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market news
Swiss National Bank has expressed intervention, the appreciation trend of Swiss franc may change
Wonderful Introduction:
Only by setting off can you reach your ideals and destinations, only by working hard can you achieve brilliant success, and only by sowing can you gain. Only by pursuing can one taste a dignified person.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM official website]: The Swiss National Bank has expressed its intervention, and the appreciation trend of the Swiss franc may change." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market: Swiss National Bank has expressed its intervention, and the appreciation trend of the Swiss franc may change
XM foreign exchange market: Swiss National Bank Governor Martin Schlegel said that the appreciation trend of the Swiss franc has been very significant. If price stability is needed, policy makers are ready to intervene at any time; our responsibility is to stabilize Swiss prices, and we must use interest rates and exchange rates to ensure this. With the weakening of the US dollar index, the Swiss franc has appreciated by more than 9% xmmarkets.cnpared to the US dollar this year. In the Swiss trade surplus, the local currency continues to appreciate, suppressing the total export volume.
▲XM chart
The above chart is an overlay of Switzerland's core inflation rate and trade difference. The Swiss franc has been appreciating since the beginning of this year, but the trade gap curve is still steadily upward. The impact of the appreciation of the Swiss franc on the export industry is not obvious yet. The "price stability" mentioned by the Governor of the Swiss National Bank has two meanings. One is to suppress it through tightening monetary policy when high inflation occurs. Switzerland's core CPI annual rate in April was only 0.6%, which obviously does not conform to the characteristics of high inflation. The second is deflation and prices continue to decline, and the Swiss National Bank has to adopt a loose monetary policy to boost demand. Since February 2023, Switzerland's inflation rate has dropped from 2.4% to 0.6%, and prices are about to enter a state of zero growth. Schlegel's speech was obviously aimed at the second situation.
▲XM chart
Convert the Swiss National Bank's policy interest rate and the Swiss 10-year Treasury bond yieldBy superposition, it can be found that the resonance between the two is significant. The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates since March 2024. So far, it has cut interest rates five times in total, with the benchmark interest rate lowering from the highest 1.75% to the current 0.25%. On June 19, the Swiss National Bank will announce the results of the latest interest rate resolution. The mainstream expects the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, and the benchmark interest rate will also drop to the limit of 0%. With the decline in interest rates, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds is also falling simultaneously. For the Swiss franc, bond yields are the pricing anchor of currency value, and the Swiss franc has the motivation to depreciate without considering the US dollar and the Federal Reserve.
▲XM chart
From the trend structure perspective, at the daily level, the Swiss franc is in a smooth short trend. The three-round decline bands that have appeared are constantly expanding, the pullback ratio continues to decrease, and the probability of idle long in the future is relatively low. Although the Swiss National Bank's interest rate cut policy is conducive to the USDCHF's stop falling and rebound, the Federal Reserve is also cutting interest rates, and Trump's radical policies are negative for the USD index, so it is very difficult for USDCHF to stop falling. Since the Swiss National Bank president has expressed his opinion on interfering in the exchange rate, there is a possibility of event-driven change in the market. Focus on the medium and short-term resistance level of 0.8333. Once this point is broken up, USDCHF will usher in a larger rebound.
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The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The Swiss National Bank has expressed its intervention, and the appreciation trend of the Swiss franc may change". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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