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market analysis

Gold focuses on the high point decline and retreat 618, and the resistance of European and American Japanese lines becomes the key

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold focuses on the gains and losses of the high point decline and 618, and the resistance of the European and American Japanese line becomes the key." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

The dollar was sold in Asia on Monday, stemming from market concerns about US policies. The United States may impose tariffs on semiconductors, and rumors have prompted East Asian currencies to appreciate in bilateral trade negotiations. Trump also announced a 100% tariff on overseas films, causing concerns about the trade war. Although the U.S. Treasury Secretary defended the tariff measures, the market did not recognize them. Traders keep a close eye on Fed Chairman Powell’s xmmarkets.cnments on Wednesday. Since December last year, the Federal Reserve has maintained its policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Although it is expected that this time will remain unchanged, tariff policies have increased economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts have changed, and Goldman Sachs and others have postponed expectations. Gold performed well under uncertainty, with an increase of more than 26%, and Goldman Sachs expects it to continue to be stronger than silver. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is hit by market chaos. In terms of global central banks, the Bank of England may cut interest rates, while the Bank of Norway and Swedish central banks may keep interest rates unchanged. The U.S. service industry rebounded in April but inflationary pressure increased, and xmmarkets.cnpanies were worried about the impact of tariffs and government spending cuts. At present, investors need to pay attention to the news about the US trade account and geopolitical and international trade situation in March.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 100.027 on the day, and fell to 99.435 at the lowest, and finally closed at 99.771. Looking back at the market performance on Monday, the price fell under pressure in the early trading period first, and then continued to fluctuate and fall. For the US market, the price quickly fell to the daily support area and stopped rising. Although the negative line finally ended, the price still ran above the daily support.

From the multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 103.30 area at the weekly levelResistance, then from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the price has reached 99.40. From the band, the price has broken through and stabilized with the daily resistance. The previous resistance becomes support, and the subsequent bands are bullish. In the short term, the 99.80 regional support is on the 4-hour front, and the price is currently consolidating at the key position in the four-hour front. Due to the large number of bands, we pay attention to further breaking through the four-hour resistance in the four-hour front. Once we stand firm, we are expected to make further efforts. Overall, as long as the price is above the daily support, we will pay attention to further fluctuations and rises, and when we break the upward position of 100.05, we will continue to pay attention to the 100.30-100.80 area.

The US dollar index has a long range of 99.40-50, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 100.30-100.80

Gold

In terms of gold, the price of gold generally showed an upward trend on Monday, with the highest price rising on the day at 3337.46, and the lowest fell to 3237.51, closing at 3333.6. In response to the price of gold in the morning trading on Monday, relying on four-hour support to further increase its strength, and then tested it to the daily resistance position as scheduled, but the price did not show a reversal signal at this position, but instead closed strongly again. In the future, the market should pay attention to the 3386-3387 range. This position is the 618 position where the price fell from the high point. If this position does not break, it will be under pressure in the future. Only when it stands firm again will it rise.

From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four-month period, so according to the rhythm, there have been four consecutive positives. For the current May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3070 area. So from a mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view, and the price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise. Judging from the daily line level, the current price resistance is in the 3323 area. This position is a key watershed in the band trend. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the daily line can truly stand firm in the future. At the same time, for the short-term four-hour price support in the 3305 area, the gains and losses of this position determine the key to the short-term trend. The short-term price is in the first hour and is testing the 3386-3387 range again in the morning session. The low point of today's morning session becomes a key watershed. The 3387 area above (the 618 position of the high point retracement) is the key resistance. Before you actually break this position, you will first look at the pressure before you pay attention to whether the support can break down.

Gold is short near 3380, defense is 3390, target 3325-3305 (if you break down, it continues to be under pressure)

Europe and the United States

Europe and the United States, European and American prices on MondayThe overall quad is in a state of fluctuation. The price fell to 1.1292 on the day, and rose to 1.1364 on the spot and closed at 1.1313. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Monday, the price of the morning opened directly received support and further rises. After that, the price tested to the daily resistance area as scheduled and stopped. The price continued to be under pressure after the US session, and finally the long upper lead was left above the daily line. From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported at 1.0800, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0900 area, and from the perspective of the mid-line, the price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price breaks the daily support after fluctuating at a recent high level. At the same time, the price continues to suppress the daily resistance after breaking down, and is treated with short-term short-term at 1.1360. From the short-term four-hour level, the current four-hour level is supported in the 1.1320 area. Since the price is consolidating up and down at the key four-hour position, we will continue to pay attention to the daily resistance pressure performance in the future.

Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1350-60, defense is 40 points, target 1.1320-1.1260

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Tuesday, May 6, 2025

①14:30 Switzerland April CPI monthly rate

②16:30 Eurozone May Sentix Investor Confidence Index

③21:45 US April S&P Global Services PMI Final Value

④22:00 US April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

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Gold focuses on the high point decline and retreat 618, and the resistance of European and American Japanese lines becomes the key

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Gold focuses on the high point decline and retreat 618, and the resistance of European and American Japanese lines becomes the key

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