enough data to give the Fed the courage to take measures. Before the interest rate meeting from June 18 to 19, the Fed could only see the CPI and PPI in May, and the confidence given by previous data is insufficient. Second, the time of the June interest rate meeting was held was very "accidentally". The White House has set a deadline for the 90-day tariff suspension window on July 8, the deadline for the planned passing of the new tax cuts and expenditure bill is July 4, and the Fed's interest rate meeting is June 18-19. Before the emergence of these two policies, forward-looking interest rate cuts mean taking on major risks - if tariff negotiations and tax cuts go smoothly, the Federal Reserve has every reason to "slowly" on easing.

2. Goldman Sachs: It will take some time to weaken the job market, and it is highly likely to stay wait-and-see next month. Ashish Shah, chief investment officer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Public Investment, said that the Federal Reserve is still waiting and waiting for the elimination of uncertainty. Recent employment data support the Fed's position, and the labor market needs to weaken enough to restart the easing cycle. However, any weakness in the labor market may take several months to show up, and we think the possibility of maintaining interest rates again at the meeting next month is greater.

3. Dutch International: The euro may benefit from de-dollarization, but there is still a way to go.

Dutch International analysts said in a report that the euro may benefit from de-dollarization of foreign exchange reserves, but there is more work to be done to increase the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets. “If central banks’ demand for the euro returns to the level at the beginning of this century, euro-denominated foreign exchange reserves could increase by about 450 billion euros.” Net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds are absorbed primarily by domestic private investors, while major Asian investors are exiting the market, which helps de-dollarization. To attract these funds, Europe needs to provide a high-quality, high-liquidity asset pool to xmmarkets.cnpete with U.S. Treasury bonds.

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market news

The US dollar index remains downward, the market is waiting for the initial data requested by the United States

Analysis of major currencies

2. Powell: Tariffs are "far beyond expectations", and the Fed's process to achieve its goals may be postponed until next year

3. Goldman Sachs raises U.S. inflation expectations

Institutional View

1. Minsheng Macro: The Federal Reserve's subjective willingness to cut interest rates in June is not strong

3. Dutch International: The euro may benefit from de-dollarization, but there is still a way to go.

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XM Forex Trading Platform

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market news

The US dollar index remains downward, the market is waiting for the initial data requested by the United States

Analysis of major currencies

2. Powell: Tariffs are "far beyond expectations", and the Fed's process to achieve its goals may be postponed until next year

3. Goldman Sachs raises U.S. inflation expectations

Institutional View

1. Minsheng Macro: The Federal Reserve's subjective willingness to cut interest rates in June is not strong

3. Dutch International: The euro may benefit from de-dollarization, but there is still a way to go.

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason