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market analysis

USD/NTD fell sharply as Taiwan dollar hits historic surge in trade speculation

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar/Taiwan dollar fell sharply as the Taiwan dollar hit a historic soar in trade speculation." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The US dollar/TNY dollar fell to the 28.90 area on Monday, and the historic collapse intensified after a further 5.7% decline on Friday, based on a 4.4% decline. The NTD rose more than 10% in two days, the sharpest rebound in more than three decades, triggering wider speculation that Asian economies could allow their currencies to appreciate in order to gain leverage in trade talks with the United States.

Despite Taiwan’s central bank denying intervention or coordination with the United States, Governor Yang Jinlong was forced to hold a rare press conference, reiterating that there was no exchange rate discussion with Washington. However, the market interprets the passive position of the central bank—and the inflow of hot money from exporters—as the informal green light of appreciation. This move has lifted the NTD to its strongest level since mid-2022, amplifying the volatility of the Asian foreign exchange market.

This dynamic affects other major currencies in the region. The dollar fell 0.7% against the Japanese yen and Australian dollars, which hit a five-month high. The offshore yuan fell back after reaching a six-month high at 7.1881. Market sentiment has changed rapidly, believing that the Trump administration’s peak tariffs may have passed, driving a rebound in risk-sensitive assets and emerging market currencies.

In the United States, economic indicators are still mixed. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.6 in April, with non-farm employment unexpectedly rising to 177,000, although broader uncertainties surrounding tariffs and Fed policies still put pressure on the dollar. The market is still pricing a rate cut later this year, although it is slightly slower than last week.

Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, the US dollar/TND is in a free decline. In a breakthroughAfter multiple support zones, the pair is now hovering near a three-year low. The instant support is at 28.80, followed by 28.60 and 28.40. Resistance levels may appear around 29.60, 29.90 and 30.20. The momentum indicator confirms the bearish bias, and the possibility of further downward trend cannot be ruled out unless the Taiwan authorities intervene or the trade rhetoric changes substantially.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar/TNY dollar fell sharply because the Taiwan dollar made a historic surge in trade speculation". It was carefully xmmarkets.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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USD/NTD fell sharply as Taiwan dollar hits historic surge in trade speculation

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